Posted by sull21858 on 8/16/2012 9:34:00 PM (view original):

Posted by narcotico on 8/16/2012 9:01:00 PM (view original):
The problem with using small numbers like 1,2,3 for your distro is that it's hard to make incremental adjustments. Say you have a guy at 3 and the rest are 1,2,0. If you want to increase his shots a slight amount, the only place to go is 4, which means he all of a sudden has 2x the distro of anybody else.

Using larger numbers will enable you to fine tune a lot more easily.

This is why I always use 100. Allows for a lot more in-season adjustments with minor result changes. Using 1-2-3 you could potentially be increasing the player's probability of taking a shot by 15-25% on certain shifts. That's a pretty significant adjustment.

I usually split the difference and use a base of fifty. The added bonus is that if you need to temporarily boost one player a bunch for a specific game you can do it without monkeying with the rest of the numbers - but there is still enough granularity for more subtle changes if it feels necessary.

Posted by narcotico on 8/16/2012 9:01:00 PM (view original):
The problem with using small numbers like 1,2,3 for your distro is that it's hard to make incremental adjustments. Say you have a guy at 3 and the rest are 1,2,0. If you want to increase his shots a slight amount, the only place to go is 4, which means he all of a sudden has 2x the distro of anybody else.

Using larger numbers will enable you to fine tune a lot more easily.

If I wanted to increase that guy's shots a slight amount it would be easy.  Say it was 3-2-2-1-1 among five guys before adjustment.  If I moved it to 4 I would only be moving his distro from 33 to 40% of the total, and, if the guys set at 2 are on the floor with him, from 43 to 50% of that group.  But I might also move one of the 2's to 3 or one of the 1's to 2, in which case the big guy's percentage would move only from 33 to 36% of the total.  Meanwhile, if your total adds up to 100 it's not any easier to make incremental adjustments, as in that case you need to move one or more players' dist. down when you move another's up.  So IMHO those large numbers make it harder, not easier.

I well remember losing to Greensboro in Tark multiple times (a memory shared by many D3 coaches in that world), and what I remember most about it is being overwhelmed by the talent you had accumulated, rosters that seriously could have contended for D2 titles.  I could have had the most efficient distro anywhere (I didn't) and still would have been lucky to keep it competitive.  So I tend to attribute those results mostly to your recruiting; which, in spite of the the finer points we are discussing here, I think most coaches would agree is the larger part of the battle.

Posted by dahsdebater on 8/16/2012 9:12:00 PM (view original):
Well point_piper's argument is that your guy with 20 distro frequently shoots more than your 25 guy.  That may be true, but if you look at big enough samples it isn't, and the same guy set to 25 will shoot more more frequently.  If you thought the first 25 guy was better then I don't see how you're doing yourself any favors bringing the other guy to the same level just because the difference isn't big.  Like I said, I don't think 1,2,3 hurts you against teams where you have a significant advantage based on talent (say, at least 7 points worth).  Any closer than that and you really start to hurt your odds when you don't take advantage of all the tools you have available.

I have looked at big samples, multiple seasons' worth.  Number one, the difference between 20 and 25 is worth roughly one field goal attempt per game, if and only if in-game factors are equal.  And number two, they are not equal.  I.e. in the current version of the sim engine, if the 20 guy is a guard he will take more shots than the 25 guy over a full season if the latter is a post.  If a good majority of zone teams you face prefer 2-3 over 3-2 (and most zoners continue to prefer 2-3) then the 20 guard will shoot way more than the 25 post.

Posted by ericksonp on 8/16/2012 9:33:00 PM (view original):

I may have a unique way of doing it, but the way that has worked best for me (in both triangle and flex offenses) is to assign the amount of shots I want a certain player to take. Basically I figure out the average amount of shots my team will take and then assign each player a number I'd like them to take. It is not 100% precise with the total amount obviously, but the vast majority of the time its within a few shots of my targeted total shots. 

Just my two cents. I find it a lot better than assigning percentages.

Hmm . . . I really like that.  One of the things that always irked me about the hundred-point scale was that 100 is nearly two times the number of shots you take in a game.  (My team averaged 51.55 and 51.77 the last two years I believe, of couse it would be more for a running and/or pressing team.)

Posted by point_piper on 8/16/2012 11:40:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 8/16/2012 9:12:00 PM (view original):
Well point_piper's argument is that your guy with 20 distro frequently shoots more than your 25 guy.  That may be true, but if you look at big enough samples it isn't, and the same guy set to 25 will shoot more more frequently.  If you thought the first 25 guy was better then I don't see how you're doing yourself any favors bringing the other guy to the same level just because the difference isn't big.  Like I said, I don't think 1,2,3 hurts you against teams where you have a significant advantage based on talent (say, at least 7 points worth).  Any closer than that and you really start to hurt your odds when you don't take advantage of all the tools you have available.

I have looked at big samples, multiple seasons' worth.  Number one, the difference between 20 and 25 is worth roughly one field goal attempt per game, if and only if in-game factors are equal.  And number two, they are not equal.  I.e. in the current version of the sim engine, if the 20 guy is a guard he will take more shots than the 25 guy over a full season if the latter is a post.  If a good majority of zone teams you face prefer 2-3 over 3-2 (and most zoners continue to prefer 2-3) then the 20 guard will shoot way more than the 25 post.

If I'm facing 2-3 zones the majority of my games, I'd prefer the 20 distro guard to be shooting instead of the 25 distro big.  That seems like an optimal adjustment by the sim.

And I thought that distro was just that a play was run for a certain player, not that it necessarily meant he'd take a shot?  So against a 2-3, maybe the ball is passed into the 25 distro big but he passes out to an open perimeter player.  I know long ago there was a big debate about whether distro had a direct correlation to fga or just to plays run for the player (not necessarily ending in a shot), but I don't know that a conclusion was reached.

Posted by a_in_the_b on 8/16/2012 11:01:00 PM (view original):

Posted by sull21858 on 8/16/2012 9:34:00 PM (view original):

Posted by narcotico on 8/16/2012 9:01:00 PM (view original):
The problem with using small numbers like 1,2,3 for your distro is that it's hard to make incremental adjustments. Say you have a guy at 3 and the rest are 1,2,0. If you want to increase his shots a slight amount, the only place to go is 4, which means he all of a sudden has 2x the distro of anybody else.

Using larger numbers will enable you to fine tune a lot more easily.

This is why I always use 100. Allows for a lot more in-season adjustments with minor result changes. Using 1-2-3 you could potentially be increasing the player's probability of taking a shot by 15-25% on certain shifts. That's a pretty significant adjustment.

I usually split the difference and use a base of fifty. The added bonus is that if you need to temporarily boost one player a bunch for a specific game you can do it without monkeying with the rest of the numbers - but there is still enough granularity for more subtle changes if it feels necessary.

Like that too, for same reason I like ericksonp's approach:  50 is much closer to actual number of FGA's in a game than 100 is.

Posted by ryrun on 8/16/2012 11:50:00 PM (view original):

Posted by point_piper on 8/16/2012 11:40:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 8/16/2012 9:12:00 PM (view original):
Well point_piper's argument is that your guy with 20 distro frequently shoots more than your 25 guy.  That may be true, but if you look at big enough samples it isn't, and the same guy set to 25 will shoot more more frequently.  If you thought the first 25 guy was better then I don't see how you're doing yourself any favors bringing the other guy to the same level just because the difference isn't big.  Like I said, I don't think 1,2,3 hurts you against teams where you have a significant advantage based on talent (say, at least 7 points worth).  Any closer than that and you really start to hurt your odds when you don't take advantage of all the tools you have available.

I have looked at big samples, multiple seasons' worth.  Number one, the difference between 20 and 25 is worth roughly one field goal attempt per game, if and only if in-game factors are equal.  And number two, they are not equal.  I.e. in the current version of the sim engine, if the 20 guy is a guard he will take more shots than the 25 guy over a full season if the latter is a post.  If a good majority of zone teams you face prefer 2-3 over 3-2 (and most zoners continue to prefer 2-3) then the 20 guard will shoot way more than the 25 post.

If I'm facing 2-3 zones the majority of my games, I'd prefer the 20 distro guard to be shooting instead of the 25 distro big.  That seems like an optimal adjustment by the sim.

And I thought that distro was just that a play was run for a certain player, not that it necessarily meant he'd take a shot?  So against a 2-3, maybe the ball is passed into the 25 distro big but he passes out to an open perimeter player.  I know long ago there was a big debate about whether distro had a direct correlation to fga or just to plays run for the player (not necessarily ending in a shot), but I don't know that a conclusion was reached.

Agreed, I like that adjustment by the sim; but IMHO the sim will make a better adjustment if they are both set at 1.

Agreed again, I think we read the same threads about what distro really means, and also what you describe is closer to whatif's definition.  Just based on observation though (again, anecdotal but dogged), what distro. means in practice is which player is shooting.

Posted by point_piper on 8/16/2012 11:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by narcotico on 8/16/2012 9:01:00 PM (view original):
The problem with using small numbers like 1,2,3 for your distro is that it's hard to make incremental adjustments. Say you have a guy at 3 and the rest are 1,2,0. If you want to increase his shots a slight amount, the only place to go is 4, which means he all of a sudden has 2x the distro of anybody else.

Using larger numbers will enable you to fine tune a lot more easily.

If I wanted to increase that guy's shots a slight amount it would be easy.  Say it was 3-2-2-1-1 among five guys before adjustment.  If I moved it to 4 I would only be moving his distro from 33 to 40% of the total, and, if the guys set at 2 are on the floor with him, from 43 to 50% of that group.  But I might also move one of the 2's to 3 or one of the 1's to 2, in which case the big guy's percentage would move only from 33 to 36% of the total.  Meanwhile, if your total adds up to 100 it's not any easier to make incremental adjustments, as in that case you need to move one or more players' dist. down when you move another's up.  So IMHO those large numbers make it harder, not easier.

I well remember losing to Greensboro in Tark multiple times (a memory shared by many D3 coaches in that world), and what I remember most about it is being overwhelmed by the talent you had accumulated, rosters that seriously could have contended for D2 titles.  I could have had the most efficient distro anywhere (I didn't) and still would have been lucky to keep it competitive.  So I tend to attribute those results mostly to your recruiting; which, in spite of the the finer points we are discussing here, I think most coaches would agree is the larger part of the battle.

Well sure, no doubt recruiting is the biggest factor in winning but that really doesn't have much to do with the current discussion.

More on topic, you are right that distro should not total 100, because you cannot add to a players distro without removing distro from somebody else. However a 3-2-1 system just isn't precise enough for subtle adjustments. As you cite in that example the smallest adjustment you can make to a player is 7%, which is way too big of a change in many cases IMO.

For flexibility, precision, and ease of use it's probably best to have your totals in the 40-80 range. You can fiddle with a guy's distro in precise small(or large) increments, up or down, without having to mess with other players.

Posted by point_piper on 8/16/2012 11:50:00 PM (view original):

Posted by ericksonp on 8/16/2012 9:33:00 PM (view original):

I may have a unique way of doing it, but the way that has worked best for me (in both triangle and flex offenses) is to assign the amount of shots I want a certain player to take. Basically I figure out the average amount of shots my team will take and then assign each player a number I'd like them to take. It is not 100% precise with the total amount obviously, but the vast majority of the time its within a few shots of my targeted total shots. 

Just my two cents. I find it a lot better than assigning percentages.

Hmm . . . I really like that.  One of the things that always irked me about the hundred-point scale was that 100 is nearly two times the number of shots you take in a game.  (My team averaged 51.55 and 51.77 the last two years I believe, of couse it would be more for a running and/or pressing team.)

Yeah my team averages mid 50's usually. I find it easier than trying to figure a percentage out, just that I'd like to run approximately X amount of plays for each player. It's especially helpful if you have a dominant scorer off the bench.

Posted by ericksonp on 8/16/2012 9:33:00 PM (view original):

I may have a unique way of doing it, but the way that has worked best for me (in both triangle and flex offenses) is to assign the amount of shots I want a certain player to take. Basically I figure out the average amount of shots my team will take and then assign each player a number I'd like them to take. It is not 100% precise with the total amount obviously, but the vast majority of the time its within a few shots of my targeted total shots. 

Just my two cents. I find it a lot better than assigning percentages.

Are there times when the engine seems to have completely ignored your distro completely? If so how often you think?

Posted by narcotico on 8/17/2012 12:37:00 AM (view original):

Posted by point_piper on 8/16/2012 11:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by narcotico on 8/16/2012 9:01:00 PM (view original):
The problem with using small numbers like 1,2,3 for your distro is that it's hard to make incremental adjustments. Say you have a guy at 3 and the rest are 1,2,0. If you want to increase his shots a slight amount, the only place to go is 4, which means he all of a sudden has 2x the distro of anybody else.

Using larger numbers will enable you to fine tune a lot more easily.

If I wanted to increase that guy's shots a slight amount it would be easy.  Say it was 3-2-2-1-1 among five guys before adjustment.  If I moved it to 4 I would only be moving his distro from 33 to 40% of the total, and, if the guys set at 2 are on the floor with him, from 43 to 50% of that group.  But I might also move one of the 2's to 3 or one of the 1's to 2, in which case the big guy's percentage would move only from 33 to 36% of the total.  Meanwhile, if your total adds up to 100 it's not any easier to make incremental adjustments, as in that case you need to move one or more players' dist. down when you move another's up.  So IMHO those large numbers make it harder, not easier.

I well remember losing to Greensboro in Tark multiple times (a memory shared by many D3 coaches in that world), and what I remember most about it is being overwhelmed by the talent you had accumulated, rosters that seriously could have contended for D2 titles.  I could have had the most efficient distro anywhere (I didn't) and still would have been lucky to keep it competitive.  So I tend to attribute those results mostly to your recruiting; which, in spite of the the finer points we are discussing here, I think most coaches would agree is the larger part of the battle.

Well sure, no doubt recruiting is the biggest factor in winning but that really doesn't have much to do with the current discussion.

More on topic, you are right that distro should not total 100, because you cannot add to a players distro without removing distro from somebody else. However a 3-2-1 system just isn't precise enough for subtle adjustments. As you cite in that example the smallest adjustment you can make to a player is 7%, which is way too big of a change in many cases IMO.

For flexibility, precision, and ease of use it's probably best to have your totals in the 40-80 range. You can fiddle with a guy's distro in precise small(or large) increments, up or down, without having to mess with other players.

Actually the smaller adjustment in the example I cited was 3% (33.33 to 36.36, to be precise), not 7.  And between that it would be easy to go from 33.33 to 37.5.  But the 40-80 range is intriguing, especially the 50-ish range as discussed above.

As for recruiting, I just meant that things other than fine points of distro seemed key in facing Greensboro back then.  And as I think of it again this morning, I think I was still using a 100-point scale most of the time in that world.  Not sure though.

Also it was intended as a compliment.

yeah, i am totally against the 100 point system, it artificially constrains you, like narcotico said. i really do think there is a difference between a 12 and a 14, or and 11 and a 14, and you should try to control things at that level of detail. its not always going to play out exactly as you like, but you can exert finer control over the situation if you use the bigger numbers. also, you cant just look at fga, you have to look at fouls too - or at least, approximate by checking the players fta. when you have your top distro player take 6 field goals, but also 8 free throws, that does not mean your distro was not followed - just that when you tried to run a play through your player, he got fouled a lot. 

that kind of plays into what piper was saying about guards vs bigs... its one reason a guard will take more fga than a big with the same distro, because bigs tend to get fouled more and take more free throws.

Posted by rednation58 on 8/17/2012 9:59:00 AM (view original):

Posted by ericksonp on 8/16/2012 9:33:00 PM (view original):

I may have a unique way of doing it, but the way that has worked best for me (in both triangle and flex offenses) is to assign the amount of shots I want a certain player to take. Basically I figure out the average amount of shots my team will take and then assign each player a number I'd like them to take. It is not 100% precise with the total amount obviously, but the vast majority of the time its within a few shots of my targeted total shots. 

Just my two cents. I find it a lot better than assigning percentages.

Are there times when the engine seems to have completely ignored your distro completely? If so how often you think?

It does happen occasionally, especially early in a season I've found when I'm still tinkering with the new team/rotation. Last two years I had a star SG and C and tried for even distro. Early both years the SG was taking significantly more shots, but it was just an outlier I believe. Really by the middle of non-con it seems to be pretty accurate and certainly by post-season I've been very happy with it.

Of course foul trouble and all that good stuff can change things, but all being equal, I've found it pretty accurate and rarely frustrated.

Thanks for the idea erick. I just tried it out and my best scorers shot a couple more shots than I allocated, and one other guy shot way more than I allocated but I think that's due to me moving him from the starting lineup. Everyone else shot exactly what I wanted. I definitely feel I have more control now. Thanks again.