Anybody ever heard of R/S an elite senior-to-be (for class balancing purposes) only to see him turn pro after that R/S season and with 1 season of eligibility left?  I thought he might go pro after last season, but he stayed along with every other kid on my Illinois team.  So I'm thinking about R/S Wadlington b/c I'd be thin at guard next season if he graduates with my other 2 senior guards.  I'd hate for him to turn pro "early" if I do R/S him, because obviously I'd have wasted a great player's last season in the hopes he'd stick around for the following season. 

FWIW, he's pretty much maxed out in at least half the categories. 

It's a risky strategy I guess, but I was wondering if anybody had any personal experience or seen such a case like I'm describing?

What you're describing is so exceedingly rare, I'd be pretty shocked if someone had that happen.

That guy is good enough to leave early in theory, but it's a crap shoot.

FYI, that is the highest overall rating (867) for a team to start the season that I've ever seen. The fact that you have four 900+ seniors to start the season is both an embarrassment of riches and absolutely frigging stunning that one (or more, really) of them didn't leave early. That's flat-out miraculous -- you should be making ritualistic sacrifices to the HD gods for that.

(In fact, there's only one other team even above 800 ... I don't think I've ever seen a team in DI that was such an obvious favorite to win the title. In D2, yes, but not in DI.) 

yeah, I know it's a real rare case, but I'm leaning to trying it.  I can always take off the R/S if an injury pops up or my team isn't as fluid as I think it could be w/o him. 

But,  yes, expectations are VERY high in Champaign.  We're +29 on the OR scale fwiw, though +25 if I R/S the kid in question.  I'm sure this will be my greatest team I can ever put together in HD.  So yeah, I'm setting myself up for embarassing disappointment, esp. if the kid turns pro and our NT run is cut short (again).

OR scale?

play him, win a title with that kick *** team, and then recruits will fall in your lap..

I did it once, but he wasn't a threat to leave early really. He did help me win the NT the next season and put up a campaign that almost saw him get drafted. I would go for it. You are deep enough that you really won't miss him.

Posted by calipariuk on 7/31/2011 10:59:00 PM (view original):
play him, win a title with that kick *** team, and then recruits will fall in your lap..

If there were some decent guards around me, this decision would be more straight forward.  I'd play him and worry about replacing him after the season.  But there aren't many  freshman guards close by that I'd chase, thus the dilemma.

Posted by jamespastine on 7/31/2011 8:39:00 PM (view original):
OR scale?

It's a homemade scale oldresorter came up with (thus OR scale), though really, I'm sure there's a pretty high correlation b/w his scale and simply looking at the avg. team rating.

Score each kid on your roster as follows:

Rating b/w 750-824 = 1 pt
" " 825-900 = 2 pts
Rating > 901 = 3 pts

For each senior you have that fits into one of the categories above, add another point

Sum up all the points.  Then he gave intervals (which I forget what they were) for the total score, something like 5-10 pts = PIT worthy team, 10-15 pts = NT worthy team, 15-20 pts = NT contender, 20+ pts = a very special team.....or something like this.  I guess the exact ntervals would be pretty helpful, but again I forget what they were.

i think the intervals have changed in seble's new engine (although i don't think OR actually published new ones - just that new intervals would apply). but i think it was more like, 14+ was NT title contender, 6-8 was a good chance to make the NT, etc... anything in the 20s used to be unsightly. but now it seems like that is probably not nearly as uncommon.

for all the sensationalism surrounding the "coin flip dynasty" days, one would think somebody would have brought that term back, considering among the top 10 teams, there is considerably more coin flipping today than i can ever recall seeing.