Allen D3 Projection Report (Day 32) Topic

kujayhawk
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  School Conf Coach Rank RPI SOS Record Home Away Neutral Last 10
1. Thomas N.Atlantic kujayhawk 2 2 4 25-3 6-2 17-1 2-0 8-2
2. Lasell N.Atlantic carlbuzz 3 1 3 24-4 9-0 13-4 2-0 9-1
3. St. Olaf Minn. IAC bluespruce 1 3 13 28-0 11-0 15-0 2-0 10-0
4. Becker N.Atlantic ixolabrat 9 5 2 21-7 7-4 13-2 1-1 7-3
5. Castleton N.Atlantic rdb03161987 17 6 1 19-9 5-3 13-5 1-1 6-4
6. Occidental S. Cal. usc4life 5 4 17 27-1 9-1 16-0 2-0 10-0
7. Bates NESCAC nz00 7 11 12 24-4 11-4 11-0 2-0 9-1
8. Bowdoin NESCAC spo34 10 14 24 25-3 11-2 12-1 2-0 8-2
9. Blackburn St. Louis bredden18 4 10 41 27-1 13-0 12-1 2-0 10-0
10. Suffolk Great NE salag 6 7 21 26-2 12-1 12-1 2-0 10-0
11. Millsaps University g0at 12 12 26 25-3 11-1 12-2 2-0 10-0
12. Mount Ida N.Atlantic mizzou77 24 13 8 20-8 7-3 12-4 1-1 6-4
13. Husson N.Atlantic bigtexhawk 8 6 19-9 6-2 12-6 1-1 6-4
14. Centre University johnmacdan 15 9 15 24-4 12-2 10-2 2-0 9-1
15. New England Coast habsfan1 11 15 60 26-2 13-0 11-2 2-0 10-0
16. Texas Lutheran ASC windixies 21 20 29 24-4 10-3 12-1 2-0 10-0
17. Goucher Capital cameltoejoe 16 17 19 23-5 9-2 12-3 2-0 10-0
18. Marietta Ohio mmd1821 13 19 73 25-3 8-0 15-3 2-0 10-0
19. Emmanuel Great NE stewie29 23 24 40 23-4 10-2 13-1 0-1 9-1
20. Johnson St. N.Atlantic bieberfever 16 5 17-11 5-3 11-7 1-1 4-6
21. Lewis and Clark Northwest mastermiind 20 18 23 24-4 10-2 12-2 2-0 10-0
22. Worcester St. NESCAC lilpo 18 34 79 24-4 10-3 13-0 1-1 9-1
23. Lake Land Wisconsin oldresorter 8 22 53 25-3 12-2 11-1 2-0 10-0
24. Greenville St. Louis daveredden 14 21 35 24-4 11-2 11-2 2-0 9-1
25. Wilmington Ohio albatross1 23 28 23-5 7-3 15-1 1-1 8-2
26. Ohio Northern Ohio barjaz 22 30 158 26-2 13-1 11-1 2-0 10-0
27. Carleton Minn. IAC Rails   25 10 19-9 9-5 8-4 2-0 9-1
28. Elms N.Atlantic tyber90   26 7 16-12 6-4 9-7 1-1 4-6
29. Mary Washington Capital nwphotog 19 32 152 25-2 13-1 12-0 0-1 8-2
30. Washington Upstate wsredden 29 58 23-5 10-2 11-3 2-0 9-1
2/18/2012 9:56 PM
kujayhawk
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  School Record SOS SOS Rank RPI RPI Rank RPI 1-25 RPI 26-50 RPI 51-100 RPI 101-150 RPI 151-200 RPI 200+
1. Thomas 25-3 0.6412 4 0.7048 2 9-3 4-0 5-0 5-0 2-0  
2. Lasell 24-4 0.6446 3 0.7119 1 9-4 6-0 2-0 4-0 3-0  
3. St. Olaf 28-0 0.5989 13 0.699 3 3-0 4-0 9-0 4-0 6-0 2-0
4. Becker 21-7 0.6482 2 0.6735 5 8-7 4-0 2-0 5-0 2-0  
5. Castleton 19-9 0.6521 1 0.6715 6 7-9 5-0 1-0 4-0 2-0  
6. Occidental 27-1 0.5827 17 0.6756 4 6-1 2-0 4-0 6-0 0-0 9-0
7. Bates 24-4 0.5993 12 0.652 11 4-3 4-1 5-0 3-0 5-0 3-0
8. Bowdoin 25-3 0.5677 24 0.6463 14 3-2 5-1 3-0 4-0 6-0 4-0
9. Blackburn 27-1 0.5499 41 0.6569 10 5-1 1-0 2-0 9-0 2-0 8-0
10. Suffolk 26-2 0.5712 21 0.6604 7 1-2 3-0 6-0 6-0 3-0 7-0
11. Millsaps 25-3 0.5649 26 0.6504 12 5-2 0-1 5-0 2-0 3-0 10-0
12. Mount Ida 20-8 0.6181 8 0.6493 13 5-6 3-2 1-0 7-0 3-0 1-0
13. Husson 19-9 0.6319 6 0.6595 8 5-6 2-2 3-1 5-0 4-0  
14. Centre 24-4 0.5927 15 0.6576 9 3-3 2-1 4-0 4-0 3-0 8-0
15. New England 26-2 0.5398 60 0.6434 15 1-2 1-0 7-0 3-0 3-0 11-0
16. Texas Lutheran 24-4 0.5634 29 0.6319 20 1-3 4-1   8-0 2-0 9-0
17. Goucher 23-5 0.5762 19 0.6421 17 2-3 5-2   2-0 6-0 8-0
18. Marietta 25-3 0.534 73 0.6353 19 2-3 1-0 3-0 5-0 4-0 10-0
19. Emmanuel 23-4 0.5521 40 0.6256 24 1-3 2-0 5-0 6-0 1-0 8-0
20. Johnson St. 17-11 0.6327 5 0.6428 16 3-8 2-2 5-0 5-0 2-0 0-1
21. Lewis and Clark 24-4 0.5679 23 0.6411 18 3-3 2-1 2-0 2-0 4-0 11-0
22. Worcester St. 24-4 0.5305 79 0.6051 34 1-3 3-1 3-0 6-0 2-0 9-0
23. Lake Land 25-3 0.5444 53 0.6278 22 0-2 1-0 6-1 3-0 5-0 10-0
24. Greenville 24-4 0.5568 35 0.6318 21 0-3 0-1 4-0 9-0 3-0 8-0
25. Wilmington 23-5 0.5636 28 0.6272 23 1-3 1-2 6-0 4-0 2-0 9-0
26. Ohio Northern 26-2 0.5039 158 0.6096 30 3-2 1-0 2-0 3-0 5-0 12-0
27. Carleton 19-9 0.6118 10 0.6247 25 1-7 3-1 3-1 6-0 2-0 4-0
28. Elms 16-12 0.6252 7 0.6223 26 3-11 1-0 3-1 2-0 2-0 5-0
29. Mary Washington 25-2 0.5053 152 0.6068 32 2-1 3-0 1-0 2-0 6-1 11-0
30. Washington 23-5 0.5417 58 0.6152 29 1-2 3-0 5-1 1-0 6-1 7-1
2/18/2012 9:56 PM
kujayhawk
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Main reason I created this thread was to take a look at why Occidental is not on the top line but I think there are a couple of other interesting things in play here.

So without any other comment, here's a more in depth look at the 30 "locks" in Allen D3 the night before the bids are announced.
2/18/2012 9:57 PM
dacj501
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he just wants to show off the 8 NAC teams (and rub in my face that we only got to 12 wins and aren't on here)
2/19/2012 1:55 AM
salag
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Now that I look at it, I reckon that I'm a bit higher than I should have been (Suffolk), and for what its worth, I finished 8th (2 seed) after winning my CT versus RPI 67. 

My only guess for being that high is the high RPI and my two losses were vs Occidental and Thomas.

In one bracket, Thomas is the #1 seed, Occidental the #2. Can't wait for that Elite 8 matchup.
2/19/2012 9:56 AM
kujayhawk
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Posted by dacj501 on 2/19/2012 1:55:00 AM (view original):
he just wants to show off the 8 NAC teams (and rub in my face that we only got to 12 wins and aren't on here)
Not true.  One of the reasons, yes.   "Just" the only reason, no. 
2/19/2012 11:37 PM
kujayhawk
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Salag - you were indeed one of the things that I thought was a bit unusual.  Things that didn't make a lot of sense to me were:

1. Occidental being behind both Becker and Castleton State.  Castleton State especially.

2. St. Olaf not being #1 overall.

3. Greenville being ahead of Ohio Northern.

4. Suffolk being ahead of Millsaps.
2/19/2012 11:39 PM
girt25
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kujay, I think Occidental being behind those teams is a good example of where the formula needs to be tweaked. I'd definitely share with seble.

What this highlights is that (a) the current system likely differentiate too much between beating, say, the 150 rpi team and the 250 rpi team and (b) you get too much credit for just playing a lot of good teams.

In real life, the committee doesn't really care if you're beating some lesser teams (i.e. 250 instead of 150), as long as you have the high quality wins to show you belong and justify your seed. In this case, Occidental was 6-1 vs. RPI top 25. They clearly showed they belong as an elite team. The two teams in front of them are .500ish vs. the top 25, which also shows they're not quite elite.

In real life, I think we can all agree that this would not even be a debate, and that Occidental would get the better seed, no?
2/20/2012 12:17 AM (edited)
tianyi7886
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I have been saying this for quite some time, simply playing (and losing) to top teams help you in NT seeding. Some kind of win% need to be implemented. 
2/20/2012 12:11 AM
girt25
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Posted by tianyi7886 on 2/20/2012 12:11:00 AM (view original):
I have been saying this for quite some time, simply playing (and losing) to top teams help you in NT seeding. Some kind of win% need to be implemented. 
I will say though, it's better than it was in the old formula that was much more RPI driven. I certainly agree that they need more of an emphasis on what you're saying, but in the sold system it was ridiculously easy to game it and make the NT without beating anyone.
2/20/2012 12:19 AM
usc4life
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I guess the committee knew something we didn't. I'm the coach of Occidental. We lost to the 15 seed. I've suffered tough losses before, but I'm in pure disbelief about this one. Can you guys tell me where I went wrong?

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7929911
2/20/2012 10:30 AM
salag
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Posted by usc4life on 2/20/2012 10:30:00 AM (view original):
I guess the committee knew something we didn't. I'm the coach of Occidental. We lost to the 15 seed. I've suffered tough losses before, but I'm in pure disbelief about this one. Can you guys tell me where I went wrong?

http://www.whatifsports.com/hd/GameResults/BoxScore.aspx?gid=7929911
You scored less points than the other team.

A quick glance, you played an extreme -5 and they sunk 16/20 FT's. I would have probably played -2. They outrebounded you by a whole bunch, which is surpising since you were so packed into the basket.

If I were you, I would have played uptempo because you had a large advantage in STA, ATH, and SPD.
2/20/2012 11:21 AM
usc4life
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The rebounding margin was a bit of a surprise, but what really got me was they scored 32 PIP against a -5.

In hindsight, I probably should have gone uptempo, but I'm still confident that I would win 8/10 times with this gameplan. Apparently the IQ's of their 8 seniors were enough to shut me down offensively and my -5 defense couldn't prevent 32 PIP. That's why they play the game I suppose
2/20/2012 11:41 AM
Allen D3 Projection Report (Day 32) Topic
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