Posted by tianyi7886 on 7/23/2012 9:29:00 PM (view original):

Posted by car_crazy_v2 on 7/23/2012 8:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by lakevin on 7/23/2012 5:33:00 PM (view original):

I think a midmajor who gets to be better than a Sweet 16 on something other than pure gameplay luck almost always has a superior class for a "reason." 

Some of those reasons might be (i) a really lucky class where a couple of guys mature even better than would have been expected, (ii) a recruiting class where every A/A+ around it has a 0/1/AI recruiting class so the mid-major picks up guys they otherwise wouldn't have, (iii) getting really lucky with a foreign player where you have a geographic advantage (I got a stud C from Montreal when I was at Dartmouth) and act on imperfect information, or (iv) some luck on redshirting/staying for SR-5.  I'm sure there are more.

And, you know what?  That's how it should be.  It's how it is in the NCAA. 

Once that happens, coaches tend to move up.  Again, that's how it should be.

I don't think the prestige changes will matter all that much -- a team still needs to get to the C+/B level and then catch a break or two.  

Suggest you lay off the Sky Is Falling stories for a bit. 

It's not how it is in RL. Because in WIS, there is too much importance on the success of coaches within your conference. If I want to go to Random School A who is a low major, but has no decent human coaches in the conference, I won't be able to build them into a contender. Even if I'm the best coach in HD, blessed with great luck, and stay there for 50 seasons. Baseline and conference prestige will always drag me down and mid major don't have the access to the same recruits that they used to. 

I think that IQ's need to be more based on playing time (where only a 4 year starter should have an A+ by the end of their career) and there needs to be softer caps on potential. 

But real life also doesn't have empty programs like this right? We are seeing competitive mid majors in full conf so idk if I'll go as far to say the system is broken.

True, but there's also conferences in RL that are full of ****** coaches—one might say they are the real life equivalent's to the dreaded Sim AI.  Look at Davidson in the Southern Conf. or Murray State in the Ohio Valley. 

Davidson is far from a premier school. They had a lucky recruiting period with Stephon Curry and that was it. Murray State? I thought your argument was no midmajors are winning NTs. We have plenty of midmajors go to the NT and get knocked out early in WIS. 

My point there is that teams like Murray State have completely awful conferences around them, but they manage to field very competitive teams. And that is just one extreme scenario that would never ever happen in HD. 

BYU ended up making the Elite 8 in Tark. 1st time in 7 seasons that a non-Big 6 did it in that world, when the same team did it.

Posted by car_crazy_v2 on 7/23/2012 11:27:00 PM (view original):
My point there is that teams like Murray State have completely awful conferences around them, but they manage to field very competitive teams. And that is just one extreme scenario that would never ever happen in HD. 

That's completely false. The following D1 teams from Phelan were all pretty competitive, making it to 2nd round and S16s from very weak conf, until their human coach left:


http://whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/History.aspx?tid=14039

http://whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/History.aspx?tid=13904

http://whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/History.aspx?tid=13759

http://whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/History.aspx?tid=13998
http://whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/History.aspx?tid=13825
http://whatifsports.com/hd/TeamProfile/History.aspx?tid=13924

Well I can't really assess how tough their conferences were at the time, but I would guess they weren't as bad as the Ohio Valley was this season and especially how bad it's been over the past decade or so. 

Also look at what Long Beach St. did out of the Big West. They finished the season with an RPI of 36. Only two other teams had an RPI under 200 (123 and 162) while the rest were between 220 and 338.

I'm thinking about giving a try again at a mid major - wonder what the optimum nonconference schedule is now in a conference with few humans?  I've been BCS for a while, with the new seeding whats the view?

I suspect one cant just aim for 8-10 wins on the road against SIMs, because the in-conference SOS will be too weak.  What do people think is the target schedule?

Posted by car_crazy_v2 on 7/23/2012 11:27:00 PM (view original):
My point there is that teams like Murray State have completely awful conferences around them, but they manage to field very competitive teams. And that is just one extreme scenario that would never ever happen in HD. 

You're off base here. Murray State type seasons can and do happen in HD. It's not that uncommon. In any given world, there's probably (on average) one or more of these every season -- a solid non-BCS team with a gaudy record that goes out within the couple rounds of the NT.

I'm confused as to why you don't think this scenario happens in HD.

Just looking at Allen (which is a vast wasteland for non-BCS team) this season you had:

Boise: 25-4, 27 rpi
Oral Roberts: 26-4, 32 rpi (conference with nine sims)
Stephen F Austin, 24-6, 37 rpi (conference with 10 sims)
IPFW, 23-7, 36 rpi (conference with nine sims ... they've had 23-28 wins four seasons in a row)

Posted by girt25 on 7/24/2012 9:08:00 AM (view original):

Posted by car_crazy_v2 on 7/23/2012 11:27:00 PM (view original):
My point there is that teams like Murray State have completely awful conferences around them, but they manage to field very competitive teams. And that is just one extreme scenario that would never ever happen in HD. 

You're off base here. Murray State type seasons can and do happen in HD. It's not that uncommon. In any given world, there's probably (on average) one or more of these every season -- a solid non-BCS team with a gaudy record that goes out within the couple rounds of the NT.

I'm confused as to why you don't think this scenario happens in HD.

I suppose I could have analyzed it more deeply, but to me it seems that in HD, for a team to have that kind of success, they would need at least a few surrounding teams to make postseason appearances in the preceding seasons so that they can garner the money to pursue the talent that can get them to be a team that is ranked seventh at one point. 

I also think that they were more talented than their postseason performance indicates, but that's subjective. 

In HD, I haven't seen a team ranked in the top ten when their conference is so mediocre. But I have a narrow scope on the HD world due to my only having a team in one world. 

Posted by girt25 on 7/24/2012 9:12:00 AM (view original):
Just looking at Allen (which is a vast wasteland for non-BCS team) this season you had:

Boise: 25-4, 27 rpi
Oral Roberts: 26-4, 32 rpi (conference with nine sims)
Stephen F Austin, 24-6, 37 rpi (conference with 10 sims)
IPFW, 23-7, 36 rpi (conference with nine sims ... they've had 23-28 wins four seasons in a row)

Well it seems that IPFW and Oral Roberts have been feeding off of each other's success, as well as a decent conference despite all of the sims (no teams about 275 in RPI, Stetson's also a PIT team). 

Boise has a great conference which is nearly full so that doesn't fit the type of conference we're talking about. 

And Stephen F Austin is garbage that just has an inflated RPI due to their advantageous schedule. They had no chance to win a NT game. 

The teams I mentioned in Phelan were all from 1 and 2 NT bid conf. I know they were extremely weak conf because I had Alcorn State and followed my midmajor and low end bcs competition closely. 

there were typically 1 or 2 other humans in the Horizon with me at Marquette...

And do you really want Murray State to be your shining RL example of non-bcs teams doing well? This is the team that missed both the NT/NIT in 06-09, and only made the NIT with a 14-4 in conf record (and as you said, in a terrible conf) in 2010-11 season. Sure, they made it to the 2nd round last year and the 09-10 season, but so what? They are inconsistent at best. 

Bow2dacowz's Troy made the S16 twice (although I'm not sure who they beat). Marquette made it to the S16 by upsetting the #1 seeded St. Johns while my Alcorn State team (from a 1 bid conf) made it to the 2nd round by beating Tennessee from the SEC. And both of these teams made the NT every season. Both Troy and Alcorn State made the NT more consistently than Murray State and had similar, if not better success. 

Posted by tianyi7886 on 7/24/2012 10:10:00 AM (view original):
And do you really want Murray State to be your shining RL example of non-bcs teams doing well? This is the team that missed both the NT/NIT in 06-09, and only made the NIT with a 14-4 in conf record (and as you said, in a terrible conf) in 2010-11 season. Sure, they made it to the 2nd round last year and the 09-10 season, but so what? They are inconsistent at best. 

Bow2dacowz's Troy made the S16 twice (although I'm not sure who they beat). Marquette made it to the S16 by upsetting the #1 seeded St. Johns while my Alcorn State team (from a 1 bid conf) made it to the 2nd round by beating Tennessee from the SEC. And both of these teams made the NT every season. Both Troy and Alcorn State made the NT more consistently than Murray State and had similar, if not better success. 

Yeah, obviously not, but they and Long Beach St. are simply the two most recent examples. 

Too lazy to research, but those are just the two examples I have from memory. But obviously I could reference VCU and Butler's run, which will NEVER EVER happen in HD's current state. And I would put cash down on that bet.