Another hiring logic oddity Topic

mamxet
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I'm trying to understand what they did.  We know they widened the window.  But that by itself cant explain this sort of result.  Something about how the seasons are weighted or some un-intended change in a coefficient that doesnt work right once you look at 10 seasons rather than 4?
12/22/2011 8:40 AM (edited)
professor17
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Posted by mamxet on 12/22/2011 8:40:00 AM (view original):
I'm trying to understand what they did.  We know they widened the window.  But that by itself cant explain this sort of result.  Something about how the seasons are weighted or some un-intended change in a coefficient that doesnt work right once you look at 10 seasons rather than 4?
From what I've gathered, at least part of it is that the school expectations for success were not changed for the new 10-year period vs. the old 4-year period. So schools are now expecting the same average level of success over the past 10 seasons as they once did for the past 4. That's obviously much harder to maintain.
12/22/2011 9:56 AM
girt25
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That's definitely part of it, but I think there's another component as well.

I say that because there are also plenty of examples of perenially successful D2 programs -- programs basically making the S16 or better every year -- that are now qualified for significantly less than they were before. And they have the same four-year "average" as they do 10-yr "average" (not to mention another season of success/experience added t otheir resume since the last jobs process).
12/22/2011 10:03 AM
reinsel
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I think both professor17 and girt are right and its two effects that made things worse.  My D2 Queens team has a pretty good resume, last year I could go to C+ CUSA schools and was a longshot for B- ones or schools with B prestige.  I decided to say at Queens 2 more years to make the jump straight to a Memphis or Gonzaga type school....now it looks like that plan is impossible, even if I win the NT next year.


At D2:

Season Coach Overall
W-L		 Home
W-L		 Road
W-L		 Neutral
W-L		 Conf
W-L		 Rank RPI Prestige Notes
50 reinsel 10-1 4-0 6-1 0-0 1-0 18 16 -  
49 reinsel 18-13 8-6 8-5 2-2 7-9   34 A NT At-large Bid
NT (2nd Round)
48 reinsel 33-2 11-1 14-0 8-1 16-0 2 2 A+ Conf Champion
CT Champion
NT (Championship Game)
47 reinsel 29-3 11-2 13-0 5-1 15-1 5 9 A+ Conf Champion
CT Champion
NT (Sweet 16)
46 reinsel 23-10 10-3 11-5 2-2 8-8   54 A- PI (Championship Game)
45 reinsel 24-10 10-3 7-6 7-1 12-4 17 13 A CT Champion
NT (Elite 8)

At D3:
44 reinsel 33-2 12-1 13-0 8-1 15-1 2 8 A+ Conf Champion
CT Champion
NT (Championship Game)
43 reinsel 28-5 13-1 10-2 5-2 16-0 5 10 A+ Conf Champion
NT At-large Bid
NT (Final Four)
42 reinsel 26-4 11-2 12-1 3-1 15-1 25 18 A+ Conf Champion
CT Champion
NT (1st Round)
41 reinsel 31-2 13-1 12-0 6-1 16-0 6 10 A+ Conf Champion
CT Champion
NT (Elite 8)


12/22/2011 10:21 AM
maz621
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I'd like to see them sell this to a new user. Tell them they need 15-20 seasons of purchasing while being an expert from the get go and then you can coach for the always vacant big 6 schools. 
12/22/2011 10:25 AM
professor17
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reinsel, I had similar best-laid plans scuttled by the recent changes. I'm at Marquette in Rupp, and from Day 1 there, I planned to be there 5 seasons, then move up. And I recruited accordingly. I made the NT in Seasons 3 and 4, and would have made it in Season 5 (23-4, 37 RPI at end of CT) if not for the change in NT selection criteria. I ended up being the 2nd last team out under the new rules, and went to the PT. That combined with the change in hiring logic has made it impossible for me to move up according to plan. I now have to start essentially from scratch, since I will not have a competitive roster here in Season 6, as I was not expecting to be here.

12/22/2011 10:43 AM
asher413
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Posted by girt25 on 12/22/2011 7:22:00 AM (view original):
Posted by asher413 on 12/22/2011 1:21:00 AM (view original):
I see the frusterations- and the Bama case is baffling (maybe they added a "you ditched us" factor, lol), but I don't see what's wrong that you can't jump from DII to top half DI.  In my mind, there are really four levels in this game- DIII, DII, DIAA and Big 6- and you shouldn't be able to just skip a level.  It sucks since that's the way it's been for years, but I feel (and just my $.019) that if we're complaining that you can't go from DII to a Big 6 job, we have to take a step back and realize what we were getting away with in the past.

... edit:  And C-USA was the #2 conference last season in Rupp, and tied to be the 6th in the big 6 prestige-wise.

Asher ... 1. It's not about c-usa  2. No need to seize on one example -- the body of evidence here is ridiculous. Even seble has admitted it's a problem. 3. The point of this change was never to make things harder, it was simply to have the process consider more than just a small window, but they massively screwed up the implementation.

This one just isn't a two-sided issue -- they made a colossal mistake that completely screwed up jobs and made it incredibly difficult for job movement.
Girt, I no way shape or form am I saying the system is perfect.  I'm just saying the Bama case is valid, but D2 not being able to jump to Big 6 D1 is not a problem.  I feel (and just personal impressions) that the valid cases get lost with the complaining about every case, and cases such as "I can't jump to Memphis from D2" are not the big issues.  I'm not sure (granted, most of the posts I've seen have been around D1) that the job change is 'broken' or an issue when taking D2 or D3 jobs, all of the truly valid complaints I've read have been getting to Big 6 in D1 from low D1 or even Big 6 D1.

The lack of ability to move up within D1 is an issue, or even laterally at this time.  I won't argue that.  I'll just argue that you shouldn't be able to jump from D2 to the Big 10 every single time, no matter how many D2 championships you have.
12/22/2011 10:51 AM
10downing
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asher, I agree with you, but I think comments like yours allows the HD powers, who at least seem to want to wait and see quite a while, and then only tweek a new system that is flawed significantly at heart, to take justification that their change is "good" in some respects, and so deserves not to be IMMEDIATELY scrapped in favor of the old system, until a workable system can be developed and tested properly before killing coaches' painstakingly developed plans, just like professor's above. In other words, it may allow them to keep believing "the emperor has clothes."
12/22/2011 11:05 AM
dacj501
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we may have artificially inflated our conference prestige and whatnot at CUSA, but tianyi's resume should qualify him for Rice or Tulsa - I mean c'mon - its Rice and Tulsa...
12/22/2011 11:43 AM
asher413
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It's not Rice and Tulsa anymore.  It's Northwestern and Baylor.
12/22/2011 1:28 PM
twjared
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Posted by asher413 on 12/22/2011 1:28:00 PM (view original):
It's not Rice and Tulsa anymore.  It's Northwestern and Baylor.
asher, I think that's sort of a non-point, because the coach was qualified for them last season. Those teams haven't changed much, if at all, between now and then.
12/22/2011 2:02 PM
tianyi7886
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Posted by asher413 on 12/22/2011 1:28:00 PM (view original):
It's not Rice and Tulsa anymore.  It's Northwestern and Baylor.
On a second look, I'm qualified for Northwestern and its C- prestige.
12/22/2011 2:24 PM
asher413
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So the argument is because it changed, he should still be qualified?

I am really trying to stay out of this, because many parts of this are broken and I see 10downing's points, but you're telling me that a system is broken because a DII coach can't make it to the number two (or tied number six) conference in DI?  Just take a second and tell me that you really want a system that allows every single good coach to just skip low DI altogether, and then complain about the lack of coaches at low D1.

When I first started, you weren't qualified for DII in one season unless you were a final four coach... so by that logic it's completely broken because in the past you couldn't get to DII after one season.

THERE ARE BIG PROBLEMS.  Yes.  But the DII to C-USA Rupp is not the correct example to be using.  You're arguing the system is broken because he can't make a big 6 conference.  If you tell me that he can't even get to D1 at all, then yes, there's a major problem.  But I've understood he can get to about 150 (C- or lower, not Big 6) jobs in D1, and that's a problem?

The original post was the problem- the lateral movement within D1.  Are there hiring problems in D2?  D3?  Or are we simply looking at D1 to D1 movement that is screwed up.  Maybe I'm a bitter bear, but I feel like the message of what is broken is constantly screwed by the borderline cases.  The fact that anyone at an A or A+ school with perfect rep and a good resume can't get to another A school is just plain wrong.  Let's not cloud it by complaining that you can't jump from DII to a top 2 (or 6) conference in a world.
12/22/2011 2:31 PM
girt25
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asher, you don't really get it.
12/22/2011 11:29 PM
tianyi7886
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I bet you reducing the 14 season window to 10 will greatly increase the jobs I, along with numerous other D2 coaches, qualify for next season. I only have 10 seasons in Rupp so with a 14 season window, I might be getting a value of 0 assigned to the missing seasons, which explains the huge drop in the jobs I qualify for despite seasons 5-10 just as strong as 1-4. 
12/23/2011 12:35 AM
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