How to attack a good FCP? Topic

bargearse
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Posted by zhawks on 9/22/2011 9:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by zhawks on 9/21/2011 12:41:00 PM (view original):
Don't over think it.
I'll repeat myself
Are you sure you're in the right forums?
10/10/2011 9:03 PM
isack24
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Posted by dahsdebater on 9/23/2011 4:51:00 PM (view original):
Posted by ike1024 on 9/22/2011 9:13:00 PM (view original):
There's literally no way for you guys to back up what you are saying.  The only way to know would be to run millions of possessions with the exact same settings/ratings other than tempo.  
Same with you, but a few seasons ago I did run overall stats for every game involving end-of-season ranked human-coached teams against other top-50 RPI teams for Knight D2 and D3 and found that there were diminishingly small variances in per-possession outcomes between tempos.  Do the people that disagree with me have anything whatsoever to back up their assertion that tempo DOES impact per-possession results?  Or that's just how you want it to work so you're convinced that it must be?

Except that I'm not really making any definitive statements.  I'm simply stating that the logic changes, which it does.  By how much, I don't know.

I fully admit that my experiences are purely anecdotal.  And apparently you have some minimal statistical data, but the only way to "prove" anything, would be to run a whole lot more games with the exact same teams at different tempos.  I tend to agree that the engine is not that complex, but I also think it's probably more complex than you're making it out to be.  Then again, I can't figure out a way to beat bad teams these days, so what do I know?

I do think it's funny that you are so condescending on a message board for a fake (albeit awesome) sports simulation game, but that's another issue entirely.

10/11/2011 10:54 AM (edited)
apollo7
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For what its worth, I kept fouling out too many guys and losing against the two FCP teams in my conference.  I was running uptempo.  I changed to slow tempo, didn't foul out, and won.  I have come to the conclusion that to beat a FCP you just have to play to your strengths, slow it down, and pray to the HD gods.
10/11/2011 12:26 PM
apollo7
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Posted by apollo7 on 10/11/2011 12:26:00 PM (view original):
For what its worth, I kept fouling out too many guys and losing against the two FCP teams in my conference.  I was running uptempo.  I changed to slow tempo, didn't foul out, and won.  I have come to the conclusion that to beat a FCP you just have to play to your strengths, slow it down, and pray to the HD gods.
Small sample size I know but:

Uptempo:  http://whatif.cincinatti.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7438268
Uptempo:  http://whatif.cincinatti.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7449305
Slowdown:  http://whatif.cincinatti.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7465209
10/11/2011 12:31 PM
tianyi7886
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Posted by apollo7 on 10/11/2011 12:31:00 PM (view original):
Posted by apollo7 on 10/11/2011 12:26:00 PM (view original):
For what its worth, I kept fouling out too many guys and losing against the two FCP teams in my conference.  I was running uptempo.  I changed to slow tempo, didn't foul out, and won.  I have come to the conclusion that to beat a FCP you just have to play to your strengths, slow it down, and pray to the HD gods.
Small sample size I know but:

Uptempo:  http://whatif.cincinatti.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7438268
Uptempo:  http://whatif.cincinatti.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7449305
Slowdown:  http://whatif.cincinatti.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7465209
Look at the fg% in those games. That explains the results much more than tempo or fouls. 
10/11/2011 12:49 PM
isack24
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But you guys are asserting that tempo has nothing to do with per-possession outcomes.  At least that's what dahs is arguing.  A change in FG% at different tempos would directly refute that.
10/11/2011 12:54 PM
apollo7
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I admitted it was a small sample size.  Like, I said, you still have to pray to the HD gods.
10/11/2011 12:55 PM
apollo7
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As a team, we shot .516 from the field during the season.  When running uptempo against FCP my average fell to the basement.  Maybe there is something else going on here.  Here are my other losses against the other FCP team in my conference:

uptempo:  http://whatif.cincinatti.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7442139
uptempo:  http://whatif.cincinatti.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7452305
slowdown:  http://whatif.cincinatti.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7466241

The slowdown was still a loss but my FG% went pretty much back to normal.
10/11/2011 1:00 PM
apollo7
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This does make sense.  When you slow it down you are looking for better shots.  So, again, I say against a FCP team, play to your strengths, slow it down, and pray.

10/11/2011 1:02 PM
dacj501
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if you are a decent shooting team that makes sense. BUT, like you say, play to your strengths. Maybe you have a very dominant rebounding team, so you don't mind a few more missed shots, figuring you'll get a good % of them back, so you'd want more shots right? Uptempo would be the way to go then...
10/11/2011 1:56 PM
dahsdebater
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Posted by isack24 on 10/11/2011 10:54:00 AM (view original):
Posted by dahsdebater on 9/23/2011 4:51:00 PM (view original):
Posted by ike1024 on 9/22/2011 9:13:00 PM (view original):
There's literally no way for you guys to back up what you are saying.  The only way to know would be to run millions of possessions with the exact same settings/ratings other than tempo.  
Same with you, but a few seasons ago I did run overall stats for every game involving end-of-season ranked human-coached teams against other top-50 RPI teams for Knight D2 and D3 and found that there were diminishingly small variances in per-possession outcomes between tempos.  Do the people that disagree with me have anything whatsoever to back up their assertion that tempo DOES impact per-possession results?  Or that's just how you want it to work so you're convinced that it must be?

Except that I'm not really making any definitive statements.  I'm simply stating that the logic changes, which it does.  By how much, I don't know.

I fully admit that my experiences are purely anecdotal.  And apparently you have some minimal statistical data, but the only way to "prove" anything, would be to run a whole lot more games with the exact same teams at different tempos.  I tend to agree that the engine is not that complex, but I also think it's probably more complex than you're making it out to be.  Then again, I can't figure out a way to beat bad teams these days, so what do I know?

I do think it's funny that you are so condescending on a message board for a fake (albeit awesome) sports simulation game, but that's another issue entirely.

So your "anecdotal experiences" hold more weight with you than a sample of several hundred games?
10/11/2011 2:06 PM
dahsdebater
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Posted by apollo7 on 10/11/2011 1:00:00 PM (view original):
As a team, we shot .516 from the field during the season.  When running uptempo against FCP my average fell to the basement.  Maybe there is something else going on here.  Here are my other losses against the other FCP team in my conference:

uptempo:  http://whatif.cincinatti.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7442139
uptempo:  http://whatif.cincinatti.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7452305
slowdown:  http://whatif.cincinatti.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7466241

The slowdown was still a loss but my FG% went pretty much back to normal.
That's a .05 jump in field goal percentage.  That's like 2 shots.  If you're trying to read engine performance out of 2 shots in 1 game you're going to find evidence for all kinds of things that don't actually exist.
10/11/2011 2:08 PM
isack24
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Posted by dahsdebater on 10/11/2011 2:06:00 PM (view original):
Posted by isack24 on 10/11/2011 10:54:00 AM (view original):
Posted by dahsdebater on 9/23/2011 4:51:00 PM (view original):
Posted by ike1024 on 9/22/2011 9:13:00 PM (view original):
There's literally no way for you guys to back up what you are saying.  The only way to know would be to run millions of possessions with the exact same settings/ratings other than tempo.  
Same with you, but a few seasons ago I did run overall stats for every game involving end-of-season ranked human-coached teams against other top-50 RPI teams for Knight D2 and D3 and found that there were diminishingly small variances in per-possession outcomes between tempos.  Do the people that disagree with me have anything whatsoever to back up their assertion that tempo DOES impact per-possession results?  Or that's just how you want it to work so you're convinced that it must be?

Except that I'm not really making any definitive statements.  I'm simply stating that the logic changes, which it does.  By how much, I don't know.

I fully admit that my experiences are purely anecdotal.  And apparently you have some minimal statistical data, but the only way to "prove" anything, would be to run a whole lot more games with the exact same teams at different tempos.  I tend to agree that the engine is not that complex, but I also think it's probably more complex than you're making it out to be.  Then again, I can't figure out a way to beat bad teams these days, so what do I know?

I do think it's funny that you are so condescending on a message board for a fake (albeit awesome) sports simulation game, but that's another issue entirely.

So your "anecdotal experiences" hold more weight with you than a sample of several hundred games?
No, but I don't think your sample of several hundred games with a seemingly infinite number of changing variables proves all that much, either.

"Sample size" is a term often thrown around, but to get true accuracy, "several hundred" doesn't even register, leaving aside the variables issue.

Anyway, I'm not saying your sample means nothing.  I'm also not saying it means something.  Maybe I'll keep a watchful eye as I move forward.  But your basic assertion is that tempo has no effect on the game, and that simply hasn't been my experience.
10/11/2011 2:15 PM
dahsdebater
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Keep in mind while you watch your box scores that your starters, who are typically your best scorers, spend less time on the court the faster you go...
10/11/2011 2:17 PM
apollo7
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Posted by dahsdebater on 10/11/2011 2:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by apollo7 on 10/11/2011 1:00:00 PM (view original):
As a team, we shot .516 from the field during the season.  When running uptempo against FCP my average fell to the basement.  Maybe there is something else going on here.  Here are my other losses against the other FCP team in my conference:

uptempo:  http://whatif.cincinatti.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7442139
uptempo:  http://whatif.cincinatti.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7452305
slowdown:  http://whatif.cincinatti.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7466241

The slowdown was still a loss but my FG% went pretty much back to normal.
That's a .05 jump in field goal percentage.  That's like 2 shots.  If you're trying to read engine performance out of 2 shots in 1 game you're going to find evidence for all kinds of things that don't actually exist.
Its ALL ABOUT those 2 to 3 made shots per game.  At the highest level of competition, most games will come down to a 4 to 6 point swing before end of game fouling.

That being said, my (albiet small sample size) experience from last season is as follows:

vs. Drury - uptempo - shot .500
vs. Drury - uptempo - shot .436
vs. Drury - slowdown - shot .556

vs. St. Mary's - uptempo - shot .458
vs. St. Mary's - uptempo - shot ..452
vs. St. Mary's - slowdown - shot .509

I coached high school ball for 20 years.  This is only common sense.  Against someone trying to press you non stop, you slow it down to keep your best players on the court, and work for a good shot.  Unless you are fastbreak team built around running, trying to uptempo them and beat them by getting their players tired is a losing proposition, since their team will specifically be built around stamina (if they are good).  Going uptempo you are playing into their hands. I had to learn that the hard way.

However, just my humble opinion.  Take or leave it I don't care.
10/11/2011 3:42 PM
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