Is this D3 SF any good? Topic

ethan66
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Posted by isack24 on 4/30/2012 1:38:00 PM (view original):
I disagree with most of the above comments.  I would much prefer a 50/70, 20 reb guard with 75+ per at SF.  The guy you have is a mediocre-at-best defender with no real scoring skill. 

Here are some questions:

1. Do you reallty want that guy taking perimeter shots? 
2. Is his ath/spd/lp good enough to score inside with any real efficiency?
3. Do you want him defending even a decent scoring SF? 
4. Are his 4-5 rebounds per game sufficient to make up the difference if the answers to the above questions are "no"?

I think the answer to every one of those questions is "no."  If you're going with a mediocre scorer, I think you need a much better defender.  That guy is just kind of blah everywhere
How many 50/70 guys do you actually see at D3?

The OP's player looks fine to me.  And yeh, he would take perimeter shots, just not my main perimeter threat.


5/1/2012 10:20 AM
isack24
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1. There are plenty of 50/70 guards with 20 reb and similar other ratings to that guy. 
2. You would have a 50 per guy taking perimeter shots?  He'd be lucky (and yes, it's possible he would get lucky), to hit 30% against decent defenders. 

Like I said, he's fine coming off the bench, but this how you tell if he's good: look at the people responding who are lukewarm (mbalding, tianyi) and determine whether those coaches have had success at D3.  Together, they have about 127 D2/D3 championships.  I guess that would be what would make me think I should aim higher.

5/1/2012 11:05 AM
ethan66
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Posted by isack24 on 5/1/2012 11:05:00 AM (view original):

1. There are plenty of 50/70 guards with 20 reb and similar other ratings to that guy. 
2. You would have a 50 per guy taking perimeter shots?  He'd be lucky (and yes, it's possible he would get lucky), to hit 30% against decent defenders. 

Like I said, he's fine coming off the bench, but this how you tell if he's good: look at the people responding who are lukewarm (mbalding, tianyi) and determine whether those coaches have had success at D3.  Together, they have about 127 D2/D3 championships.  I guess that would be what would make me think I should aim higher.

I hope you didn't think I was "excited" about the guy.  I didn't say that, but maybe you're projecting.   I did say he would not be my primary offensive option.  I also noted that 50/70 SFs are not that common in D3.  They're not unless you're a Tianyi who has reached Godhood at Menlo and is essentially recruiting D1 players :)

I have a 57/66 SF on my Iba D3 team with 44 LP.  He started and averaged 7.5 ppg as a JR, not the primary scorer but a good utility defender. He's the best option at SF - "best" being relative and always the primary consideration when we set starting lineups.

There's a 55/61 SF on my Naismith D3 team, too, with 81 PER.  He's my #4 scorer and averages 10.7 ppg.

Neither one is my primary offensive option.  But the question I asked was how common 50/70 players were in D3, NOT whether they could ever be primary scorers. I'm not sure there are that many of them and the OP's player looks good to me as a recruit (not knowing his potentials, which could change my mind on him).

"Appeal to authority" noted and dismissed.




5/1/2012 11:50 AM (edited)
isack24
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I have to be honest, I'm totally confused by your post.

First, I never said anything about anyone being "excited."  In fact, I never said anything about you feeling anything.  Never even hinted at it.

Second, 55+/60+ is a lot different than 51/50.

Third, I never said anything about the player being a "primary scorer."  I think the guy's a mediocre player, and I wouldn't be happy about having to start him.  I think he's fine as a backup, primary scorer or not.

Last, this guy is a junior.  If he has some potential left, that changes the equation, but I didn't take that to have anything to do with the OP's questtion.  I assumed, as I think was reasonable, that the OP was asking about the guy as is, assuming he didn't have much potential left.  If he does, and he turns out to be an entirely different player, then that obviously changes the analysis.
5/1/2012 11:58 AM
zags27
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Robert Holt, used correctly, is a VERY good D3 player.
75% of the teams in D3 would kill to be able to recruit and have a kid like him with those numbers beginning his Jr season.
If he has any room to grow still, he could probably be the best all-around player on 70% of D3 teams.

Some of the guys posting are great coaches with lots of D3 titles.... but they're recruiting different players than the rest of the world.
KuJ knows this kid is good,
Anyone reading this thread without any titles.... if you get a chance to ever recruit a player who will have those numbers after his sophmore season. take him. Then get yourself a primary scorer or two.... and a good rebounder or two and ride em hard. You will be glad you did.
 This type player is not a star, he's the glue that fills the middle and can do whatever needs done.
I have had much worse players at the 3 and won titles in D3 before.

5/1/2012 12:14 PM (edited)
isack24
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Again, I want to clear up that I believe the OP was aksing strictly about the player now (hence asking whether you would start him), not about what he could be with higher ratings.  That's a totally separate question.

I'm willing to listen.

If someone can show me a player like that who started for a D3 championship team (and I mean actually show me the ratings, not just say "I had a guy like him once, I think he was similar), then I'll reconsider.  But I don't remember ever seeing a guy like this start for a championship team in Wooden D3.

And I just want to be clear on another point: I'm not saying don't recruit a player like this or that he is unplayable.  The point I'm making is that, while the guy is probably fine, there is no reason not to aim higher, and I don't think this is a starter on an elite team.  I don't think it means you need to feel bad if this is the guy you have.
5/1/2012 12:39 PM
ethan66
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Thank you, Zags.  Agree 100%.

One coach's "fine" is another coach's "wouldn't recruit".

Like I said originally (before isack24 started building his straw men) the SF in the OP is a solid player.  He'd be starting on either of my D3 teams because I probably wouldn't have anyone better.  And, like I said, I probably wouldn't use him as my primary scorer.  But there are other critical values to a guy than just LP/PER.

If a coach has better players, go ahead and don't recruit him.  That leaves more of the "solid" types for those of us who aren't elite yet.   We have to get there somehow.




5/1/2012 12:55 PM (edited)
isack24
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"before isack24 started building his straw men"

I really think you need to re-read my post.  Or get WAY less sensitive.  Not sure which.

Seriously, I'm so confused by you right now. 
5/1/2012 1:06 PM
ethan66
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Posted by isack24 on 5/1/2012 1:06:00 PM (view original):
"before isack24 started building his straw men"

I really think you need to re-read my post.  Or get WAY less sensitive.  Not sure which.

Seriously, I'm so confused by you right now. 
There's a serious disconnect between what I originally said and what you thought I said.  You projected and assigned positions to me that I never took.

That's the reason for your confusion, probably.

Maybe I'm not the one who needs to re-read.

5/1/2012 1:10 PM
isack24
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What positions did I assign to you?

I literally never said anything about you other than questioning your decision to have that guy shoot perimeter shots.  Literally nothing.
5/1/2012 1:15 PM
isack24
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I supopse in looking back you could have been offended by my position that mbalding and tianyi are solid authorities who people should look to when determining how to build a great team.  I don't think citing their success should have really angered you, but if it did I'm sorry.

But other than that, you actually quoted me as saying you were "excited," which I clearly never did, and then made some claim that I said you thought the guy was a primary scorer, which I also never did.
5/1/2012 1:21 PM
ethan66
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Posted by isack24 on 5/1/2012 1:15:00 PM (view original):
What positions did I assign to you?

I literally never said anything about you other than questioning your decision to have that guy shoot perimeter shots.  Literally nothing.
As others have said, he could shoot *some*, but would never be a primary scorer.  That's what I said, too.  And it's how I play the SFs on my 2 D3 teams who have similar ratings.  You're taking exception to a very minor comment of mine and trying to make it into more than it is.

Just because a couple of elite multi-championship coaches turned their noses up at him doesn't mean he couldn't work for the majority of us (honestly, your appeal to authority probably annoyed me more than anything else you said).  Most of us would take the guy in a heartbeat and use him to good effect simply because we wouldn't have anyone better available.





 



5/1/2012 1:24 PM
tianyi7886
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I think 57/66 or 50/70 with good per/lp are completely different from 50/50 with mediocre lp/per. I think this guy can play decently, grab more boards than the average d3 sf (who tends to be pg/sg) and score on low distro due to offensive boards and put backs. Against much more athletic and faster opponents, he will play substantially worse.

On the issue of whether this guy is a stud in terms of ath/spd or how many d3 players are there (TJ's question) with 50/50/50 ath/spd/def, just go to any d3 world, look at FR pg/sg/sf ratings, sort via ath. You will find 50-70 D3 freshmen with ath/spd/def all in the 50ish range or higher. 

And in no way am I saying I wouldn't play this guy or have him on my team. He is probably more useful for certain teams (teams that lack dominant big to grab boards) and less useful for other teams (fcp, for example). For kujay's zone team, he's decent but not a game changer. 

5/1/2012 1:30 PM (edited)
ethan66
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Posted by isack24 on 5/1/2012 1:21:00 PM (view original):
I supopse in looking back you could have been offended by my position that mbalding and tianyi are solid authorities who people should look to when determining how to build a great team.  I don't think citing their success should have really angered you, but if it did I'm sorry.

But other than that, you actually quoted me as saying you were "excited," which I clearly never did, and then made some claim that I said you thought the guy was a primary scorer, which I also never did.
I'm in a conference with Tianyi (Great NW on Naismith).  He's actually the one who helped guide me to that job and has helped me more times than I can count.  I know full well what a good coach he is.

But at the same time, I see first hand how much better his teams are (I think I'm 0-fer against him **EDIT** Just checked, it's 0-7, sigh) , to the point that I just posted an observation in conference chat this morning that he'd won all of his games this season (except for one) by large double digit margins.  We play tonight for the conference championship and it's a small moral victory for me that he's only a 12 point favorite.  I'm not sanguine about the outcome at all.

Tianyi operates on a new level from me.  I aspire to be as good as him some day, but at the same time you cannot compare his perspective on players to mine.  He's an A+ multi-championship guy who gets about anyone he wants.  I'm a B coach who tends to wait until the last minute of recruiting and pick over the remnants because I can't engage in battles.  I take guys like the OP player because better players won't talk to me yet, or are snatched up by better programs.

We have 2 different perspectives on players, and while Tianyi may not have been impressed I'd still recruit the guy and play him.  Whether he started or not would depend on what else I had on my bench.




5/1/2012 1:40 PM (edited)
tianyi7886
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And after looking at kujay's team, I don't think Holt should be starting while these two are sitting on the bench playing marginal minutes:

http://whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Ratings.aspx?tid=7834&pid=2061434
http://whatifsports.com/hd/PlayerProfile/Stats.aspx?tid=7834&pid=2061433

5/1/2012 1:34 PM
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