Recruiting Improvements Topic

professor17
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Not advocating anything in particular here, just throwing out the numbers... I looked at the Top 50 players in Rivals 2011 recruit rankings, roughly split between 4 and 5 star recruits. These are current freshmen. Removing the 5 players who have not played due to ineligibility, injury, redshirt or quitting the team, we're left with the following stats for the remaining 45 players: 

69% are starting (or were starting before quitting their team) or getting starter-like minutes (Top 5 on team)
31% are coming off the bench or getting non-starter like minutes

Playing time for those bench guys ranges anywhere from insignificant (24 minutes on the season) to nearly 20 mpg. Typical looks to be about 12-13 mpg.

2/1/2012 1:38 PM (edited)
girt25
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Posted by jslotman on 2/1/2012 11:29:00 AM (view original):
I just think it should take an extenuating circumstance for a player - particularly a high value recruit - to choose a school where they absolutely will not play over a school will they will play immediately if the prestiges and other recruiting efforts of the two schools are relatively equal. 
I tend to agree with this. (Of course, your initial example didn't meet that criteria.) I think the solution would be making promises worth more. They are not worth enough.
2/1/2012 1:40 PM
girt25
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Posted by dacj501 on 2/1/2012 12:17:00 PM (view original):
real life has nothing to do with HD. Been said time and again. I doubt Barnes' real life "IQ" was in the D range when he got to UNC like it would be in HD...
The IQ issue is enormous. Players in WIS are not equipped to come on and be Carmelo or Durant ... or even Harrison Barnes.
2/1/2012 1:42 PM
professor17
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Posted by girt25 on 2/1/2012 1:43:00 PM (view original):
Posted by dacj501 on 2/1/2012 12:17:00 PM (view original):
real life has nothing to do with HD. Been said time and again. I doubt Barnes' real life "IQ" was in the D range when he got to UNC like it would be in HD...
The IQ issue is enormous. Players in WIS are not equipped to come on and be Carmelo or Durant ... or even Harrison Barnes.
Agreed. In looking at the real-life 2011 Top 50 players, many of these guys are averaging over 30 mpg and are 1st or 2nd on their team in scoring. I doubt HD players with D-like IQ's could effectively do that without undermining your team's success.
2/1/2012 1:45 PM
jslotman
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To the IQ question, I say "so what?"   Teams who are able to sign top 25 players should have to suck it up and play those players, regardless of IQ's. 

2/1/2012 2:12 PM
dacj501
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Posted by jslotman on 2/1/2012 2:12:00 PM (view original):

To the IQ question, I say "so what?"   Teams who are able to sign top 25 players should have to suck it up and play those players, regardless of IQ's. 

I respectfully disagree. Something needs to be done, but I disagree with that statement.
2/1/2012 2:13 PM
l_eustachy
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As many have chimed in, this is not real life.  The IQ of incoming freshmen makes it so few can truly contribute immediately (unless you somehow manage to land a kid who is otherwise talented far above his peers at your school and your conference mates), which is obviously unrealistic.  But we also have a recruiting system that tries to emulate real life but is forced to do so by allocation of dollars, which causes some problems as well such as not being able to simulate a charismatic coach or a coach who is able to "relate" to kids, upsell his program, or other things that allow a coach to attract kids in that could play elsewhere.

So we realize it is unrealistic in one area (recruiting) and yet won't tolerate unrealism in another (incoming IQ).  We recognize that having schools able to sign players for a song and sit them on the bench is a problem, but won't tolerate proposed solutions because it means we'd need to sacrifice team performance for at least 2/3 of a season while that shiny new 5-star came up to tolerable speed.  It's simply a game, and in real life freshmen make mistakes and miscues at critical moments--especially perhaps at critical moments.  That is why seasoned teams can sometimes prevail over greater talent in real life, so why can't we tolerate that in HD?

There are a number of possible resolutions (partial or complete) that could improve the situation.  It will probably never be perfect.  But it is just a game.  If it must be a perfect reflection of real life, well then I think we should avoid holding our breath and look for a new time waster.
2/1/2012 2:22 PM
jslotman
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All I am saying is that if you're going to stash a guy on your bench for an extended period, especially a highly rated one, the probability of that player transferring from your program should be pretty high. 
2/1/2012 2:45 PM
professor17
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Posted by jslotman on 2/1/2012 2:12:00 PM (view original):

To the IQ question, I say "so what?"   Teams who are able to sign top 25 players should have to suck it up and play those players, regardless of IQ's. 

You seem to be trying to have it both ways. On the one hand, you are using a real-life fact to bolster your argument to make starts almost required for signing Top 25 recruits (Real Life Fact #1: 5-star players usually start right away), while on the other hand dismissing a related real-life fact that would serve to undermine your argument (Real Life Fact #2: 5-star players who start right away are usually instant difference-makers who are immediately the 1st or 2nd best player on the team).

It seems reasonable that perhaps the reason that Real Life Fact #1 is true is precisely because Real Life Fact #2 is also true. They certainly go hand-in-hand. If we're going to implement one of those real-life facts into HD, then it seems right that we would need to implement both at the same time. Otherwise, there's a big disconnect between real-life (and not in a good way).
2/1/2012 2:47 PM
professor17
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Just as an interesting aside, Jim Boeheim has vociferously maintained over the years that he has never promised a single recruit anything in the way of freshman playing time (not even Carmelo), saying playing time has to be earned. On this year's Orange squad, you have the #18 SG in the country (Trevor Cooney) currently being red-shirted;  and 2 of the 3 highest ranked 4-star recruits in the country (Rakeem Christmas #27 overall and Michael Carter-Williams #29 overall) getting around 12 mpg (although Christmas is now starting due to Fab Melo being out of the lineup due to academic issues).  
2/1/2012 3:09 PM (edited)
girt25
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Posted by jslotman on 2/1/2012 2:12:00 PM (view original):

To the IQ question, I say "so what?"   Teams who are able to sign top 25 players should have to suck it up and play those players, regardless of IQ's. 

Comrade jslotman, you consistently advocate for "Communist Hoops Dynasty".

You can't make an argument that things should match up with real life, and then summarily ignore a very significant, impactful factor in the equation that is completely different from real life.
2/1/2012 3:14 PM
jslotman
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BTW, Fab Melo truly sucked as a freshman, and he still played big minutes. 
2/1/2012 3:52 PM
professor17
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Posted by jslotman on 2/1/2012 3:52:00 PM (view original):
BTW, Fab Melo truly sucked as a freshman, and he still played big minutes. 
Yeah, if you consider 9.9 mpg to be "big minutes" for a 5-star recruit.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/51343/fab-melo
2/1/2012 3:59 PM
stinenavy
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1) Agree 100% with jslotman that there should be a significant increase in recruiting value of starts and promised minutes. I've offered 30 minutes and a start to a SR transfer, only to see him go to Kansas (who picked him up for carryover money and to not lose EE) and play 0 minutes. This is stupid.

2) What's the opposing argument here? That because freshman can't put up amazing stats that that makes it okay for 5 star players to ride the pine. This makes sense to someone?

3) There's always a fine line between deciding between what happens IRL and what happens in HD. I would think it goes without saying that star freshman IRL expect to play and get big minutes, and in this instance it makes sense for HD to mimic real life.
2/1/2012 4:03 PM
professor17
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stine, I don't think anyone here is disagreeing with the premise that the value of starts/minutes should be increased. I believe pretty much everyone is on board with that. I'm not even opposed to the notion that elite players expect a certain level of playing time, perhaps 10-15 mpg. I think the main point of argument is to what degree. As I stated above, my main concern is if starts/minutes become so powerful that they overwhelm the other recruiting tools, such that schools who offer starts/minutes can sign players on the cheap, even against tough competition. Offering a start shouldn't be a "magic bullet". Schools that don't offer starts/minutes should still be able to effectively compete for players against schools that do (see my prior post about using a multiplier to all other recruiting efforts if a promised start is offered).

If you make it so that it virtually requires a start/minutes promise to sign a 4 or 5-star player, then I think you're going to see a lot of unintended consequences.
2/1/2012 4:31 PM (edited)
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