Two more FCP questions Topic

Lol, and I believe you.
8/9/2012 10:44 AM
I'm home with my 3 month old son.  So, I had a bit of time on my hands.  This is by way of partial mea culpa to dahsdebater and partial correction/information about D3 Knight.  So here is the composition of DII schools with a C+ or better prestige in Knight and DIII schools with a B- or better:

                                            DII               DIII
Press                                 65                18
Zone                                   14                21
M2M                                    53                39
Zone/Press                         4                   1
Other                                    2                   0

Sweet 16                            DII               DIII
Press                                  10                 3
Zone                                      2                 5
M2M                                       4                 7
Zone/Press                          0                 1                 {Blue text added in edit}


I would never have guessed that DIII Knight was so full of Zone teams and light on Press.  Dahs mentioned this, but I think absence of quality press teams may somewhat skew the results at that level.  All the same, I would be surprised to learn that most world's DIII composition was like this.  My expectation remains that the ratios would be like the DII shown above.
8/9/2012 1:56 PM (edited)
Posted by llamanunts on 8/9/2012 10:23:00 AM (view original):
You know what would be an interesting study, which nobody (especially myself) is going to take the time to do manually?

1. Take the top 25 or so, D2 and D3 (I don't believe this discussion applies *at all* to D1, but sure, get that info if you like)
2. Get the margin of victory/defeat in each game, and compare it to the spread for that game to generate a +/- value - favored by 2, win by 3 = +1.
3. Compile the +/- value for each defensive set

That will give you a very rough, but probably very informative, look at how the defenses stack up.  Do FCP and M2M teams both end up with the same ballpark number?  Nothing to see here, move along.  Is there a substantial difference?  Something to see here, have a seat.

Anybody here got the time and programming chops?  If yatzr can scrape all that info for his recruiting tool, you can get this stuff.  You can put this discussion to bed...
i think it would be a lot simpler, and in the same ballpark of effectiveness, to grab the # of teams running press, and the number of teams who made the NT running press. if the ratios are about the same, it seems like everything is working as expected.

you'd want to compare from several worlds... but they complete often enough to get the data in not too long. you could probably just compare existing IQ and make an assumption about last season's set, with little margin of error, and get 10 worlds of data straight away.
8/9/2012 1:37 PM
I see what you're saying, but I would prefer to keep it to a group of coaches who we're pretty sure know what they're doing.  I don't see any benefit to having crappy newbie coaches and SIM teams in the sample.

Also, I don't think that approach would isolate nearly as well if a certain set is overperforming.  There's quite a bit more that goes into making the NT than there is to winning a game, no?

8/11/2012 11:22 PM (edited)
Posted by llamanunts on 8/9/2012 10:23:00 AM (view original):
You know what would be an interesting study, which nobody (especially myself) is going to take the time to do manually?

1. Take the top 25 or so, D2 and D3 (I don't believe this discussion applies *at all* to D1, but sure, get that info if you like)
2. Get the margin of victory/defeat in each game, and compare it to the spread for that game to generate a +/- value - favored by 2, win by 3 = +1.
3. Compile the +/- value for each defensive set

That will give you a very rough, but probably very informative, look at how the defenses stack up.  Do FCP and M2M teams both end up with the same ballpark number?  Nothing to see here, move along.  Is there a substantial difference?  Something to see here, have a seat.

Anybody here got the time and programming chops?  If yatzr can scrape all that info for his recruiting tool, you can get this stuff.  You can put this discussion to bed...
One problem is that the spreads aren't very accurate, especially at the start of the season.  For the first couple of games, it's not uncommon to see 70+ spreads for a large number of teams.  I guess it would all be relative though, since you're using a decent number of teams.

One other problem to consider is the tempo used by each team.  Obviously a team running slowdown would more than likely have a smaller margin of victory than a team speeding up the pace.  Just something else to account for, I think.
8/9/2012 1:55 PM
Sure, but I think the sample of 1400 or so games you'd get by sampling even just two worlds' top 25 teams' schedules lets a lot of that stuff wash out.
8/9/2012 2:01 PM
Posted by reddyred on 8/9/2012 7:45:00 AM (view original):
no need to apologize to me rogelio, thats why I spoke on the game. I just think it's unfortunate that people have a desire to make others feel foolish about what they post in the forums when it really isn't warranted. I would like to believe that the coaches who come here are just thirsty for knowledge and are working collectively to either prove or dispel different theories. It's ok to disagree, but is it necessary to be a dick in the process? 

and billyg, why should I have lost this game? I would just like to hear your reasoning. 
im not sure if the top part is addressed to me, but i definitely felt the other poster had some attitude towards me, and was a little i dont know, insulting maybe? in his post. i didn't feel i had anything in my earlier posts to warrant it, but you never know, its easy to say something that is taken the wrong way. maybe i said something he took differently than intended, or maybe he didnt mean anything negative by his post, and i was just reading into it. it happens, in any form of text messages, at times (unfortunately). regardless, sorry if i offended someone.

anyway, to answer your question, you should have lost for a number of reasons. i TOTALLY disagree with the other poster than i should have run slowdown, thats obvious i think. i had the better team, and no depth problems. i know when you look at the overall ratings like he did, it may seem our teams are evenly matched (which, btw, is a horrible way to look at teams. that was part of what irked me. if you are going to write a post like that towards me, at least have a half way decent analysis, or raise legitimate points against what i said. sigh). im not sure how closely you looked at my team - but if you didnt, you might want to. i think it becomes obvious my team is better. ill explain why... but like i always say, team planning is everything. its the #1 factor in success, above talent. and i just feel my team is better built than yours, in addition to having a slight talent edge. combine that with being better set up - and its easy to see why i expected to win (no offense, i dont think your team is poorly setup, its just a generally safe assumption that my team is better setup than my opponents - and when i look at the way your team is setup, i remain confident in that assumption).

anyway, if you want to break it down simply, you can look at 4 categories. first, defense. we both have alright defensive ratings, nothing great. but you run zone (which IS disadvantaged in top 25 to top 50 d2 play, to both press AND man, equally so IMO). to compensate for not great def ratings, you should have higher ath and good sb in your bigs. you dont have bad ratings, but not enough to really bring up your defense. i run press, with similarly non impressive def ratings. but my guard speed is great, which does have a major impact. between that, and you running the inferior defense, i definitely get the edge.

second, lets look at rebounding. my bigs have yours by a notch, no doubt about it, and that is what brings home the bacon. despite you having 5 extra team overall rebounding (which, again, is a terrible way to look at things), i have the edge here.

next, lets look at - not sure the right thing to call it - its a combination of running the point ability and passing. so like, how well can your guards control the ball, how well can your bigs pass, etc... this is primarily a function of bh/pass/spd for guards, and pass for bigs. your pg is solid, but in general, neither of us have great passing or ball handling. however, my guards are definitely better in their ability to control the ball, although not great - and that is what makes the high impact. your higher ratings at the 3-5 are less valuable, so despite you having 8 extra team passing, 2 extra team bh, and equal team speed, i give myself a *slight* edge. note that against the press, this category is way more important, so you actually might have been significantly behind due to the lack of a strength in that area.

finally, lets look at offense. here is where i have you beat, badly. you have no offensive studs. flannery and reed are both dramatically better than any guard you have, and cook is much better than any big you have (from an offensive standpoint). plus, you can hardly shoot the 3, which makes it really easy to throw a - at you with significant benefits. so, i really have a major advantage on the offensive side of the ball, thats probably more than a 5 point per game advantage *right there alone*. 

so, thats just the fundamental strengths and weaknesses of the team. with slight to moderate edges in defense, rebounding, and ball control, and a huge edge in offense, i had a pretty solid advantage. but when you factor in the matchups, i think i was a big favorite. for example, my team thrives on 3 point shooting. you play zone. you did run a 3-2, but at -2, which really was not great. my team just matched up well against yours, and you really had nothing to exploit going the other way. i would expect to win that game at least 80-90% of the time. i know at a glance, things might look close, but they really aren't. dont get me wrong, you don't have a bad team - when i first opened your team up, i went, yikes! i didnt mean to schedule a team that good (i wanted to win all my games for maximum rpi, which i did not do, but i still have the #1 rpi right now). but first glances are deceiving, and team planning trumps raw talent, and when you really look at your team as a package, they could use a lot of beefing up synergy wise. where as my team meshes very well (which is by far the thing i do best). 

anyway, hopefully that gives you some ideas for ways to improve your team in the future. 

to the other poster's point, he says i got 10 turnovers with no downside. with your team's bh/pass/spd, forcing 16 turnovers is really nothing, not even worthy of raising an eyebrow. zone forces few turnovers. so on hat front, nothing to see, indeed!

and its worth nothing - you held my team to really poor shooting, like 38%, vs your teams 44%. with my aforementioned massive advantage on the offensive side of things, that is a much bigger travesty than anything else that happened, by a factor of 10. with the small sample size, its really a very minimal travesty, but so is everything else. i definitely had lower fatigue that you did, although when you look at things in a handful of snapshots with very poor granularity (fresh, fairly fresh, etc), you might not notice it. its obvious to a coach like me though, and i suspect it would be to a great deal of other coaches too. that absolutely contributed to you winning the fg% battle by a decent margin. also, note that is one of the weaknesses of the press - while forcing more turnovers, the resulting shots that do occur go in at a higher %. so there is definitely a downside.

on a final note, if you have one team with a much better offense, wouldnt you expect that to draw more fouls? so the other posters complaint that we had about equal fouls really holds no water - not just because of 1 game sample size - but because not knowing defensive sets, you should have fouled significantly more. 
8/10/2012 12:55 AM (edited)

Firstly the comment I made you quoted was not for you. Next, I do believe you had the better team but was a bit concerned at how badly I lost at home. I don't look at averages to determine matchups and encourage others not to as well. I believe you made the right call, I guess my main misunderstanding was how much I fouled and how little you fouled running a -4 press. The way you explain it does make since and I don't have any 3 pt shooting. Is this what you mean about setup? I hear this thrown about at random a lot. Team setup. If my setup is bad, why is it bad? because I don't have 3 pt shooting readily available? is something off with my depth? I know I lack ATH in my bench bigs. Thanks for the comment.

8/10/2012 1:22 PM
Oh and I don't fell my -2 call in a 3-2 set was that bad a call as your team shot under 30% from the 3 (6-22). It was pretty much bad FG% all around for you even though you won the game convincingly. I believe running a 3-2 -2 is equivalent to running a mtm +1 so that's why I ran -2.
8/10/2012 1:26 PM
Posted by reddyred on 8/10/2012 1:22:00 PM (view original):

Firstly the comment I made you quoted was not for you. Next, I do believe you had the better team but was a bit concerned at how badly I lost at home. I don't look at averages to determine matchups and encourage others not to as well. I believe you made the right call, I guess my main misunderstanding was how much I fouled and how little you fouled running a -4 press. The way you explain it does make since and I don't have any 3 pt shooting. Is this what you mean about setup? I hear this thrown about at random a lot. Team setup. If my setup is bad, why is it bad? because I don't have 3 pt shooting readily available? is something off with my depth? I know I lack ATH in my bench bigs. Thanks for the comment.

regarding fouls, in a single game, you really just can't look at this stuff very much, as was previously mentioned. doesn't mean its bad to look at single games - its really important to - but just dont read too much into it. the number of fouls my team commits varies wildly, its a really random part of the game. besides, we fouled 23 times running a -2 and -4, thats not a very small number! (compared to my average thus far of 21). your 20 fouls was probably on the high end (compared to your average of 15), which makes it seem like we fouled about the same - but on average, you definitely would have won the foul battle (and that is one of the three major downsides of the press, and probably, the biggest).

anyway, terminology is definitely an issue in this area. team planning means the way you plan your team out, the roles you put together and why, what synergies and strengths and weaknesses result from your composition. team planning is what i consider THE most important factor in success.

team setup is the way you setup your team, given your players. it generally refers to your base setup, not really the game-specific adjustments you make. that is really referred to as game planning. and of course, a lot of coaches use these terms differently, so those are just MY definitions, but i think they make the most sense and are relatively generally accepted.

so, for example, the weakness of your team having little 3 point shooting, that is a team planning failure. you can try to correct for it somewhat in your team setup. in truth, team planning and team setup go hand in hand - you need to build a good team and then have the expertise to set it up correctly, to take advantage of the inherent strengths and to minimize the impact of the inherent weaknesses in your team. team planning is where i was saying i really had you beat - the shape of my team is just better, given the talent level. as i outlined, i felt i had the advantage defensively (even though we were similarly talented, my talent was more suited to my situation, namely, high speed guards), in rebounding (you had more overall reb but mine was more concentrated where it matters, thats a team planning issue), in ball control (again, you had more passing, but my guards were better in this area), and especially, in offense (where our dominant concentration of spd/bh in a couple guards in particular gives us one of the nation's best offenses). those are all team planning functions, and that alone gave me a major advantage in the game.

i didnt say your team setup is bad - i didn't actually go back and read my whole post, but i believe i said i expected i had an advantage there. i am pretty good at setting up teams, and against most stronger opponents, i can usually assume a few point advantage. i was just saying, put that few point advantage with the 5+ point advantage i got from team planning, and the few point advantage i got from game planning (my - defense was more appropriate than yours, i don't think a 3-2 -2 is quite a +1 m2m and a +2 or +3 would have been appropriate if you had been playing m2m), and the couple point advantage i feel i have in raw talent (raw talent just meaning, if you look, player by player, and evaluate their talent, and sum them up across the team - with no regard for if one team has 12 guards or 3 senior sfs or anything like that), and finally, add the few point advantage i have just in the luck of how our teams happen to match up (its not all luck, i mean if you team plan smart, you will match up better against your opponents than they will against you ON AVERAGE, but still within a single game, there is definitely luck in drawing a particular type of opponent) - anyway, it really adds up. knock off a few points for you being home, and im still probably at least close to a 10 point favorite, and in that 90% to win ballpark. so i really don't think you should be that concerned to have lost. 

finally, just to make you feel a bit better - you really didn't lose that badly at home - just 7 points. if you think about it like this, "you lost by 7 points to the #1 rpi team, coached by a guy with 19 championships", then hopefully you will feel better :) sure, that #1 rpi is a sham but still... :) in that sense, you actually did pretty good. i know you have like 30 more points overall, and at a glance, being home, may have actually expected to win. but i think if you really break it down, losing by 7 was actually a solid performance.

ok, i know i said finally, but just to remind you of 1 more factor. you are reading too much into my 9 fouls in the 2nd half at -4, or whatever it was. keep in mind the 13-14 or whatever i committed in the first half playing a -2 was above average. this game is all messed up now, analysis wise, because seble built feedback into a bunch of things - fouls, shots, rebounds, etc... what does that mean? it means if you have something unexpectedly occur on one side of the coin, its significantly more likely that you will see the same unexpected thing happen on the other side of the coin. so if you shoot 0-30 in the first half, its a hell of a lot more likely (although still really unlikely, obviously), that you will shoot 30-30 in the second half - compared to if you had shot your normal 14-30 or whatever in that first half. i had more fouls than i should have early, so that decreased my chance of fouling later. does that make sense?

8/10/2012 5:20 PM
this game is all messed up now, analysis wise, because seble built feedback into a bunch of things - fouls, shots, rebounds, etc... what does that mean? it means if you have something unexpectedly occur on one side of the coin, its significantly more likely that you will see the same unexpected thing happen on the other side of the coin. so if you shoot 0-30 in the first half, its a hell of a lot more likely (although still really unlikely, obviously), that you will shoot 30-30 in the second half - compared to if you had shot your normal 14-30 or whatever in that first half. i had more fouls than i should have early, so that decreased my chance of fouling later.

Wait, WHAT?!

Is that for real?

Is that for really real?

If so, that damn near invalidates this damn game.
8/10/2012 8:32 PM
Yeah, it's for real, but it didn't seem to make a very big difference.
8/10/2012 9:14 PM
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unrealistic vs. most dominant defense hmm which one of those was said?
8/10/2012 10:23 PM
I dont know whether press is dominant

I dont think it matters at all how usage of different systems in HD compares to real life - that is NOT something that should parallel - this is What If - and part of the game is the decisions that coaches make

At least at the DI level, I find it easier to build a successfull man team than press or zone, but I have had some success with each.  I dont think - at DI - that the differences in effectiveness/ease of team building etc are much off reality

That being said, I remain convinced that press and fastbreak should be subsets of schemes and not schemes - I'd like to be able to practice press and then have a setting that says how often do you press - (a) generally and (b) after made baskets - and get to adjust that by percentage or a number from 1 through 5 or whatever

Likewise, I'd have fastbreak be a tendency within systems - how often do you try to fastbreak - 0 to 5 ....


8/10/2012 11:03 PM
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