Posted by isack24 on 1/29/2012 11:18:00 PM (view original):
"Given that we don't know exactly how it works we have to ask ourselves what is the more probable cause for this event. So, which is more likely: (a) many of those things happening in one day, creating enough enough points to surpass the higher projected team despite the negative impact of that days loss, or (b) the system overvalues losing to teams with a high rpi?"
Honestly, I think you're completely undervaluing how much can change with 10+ teams from your schedule playing other teams. If your non-con schedule goes 2-8 in a given night, that can significantly affect a lot of things. I don't know what seble's games scores are or how they work, but I know that one weird night can change a lot, and I certainly wouldn't jump to conclusions and attribute an odd move on the projection report to overvaluing losing to good teams.
I understand where you're coming from, and I'm not claiming that it works one way or the other. I didn't include this is the original message for brevity, but I checked on the original day of the occurance and there weren't any serious instances of bad or numerous loses relating to my non-conference schedule.
I just think the negative impact of an additional loss would be more than the increase from those factors alone. Plus, I would be less speculative if it had been the team's 2nd or 3rd lose, but it was their 4th.