Any thoughts on this player? Topic

kujayhawk
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Taking a look at Frank Detweiler's stats and I'm pretty amazed.

Here is his ratings:

Athleticism 81
6
 
Speed 79
9
 
Rebounding 20
 
  
Defense 68
4
 
Shot Blocking 13
 
  
Low-post 3
 
  
Perimeter 88
15
 
Ball Handling 40
1
 
Passing 45
7
 
Work Ethic 66
9
 
Stamina 89
6
 
Durability 32
 
  
FT Shooting C  


And stats:

Yr. GP GS MIN FG% FG3% FT% OREB REB AST TO STL BLK PF PTS
52 28 28 30.9 .399 .390 .630 1.0 3.9 2.6 2.4 1.4 0.1 2.0 15.2
51 27 27 30.1 .374 .342 .616 1.5 3.9 1.8 2.5 1.1 0.0 1.7 11.6
50 31 31 28.7 .372 .287 .671 0.7 2.9 1.7 1.8 1.1 0.1 2.2 7.6
Averages       .384 .352 .640 1.1 3.5 2.0 2.2 1.2 0.1 2.0 11.3


Detweier's team (McDaniel) plays in a conference with one human team.  McDaniel had four games against human coaches all season.  McDaniel currently has a SOS of 378.

How does a D3 guard with 81 athleticism, 79 speed, and 88 perimeter not even break 40% from three point range against the 7th worst SOS in all of D3?

I'm not sure if this relates to the sample size thread I started last week, or is there something I'm really missing here?

11/14/2011 12:14 PM
pepwaves007
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Wow. Yeah two questions come to mind when looking at this player.

1) How the hell did this player land on a D3 Sim AI team?
2) Why is he performing so far below his talent level?
11/14/2011 12:51 PM
bbunch
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low ballhandling is all I can think of - though the low FG% is still surprising .
11/14/2011 1:56 PM
zbrent716
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Maybe his high distro is hurting him?
11/14/2011 2:21 PM
udm_mike
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I was going to suggest a bad pg, but that's certainly not the case.
11/14/2011 2:23 PM
Rails
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  • A vast majority (3 out of 4) of his attempts are from beyond the 3 point arc and he is still hitting nearly 40%.  Perimeter players are rarely going to lead in FG%, but still can be very productive with what look like average FG%.  I'd certainly take a guy who shot 3/4 of his shots from 3 and hit 40%, especially one with a higher distribution. 
  • He's shooting only .630 from the FT line which is his achillies.
  • He didn't start the year with those ratings as he's gained 57 points as a junior so looking at the body of work for the entire year can be misleading (if he's still gaining 57 as a junior he must've been brutal as a frosh, hence the reason he went unrecruited.)
  • His supporting cast is below average.  The entire roster is sim-recruited and the other 4 starters include a frosh and 4 sophs and their IQs if not ratings are subpar.  Even with a 378 SOS his team has committed more turnovers than its opponents (that's not a compliment to his PG).  That will lead to fewer good opportunities for him and his team to score and is another indication that he's getting little support, and needs to do a lot of creating himself.  Unlike a FT where a kid is competing against himself, a good supporting cast can add/detract from a kid's "production from ratings expection ."  In other words, all things being equal, two kids with the same ratings will and should put up different numbers soley based on who their teammates are.
  • I wouldn't put him in the underperforming category at all.  He's scored 975 points thru 3 seasons and should easily surpass 1300-1400.
11/14/2011 2:40 PM (edited)
isack24
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I'm having a similar problem with Freddie Lyles. 

Playing him at SF, he has at least 20/15 ath/spd advantage over everyone he matches up against, but he has struggled for the better part of this season and last.  Of course, I wish his LP was higher, but I just have a tough time believing any D3 SF can stop this guy consistently.  But it seems that even the mediocre ones can...
11/14/2011 3:31 PM
kujayhawk
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Rails -- thanks for taking an indepth look at this.  I don't disagree that much with your post.  I would quibble with your point about his ratings not being what they were at the start of the season.  That's true, but he was still 75/70/73 and an athletic freak that still was better than Steven Gonzalas.

I don't have a problem with his percentages in theory.  He's a nifty player.  The problem I have, or more accurately what has me a bit confused, is that there are a ton of players that are worse than him that are shooting 44-45% (or better) from three point range.

When a player like William Laursen in the same playing time and shooting frequency can hit 49% of his threes despite 23 athleticism, it really makes me stop and think.

I'm just wondering if this is a matter of sample size.  It's a full season but it still "only" 333 FGA and 259 FG3A.  If it is sample size, it does mean I need to rethink some things ....
11/14/2011 3:54 PM
jtt8355
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don't know if this adds any thoughts to the analysis, but check out this player (who i recruited and is now being coached by a sim):

http://whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=0&pid=1837213

Donald Savage
PG | Senior | 5'11" | 189 lbs. | 3.3 gpa
Pewamo-Westphalia HS Pewamo, MI | Recruited By: jtt8355
PG
654
Athleticism 47
 
  
Speed 88
 
  
Rebounding 1
 
  
Defense 50
 
  
Shot Blocking 3
 
  
Low-post 13
 
  
Perimeter 94
 
  
Ball Handling 74
1
 
Passing 63
3
 
Work Ethic 70
3
 
Stamina 83
1
 
Durability 68
 
  
FT Shooting C+  

Yr. GP GS MIN FG% FG3% FT% OREB REB AST TO STL BLK PF PTS
55 12 12 24.1 .563 .507 .730 0.3 1.6 3.5 2.3 1.7 0.1 2.1 17.4
54 30 30 26.8 .450 .425 .701 0.8 1.8 3.0 2.2 2.0 0.0 2.1 18.6
53 28 1 19.6 .455 .375 .671 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.0 1.5 8.4
52 28 0 15.3 .393 .138 .615 0.5 1.2 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.0 1.3 5.1
51 Redshirt
Averages       .458 .411 .679 0.5 1.4 2.1 1.8 1.3 0.0 1.7 11.7


Yr. GP GS MIN FGM FGA FG3M FG3A FTM FTA OFF REB AST TO STL BLK PF PTS
55 12 12 289 63 112 37 73 46 63 4 19 42 28 20 1 25 209
54 30 30 805 188 418 108 254 75 107 23 55 89 66 60 0 63 559
53 28 1 550 80 176 27 72 47 70 11 34 43 37 27 0 43 234
52 28 0 429 46 117 4 29 48 78 13 33 28 41 20 0 37 144
51 Redshirt
Totals 98 43 2073 377 823 176 428 216 318 51 141 202 172 127 1 168 1146

11/14/2011 4:01 PM
Rails
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Posted by kujayhawk on 11/14/2011 3:55:00 PM (view original):
Rails -- thanks for taking an indepth look at this.  I don't disagree that much with your post.  I would quibble with your point about his ratings not being what they were at the start of the season.  That's true, but he was still 75/70/73 and an athletic freak that still was better than Steven Gonzalas.

I don't have a problem with his percentages in theory.  He's a nifty player.  The problem I have, or more accurately what has me a bit confused, is that there are a ton of players that are worse than him that are shooting 44-45% (or better) from three point range.

When a player like William Laursen in the same playing time and shooting frequency can hit 49% of his threes despite 23 athleticism, it really makes me stop and think.

I'm just wondering if this is a matter of sample size.  It's a full season but it still "only" 333 FGA and 259 FG3A.  If it is sample size, it does mean I need to rethink some things ....
Laursen has teammates with higher iqs.  As a whole they turn the ball over less than Deitweiler's club.  Because things are rarely apples to apples it's hard to make comparisions.  Laursen's PE is higher with a lower ATH, but many would argue that it's more about speed and less about ath at that spot and those ratings were pretty close.  And Deitweiler has a lot lower bh and pa compared to Laursen.

Like I said, comparing players are virtually impossible.  Gonzales had superior teammates, and didn't shoot many 3's even though he had a 51 pe.  Gonzales had a 76 lp and a 51 pe compared to Deitweiler's 88 pe and 3 lp.  Lauresen had an 8 lp.  Gonzales (SF) also had better bh and pa than Deitweiler (sg).  It's apples to oranges imho.  Most interior players are going to have a better FG% than most perimeter players.  If any of the three players would swap teams, they would put up different numbers than what they did due to the little things that impact production.   
11/14/2011 5:17 PM
tianyi7886
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Something about the bh is screwing him up.

11/14/2011 5:24 PM
Rails
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Posted by isack24 on 11/14/2011 3:31:00 PM (view original):
I'm having a similar problem with Freddie Lyles. 

Playing him at SF, he has at least 20/15 ath/spd advantage over everyone he matches up against, but he has struggled for the better part of this season and last.  Of course, I wish his LP was higher, but I just have a tough time believing any D3 SF can stop this guy consistently.  But it seems that even the mediocre ones can...
Very small sample size with Lyles of course, but he is shooting more than half of his attempts this season from 3 compared to only 15% of his attempts from long range prior to this season.

Without looking to close, it's a new group of teammates.  He's coming off the bench this year too so he's playing with other backups...a lot of little things impact production.  1% here,  1% there.
11/14/2011 5:25 PM
Rails
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jtt, that player is very appropriately putting up nice numbers.  Great spd, pe, bh, pa and very nice de.  Assuming other ratings are good too, I do notice an uptick in 3FGA% once a kid in DIII hits 90 pe.   
11/14/2011 5:28 PM
tianyi7886
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as far as I can tell, 3 pt shooting is pretty much all perimeter. 
11/14/2011 5:31 PM
jtt8355
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Posted by tianyi7886 on 11/14/2011 5:31:00 PM (view original):
as far as I can tell, 3 pt shooting is pretty much all perimeter. 
disagree. 3 pt shooting is a combination of per, ath, spd and iq - coaching plays a role, too, so that better coaches know when to take advantage of matchups, def sets, +/- settings. unfortunately, i haven't mastered these skills yet, but i've seen enough sharp shooters to have learned that you can sacrifice per (i.e., have per in the 50-70 range) and still be a decent 3 pt shooter. 
11/14/2011 6:44 PM
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