Posted by dahsdebater on 7/12/2012 9:39:00 PM (view original):
The simulation is no good because A) you left Bosh on the roster and B) there is no way that a backup post (in this case Bosh), Westbrook, and James Harden are all going to get more minutes than Durant. Just not happening. If Durant doesn't start in the Olympics, as he likely wouldn't if I were the coach, he'll probably see the most minutes amongst the bench players.
My bad - and now Blake Griffin is gone too...
Easy enough fix to remove Bosh and add Iguodala. For Magic, instead of using his seasons from when he was a year and a half younger and still in the middle of the prime of his career, I resorted to the stats from his brief 95-96 comeback season. This probably overly diminishes how good Magic still was, but I think its better than the unfairly inflated Magic from before. For Davis, I can't just add him from the database...so I started looking at comparisons. I know there is crazy talk of the next Tim Duncan, but that's just absurd, and even if it weren't and Davis does become that caliber of player someday, Duncan was a 4 yr collegian and his NBA rookie season he averaged over 21 ppg. Anyone who can tell me with a straight face that NBA rookie Davis will score 22 needs help...so I can't just use Duncan's rookie stats for the sim even if I bought the comparison. Ultimately decided to use Marcus Camby from 03 in Denver. This was one of Camby's best season, and if Davis' rookie year comes even close to this he's going to be a very good player indeed...I think its a fair enough comparison (not having seen Davis play a second vs NBA talent...) and allows us to move on with the sim.
I also went through the minutes thing and tried to make that more sensible (before I had just left it alone...) and I tried to predict what the lineups would actually be (Jordan was only Dream teamer to start all the Olympic games) - if anyone has any idea where stats regarding minutes played are let me know, coz I couldn't find it. Doesn't look like Stockton played much...Bird played in every game, which is more than I'd have thought... looks like Ewing and Duncan split the starts at center while Barkley and Malone did the same at PF. Since 2012 is smaller and quicker I went with Robinson over Ewing for this matchup, and basically after mentally debating which PF at that point in their careers could better defend the wing decided to flip a coin and go with Barkley at the 4. MJ started every game at the 2, as I mentioned. Magic started most of the games at PG, so he gets the nod. Bird started 3 times, and given the magnitude of this game I am certain he would have demanded a spot in the starting five, so he gets one.
For 2k12, started Deron Williams to compensate for some of Earvin's height advantage. Decided to go with Melo over Love at the other wing spot (the 4 in this case, giving MVP LBJ his traditional SF spot), one because its Barkley instead of Malone, and while Chuck will chew Melo up down low, he'll make life tough for Sir Charles on the other end, and two, because I'm a lifelong SU fan...Kobe and Chandler were simple...
So, I ran it again 10 times, the first 5 2012 gets home court, the second five the Dream team plays host.
#1. Dream Team 129 - 2k12 125
Jordan goes off for 29, Magic has 10 assists and the road team pulls out a squeaker
#2. 2k12 119 - Dream Team 115
Kobe Bryant goes all Kobe Bryant (26 pts on 10-15 fg) on the Dream Team and pulls the NKOTB past the older-timers
#3. Dream Team 89 - 2k2 81
Both teams either play some defense or forget how to shoot. MJ leads all scorers with 20 while only 2 2k12ers (Melo 15, Kobe 10) break double figures.Teams combine to shoot 4/35 from 3 (and oddly 0 of those are from Russell Westbrook.) Despite all the clankers the Round mound of rebound only corrals 2 boards.
#4. 2k12 102 - Dream Team 100
In a very balanced effort King James wins POtG honors despite not exceeding his teammates in any statistical category.Clyde the Glide tops the Dream Teamers in defeat with 16.
#5. Dream Team 111 - 2k12 104
MJ goes off for21, Kobe matches him bucket for bucket (MJ 9/19 FG, Kobe 9/20) evoking memories of the 1988 Eastern Conference semis between Boston and Atlanta when Larry Legend and Dominique traded buckets en route to a Celtics win in game 7 (favorite NBA game of my life) but the Admiral takes home the honors. Robinson logs a double-double, 16 and 14 (Patrick Ewing also doubles up with 13 and 10 in only 18 minutes.)
SWITCH SIDES!
#6. 2k12 102 - Dream Team 93
Clearly switching the color of their jerseys did not sit well with the Dream Team as the get rolled in the first post swap match-up. Carmelo Anthony is the player of the game with 22 points and an uncharacteristic 1 assist. Barkley posts 20 and 11 in the loss, while His Airness finds mostly air, going 5-18 from the field en route to a paltry 10 points.
#7. Dream Team 140 - 2k12 98
Um, you guys, I think Michael heard what I said about him up there...and he looks ******. Jordan, proving that electrons have memory, scores 26, leading nearly every-damn-body on the Dream Team to double digit scoring. Only 3 old-timers score single figures - you guessed it, Magic and Bird (and Laettner, but eff Laettner) - what? Yup, the consummate NBA duo, the OG east coast - west coast combatants both apparently took the night off, what with the rest of the guys scoring 125 without them...
#8. Dream Team 122 - 2k12 112
Just to mess with everyone's head a little bit, Chuck Daly decides to have Chris Mullin play 30 minutes. The old, slow, white guy responds with 27 points. Kevin Durant efficiently (.750) leads the youngsters in defeat with 18 points. (Ok, so MJ fouled out in 20 minutes, giving Daly the excuse he needed - but you know he's been looking for an opportunity like this...he's crafty.)
#9. Dream Team 112 - 2k12 97
Durant is stellar again, but its not enough to overcome Michael Jeffrey Jordan. MJ goes for 20, with 8 assists, just for fun.
#10. 2k12 124 - Dream Team 103
The kids finally get some revenge for that beat down in #7. LBJ is player of the game.
Summary: Dream wins 6 of 10 times in this statistically insignificant simulation exercise. Most of the games were close. That Dream Team blowout, however, does seem like it could happen more often than the other way around. Not often, but I think if one team was to blow out the other it would be Dream Team on the dishing end.
This was fun, and only a little pain in the ***...
7/13/2012 4:16 AM (edited)