Now that this war is over, here are the facts of the case:


The kid is 390 miles away from me.  I give him 45 CV (1268ea.), 8 HV (751ea.), 0 Scouting trips. He accepted a promised starting pos. and 20 minutes. I spend $64,608. I have a B+ prestige.

For my opponent, the kid is 350 mies away. He spends $65,599 on some unknown mix of scouting trips, home visits (1044ea), and campus visits (445ea). He promises a start and 15 minutes. He has a B- prestige.

Apparently we are now discovering both me and the other coach got the same "youre in the lead" type message
earlier today in the same cycle... 


Maybe he went all HV and the Campus Visit: Home Visit ratio is really less than 2:1?? 

He 
a. is closer
b. spent more money

You
a. 1/3+ of a prestige advantage
b. 5 more minutes of game time


So it was probably a very very close call, you probably got beat out by maybe 1 or 2campus visits

If he did a similar HV/CV split, he would have done something like 9 more CVs and 5 more HVs. I think that should be enough to overcome the prestige and 5 mpg.

The SEC CC showed that he went to 25 mpg and 40 HVs with about the same number of CVs.

The fact that he spent slightly more money than you and actually has a big distance advantage means he had way more effort, no surprise you lost.

more details have emerged on our CC. the other school spent $65,599, coach #2 says it was about the same # of CVs (45 is what jck sent) and #2 also sent 40 HVs. He also upped the minutes to 25 apparently. Don't know exactly what kind of effort #2 used, but he mentioned using HVs, CVs and scouting trips in addition to the minutes and start.

The big difference was crossing the 370 barrier, but I thought the prestige difference would compensate for that...

Posted by kmasonbx on 4/28/2012 10:37:00 PM (view original):
The fact that he spent slightly more money than you and actually has a big distance advantage means he had way more effort, no surprise you lost.

no offense mason, but with the prestige difference it shouldn't be way more effort should it?

Idk... either there IS some diminishing marginal utility to CVs and I should have a better mix of HVs, or the 50-60% prestige advantage I thought I had is actually a lot less.

Clearly I need to redefine my assumptions on recruiting.

Two steps in letter grade (B+ to B-) has never been worth 50-60% as far as I know. I used to believe it was about  23% based on a lostmyth assumption, but I have come to think that at some point it's been lowered to about 16-18% per prestige level.

I'm with jck, sems like an odd loss to me based on prestige.

I don't think you can calculate the advantage anyway because All B+ and all B- aren't created equal.  A low B- and a high B+ and you have more than two levels of prestige bonus....a high B- and a low B+ and you could have just barely more than 1 level of bonus.  So even if you know what the % of bonus is for each level, you'll never know exactly where the prestige falls and can never really give more than an educated guess as to what your advantage or disadvantage might actually be.

Posted by bow2dacowz on 4/28/2012 11:52:00 PM (view original):
I don't think you can calculate the advantage anyway because All B+ and all B- aren't created equal.  A low B- and a high B+ and you have more than two levels of prestige bonus....a high B- and a low B+ and you could have just barely more than 1 level of bonus.  So even if you know what the % of bonus is for each level, you'll never know exactly where the prestige falls and can never really give more than an educated guess as to what your advantage or disadvantage might actually be.

exactly.. this might be a B+ 87 versus a B- 83

definately not a full 2/3s, closer to 1/3     

Damn Jck, sounds like you had a rough go of it this time around.  Wasn't that also you that said you had lost a recruiting battle for a senior transfer to a D2 school?

**Edit**  Just checked and it was.  Sorry to bring up another sore subject (wincing).

Both offered starts and minutes, so that's basically a wash.  Supposed to have offered a similar number of CV's, pretty much a wash.  40 HV's for the B- team to 8 for the B+ team.  B- team is under the magical 360 mile mark, B+ is slightly past.  Doesn't really surprise me at all that B- Kansas State was able to win this battle.

It looks like it basically came down to around 30 extra HV's and a distance advantage versus a 2/3 letter grade prestige difference (which as Bow2dacowz pointed out may actually be even less than it appears).  That's really simplifying it, but it looks like the correct team signed the player.  In fact, I would think that K State's coach would have had the better argument had HE not eventually won the battle.