Does this seem right to anyone, maybe it is.  I'm not saying it shouldn't be, but to go to B- that quickly, seems a bit odd.

I don't know how prestige works anymore.  Based on the way it used to work, it looks abotu right, I guess.  The same way it can go from B or B+ to A+ with a final four/NC game appearance.  D2 and D3 are so fickle, especially when three or four seasons out from the outlier.

Well, as I look at it again, maybe it seems a bit low.  It's not the full grade drop that bothers me, it's the B-.  Seems like you shouldn't be at a B- given that history.  But again, I don't have any idea what tweaks have been made.

Maj, in D2 and D3, they place WAY too much emphasis on the most recent season. It's silly.

This is from a thread I started on Jan 22. I submitted a ticket and was told that everything was working properly. It might help if more coaches submitted tickets as well
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 In the last 7 seasons, my Drury team (Crum)  has a NT record of 18-6 (two RUs, four Sweet 16).  We were rebuilding this season and missed the NT with a 9-19 record.  I expected my A+ prestige to drop but not a full letter to B+.

Comparing my NT record over those 7 seasons  to other B+ schools:

Gannon  0-4
Lynn      2-5
Ft. Hays  1-3
Holy Family 3-2 (only played in TWO NTs)
No. Florida 3-6
St. Michael's  0-5
SE Oklahoma 1-4

Either: 1) the most current season is valued too much, or 2) NT resume isn't valued enough.

There's not a coach, player or fan in America who wouldn't consider an 18-6 NT record more prestigious than 0-5.

I urge you to alter your prestige formula to more accurately reflect real life.

Thanks
 

* if prestige is a strict 4 season window,
* if there is no conference strength factored in at D2/D3, 
* and the consensus of the weight of those seasons is somewhat accurate at around 8x for the most recent season, 4x one season prior, 2x two seasons ago and 1x the 4th season....

then the drops seem somewhat in line.

eg..  being the 100th ranked team the most recent season, preceeded by three straight top 5's, would put your weighted 4-season average somewhere around the mid 50's.

I have found Iguana's 8-4-2-1 methodology to be pretty accurate for predicting prestige at D2/D3. Putting this on a percentage-weight basis helps illustrate just how decisive the more recent seasons are for figuring prestige: 

Most recent season: Counts 53%
Two seasons ago: Counts 27%
Three seasons ago: Counts 13%
Four seasons ago: Counts 7%

I think most coaches agree that the most recent season is weighed much too heavily.  If RL Duke missed the NT this season,  would their prestige drop out of the top 40??

Duke has a baseline prestige and conference prestige to fall back on. Not the same.

Posted by alblack56 on 1/31/2012 2:45:00 PM (view original):
I think most coaches agree that the most recent season is weighed much too heavily.  If RL Duke missed the NT this season,  would their prestige drop out of the top 40??

there isn't a d2 team in the country that carries a prestige anywhere near duke.

Posted by stinenavy on 1/31/2012 3:00:00 PM (view original):
Duke has a baseline prestige and conference prestige to fall back on. Not the same.

I was referring to Duke in real-life.  One bad season wouldn't have much effect on their prestige in the eyes of recruits.  Two bad seasons...probably...Three bad seasons....for sure.  High school students can barely remember beyond that. 

So, if Duke was 18-6 in NT games over 6 seasons, then missed the NT, they'd still be a top-prestige program. When it happened to my Drury team in WIS, 39 teams now have a higher prestige.  And, as I pointed out earlier, I'm now tied with teams that won  zero NT games in that same period.

Posted by Iguana1 on 1/31/2012 2:07:00 PM (view original):
* if prestige is a strict 4 season window,
* if there is no conference strength factored in at D2/D3, 
* and the consensus of the weight of those seasons is somewhat accurate at around 8x for the most recent season, 4x one season prior, 2x two seasons ago and 1x the 4th season....

then the drops seem somewhat in line.

eg..  being the 100th ranked team the most recent season, preceeded by three straight top 5's, would put your weighted 4-season average somewhere around the mid 50's.

Iguana, I think what's at issue here is that the methodology is way too skewed to one year. I agree that if that is indeed the methodology (and it's definitely very close), then maj's result followed it ... but it's a screwed up system.

This is standard drop. You miss both NT and PI, you lose a full letter.

Posted by tianyi7886 on 1/31/2012 10:21:00 PM (view original):
This is standard drop. You miss both NT and PI, you lose a full letter.

If that's corrrect, then the most recent season is stressed WAY too much. To make it an automatic full letter drop, regardless of the previous seasons?  In Naismith, Texas-Dallas has won  4 of the last 5 NTs.  If they miss post-season, they'll drop to B+???????