Posted by rednu on 8/5/2012 3:10:00 PM (view original):
But isn't that more a perceptual/psychological advantage than a real game mechanics advantage? If I'm first on the recruit, I get the bragging rights of 'woohoo! I'm first!' but nothing tangible from the game itself until the first 24 hours pass and I'm still the only team being considered, right? It's not originating from the game, but from fellow coaches who opt not to play chicken with me to see who wants Player X more.
Also, isn't the "advantage" of pouncing on a kid first cycle offset by advantages received by the slower-acting coaches? After all, if I do nothing the first cycle or two, I now get to see how things have shaped up. I save money by not even making initial contact with recruits that were jumped on early by teams I can't realistically win battles against. I can eyeball states that other nearby schools may not have FSS'd and can target them. If Team A is on a recruit I want and I don't feel there to be a suitable comparable player to go after, I'm able to analyze Team A's consideration list, see how many states may have been FSS'd based on where the players considering him early are, how many other battles that coach might be in and make a more informed decision about trying for that player? The fast-acting coach gets a psychological advantage only if I choose to give it to him, whereas by acting fast, he's provided me with a very tangible benefit of information from which I can make more informed and strategic decisions.
I guess what I'm failing to see is how things really change if HV's and CV's are abolished for first cycle. In essence, you're just pushing back the race to see who can get on a kid from the first cycle to the second cycle. The same psychological advantage of getting your name listed first on the recruit's consideration list will continue to exist because it is the people playing the game, not the game itself, that's creating that edge.
I expected this suggestion to have some detractors, but I'm not sure that I agree with the characterization of that strategy as "playing chicken". However, for the sake of argument, assume there is no actual advantage gained by the coach jumping early. My first thought is that this recruiting tactic lacks reality as there is no way that HV or CV would be scheduled in the first week/"cycle" in which a recruit could be contacted.
More importantly, at high D1, it may be that money could be drained from the overall recruiting "economy", if you will, by coaches choosing to scout players whom they would otherwise avoid when seeing other top-tier teams on the considering list. That is, the recruiting landscape might actually skew back towards top-tier teams fighting for top tier talent, provided they are provided no other option in the first cycle, but to send scouting trips, coach calls, etc., but cannot lock down a target immediately. My supposition is that there is a trickle down effect in the "economy" that leaves Big 6 schools much too much money to use to poach middle tier talent, etc., etc... Some of Seble's comments during the last update have informed this opinion.
Third, this means that many coaches may be using FSS to the exclusion of scouting trips (except as needed to pulldown). I think that, too, alters the economy from the intended operation.
This change may be insufficient to have much effect, but, you know "a butterfly flaps its wings..."