Posted by girt25 on 1/20/2012 8:19:00 PM (view original):
Posted by professor17 on 1/20/2012 8:29:00 AM (view original):
I also agree that the demarcation shouldn't be as black and white as BCS vs. non-BCS. That's too artificial/contrived a fix, IMO. I'd rather that EE's be tied strongly to post-season success, which would essentially accomplish the same thing without making different rules for different schools, depending what conference they are in. This would also ensure that conferences like the A-10 and CUSA, which have been very strong in some worlds, don't receive protection from having any EE's simply because they are not BCS conferences, despite having had strong success.
It's already very strongly tied into team success -- very strongly.
There is a correlation now, but if one of the intents of EE's is to help level the playing field between the big schools who can sign the elite players, and the mid-major schools who can't, then that correlation is not nearly strong enough, IMO, and there is still too much random variability. There are simply too many cases of schools that go out early losing multiple EE's and championship game teams losing no one, for it to be an effective, meaningful formula.
I've been watching this pretty closely since the rise of the ACC in Phelan a few seasons back, and until this season, the ACC has really come off easy on EE's, despite routinely putting multiple teams in the E8 and F4. A few seasons ago really caused me to throw up my hands and declare EE's to be just too random. That season, multiple teams that went out in the 2nd round lost 3 guys each; a D2 team lost an EE; and neither team in the championship game lost anyone; I lost my 768 backup PG, while a conference mate who went farther in the post-season kept their 1000+ rated NPOY PG. This was all in the same season.
If we want EE's to help level the field (which is a completely debateable point), I say make post-season success more than a correlation; make it deterministic. If you miss the NT, you are guaranteed to lose no one. If you go out in the 1st or 2nd round, you can't lose more than 1 EE. Make the S16 or E8, you can lose 2 or 3, and are almost certain to lose 1. Make the F4 or farther, and there's no limit to what you can lose, and you are almost certain to lose at least 2. Something along those lines anyway.