Here are two teams:

Team A  
18-10  
RPI  55
SOS 65
vs top 50  (1-7)
vs 51-100  (0-3)

Team B

24-4
RPI 57
SOS 243
vs top 50 (3-3)
vs 51-100 (1-0)

Now, I think team B  is more tournament worthy but is currently 59th in the projection report.  Unless we beat the #10 team in the country in the CT semifinals it is unlikely we will make the NT.

Team A was the 2nd the last team in the NT.

The only things I can think of  to explain why team A is equal to or better than Team B are:

Team A is be rewarded for playing, and losing to, more good teams
Team A has no bad losses (worst RPI of team that defeated us was 90)
Team A went 13-0 vs teams with an RPI in the 100's
Team B has one bad loss (RPI 156)
Team B only played 4 games against teams with an  RPI in the 100's  (3-1 record)
Team B played 15 REALLY bad teams (RPI 200+) 



Here are my conclusions based on the above:

Scheduling awful teams is not beneficial to making the NT.
Bad losses have an impact.
Record vs top 50 and top 100 is kinda over rated.
SOS indirectly matters ( I think games over RPI of 200 just don't count, unless you lose).
Winning games against teams with an RPI in the 100's matters

Having looked through the knight projection reports. . the only team that the 18 - 10 could be isn't even in the same division as your team - although they are rpi 58 and sos 65.  Other than that, I can't really find the other team you are talking about to really compare results ...

Or are you possibly comparing cross world your Rutgers team to your NYU team?

Yeah, they are my two teams....Rutgers DI and NYU DIII

Posted by Trentonjoe on 7/4/2012 5:51:00 AM (view original):
Yeah, they are my two teams....Rutgers DI and NYU DIII

You are comparing apples to oranges. To determine how heavily the proj report is weighing some variables, you have to compare teams within in the same world and the same division. It's not how well you did in a season, it's how well you did in a season compared to all the other teams in your division.