Another D1 Recruiting Question Topic

Posted by tianyi7886 on 8/21/2012 3:01:00 PM (view original):
Posted by coach_billyg on 8/21/2012 12:52:00 PM (view original):
prestige advantage is being overstated IMO. B- to B+ is roughly equal to the 10 to 250 mile difference. B- to A is roughly equal to the 10 to 400 mile difference. distance advantage really does matter, and it really does equalize prestige to a significant degree. now, you can't underestimate that big 6 money if you don't have it... and you have to look at the circumstances, who are the teams you are worried about, what do they need, who are they after, who are they battling... to know if you should press your luck on a recruit. but it can be done. if i had, for example, b- prestige colorado, and there were local recruits, and no local big boys, i would consider it insanity NOT to jump on that 4 or 5 star rec recruit that was next door.

now, you are in portland, im not sure the same situation can apply. but if the case is really what you suggest, B+ is over 200, no A- or better within 360, then you might push your luck. theres a major difference between colorado and portland and that is of course big 6 money... which is probably a good 20-30K advantage. you should obviously be calculating that every season. anyway, big schools do often care about walkons to some degree, you can half way neutralize that 20-30k by floating 2 walkons every season. you really just have to be creative, and know that you are never sure to win a top player. but that doesn't mean you don't play.
It's all relative when it comes to 4/5 stars. I know utvol at South Carolina dropped his entire budget on a 5 star 10 miles away, with either 3 or 4 slots, and lost the battle convincingly a few seasons ago. Meanwhile, LSU signed a 5 star uncontested without getting "very tight," and it was a legitimate 5 star sf. At the same time, ACC teams + PAC 10 team battled Utah in Utah for a 5 star recruit. 

Every case varies for sure. But for a conf with playoff cash less than 8k, I think it would be nuts for a B- to jump out onto a 5 star right away. It just screams "poach me."

And I think I might even be underrepping prestige in my range. One of the recent battles I remember had my opponent dropping 85% more cash on the recruit, with him having a distance advantage (he was within 250, I was outside 360), so overall effort was greater than 85%. I ended up winning the battle with B- against his C-. I would say that your range of 10 to 400 miles for B- to A is undervaluing prestige by a big margin. 
you never can talk about a battle in terms of money, its all about effort. how efficient was the spending of the money? knowing who you are, and knowing the other school is a C-, the smart money is you had at least a decent (10-20%) bonus on spending money properly.

i have ALWAYS felt the community, almost every last one of them except for kmason, over valued prestige. i dont know why this is but i have a couple guesses... but regardless, usually if like 100 people think something is one way, and you think its another, you have to figure you are wrong. ive tried, but i just cant accept it in this case, i tried to incorporate higher prestige values into battles i saved and it just didnt work, and then everything ive seen says it cant be that high, both with the higher prestige, and with lower prestige.

anyway, i figure there is a reason with a B south carolina, and 30K less bonus money, i won a local for both of us star pf off A+ duke, just a few seasons back. theres a reason with a B+ the next season, when A+ unc jumped a 5 star sf i had, i returned the favor by poaching an international. these are both higher than A+ A+s too, as would be expected at those schools with the coaches they have. in both cases the other school had as many or more scholarships too, i actually think one had 1 more and the other 2 more, but it might have only been +0/+1... and then there was the 20-30K in both money they had over me too..

unless i am totally off base in my estimations of how much money the other schools had to spend - and i won both battles by slim margins, right where i expected, so im doubting that is the case - there is no way prestige can be a 70, 80, 90% bonus for a letter grade - i was substantially more than a letter grade off in both cases. so either i know something about how to spend money effectively that these other coaches don't (which i am doubting), or i just can't see prestige being anywhere near that high. the belief really comes from many battles saved & analyzed leading to a certain prestige value being the only acceptable value, but those 2 battles which were my most recent two battles in d1 leave me pretty confident i correctly peg prestige lower than the generally accepted values.
8/22/2012 3:48 PM (edited)
I gave you the distance value and its outside of 360 to within 250. He had the distance edge so his effort put in must at least equal 85% more than me, unless he spent a ton on SVs. He spent 85% more cash than me and had the distance edge and still lost, suggesting that my range is has to be pretty accurate, if not conservative.

And just for clarifications sake, in this specific battle, the coach spent every dime he had on the recruit (he dumped his entire budget, signed no one), so I know for a fact how much cash he spent on the recruit. For your 5 star battles, unless Duke spent all his money on the battle and lost, there is no way your budget estimation of your opponent is more accurate than mine. 
8/22/2012 3:48 PM
the difference of HV and CV usage is significant and not that many coaches go 100% into the correct one. i mean plenty do but more do not. so again, you cannot assume equal value of money used in that sense. do you remember what you did?
8/22/2012 3:49 PM
Posted by coach_billyg on 8/22/2012 3:49:00 PM (view original):
the difference of HV and CV usage is significant and not that many coaches go 100% into the correct one. i mean plenty do but more do not. so again, you cannot assume equal value of money used in that sense. do you remember what you did?
I sent 2 HV with rest going as CVs. 

And sure CV/HV ratio could be off, but he again had the distance advantage. With 85% more cash and distance advantage, I would maintain that my estimate of 1.7-1.8 for a full letter is probably not off by alot. Suppose he used the most inefficient form of hv/cv ratio, it would erase what, 25-30% of his effort. So if you assume we were at the same distance (but we are not), the full letter grade bonus is at least 1.85- (.25 to .3), or 1.55 to 1.6.
8/22/2012 3:55 PM (edited)
i dont know why but every time i read your post i think you had distance advantage, and then re-read, and you said the opposite. somehow its throwing me off. let me think about it again, that is a lot of difference.
8/22/2012 4:07 PM
Posted by tianyi7886 on 8/22/2012 3:50:00 PM (view original):
I gave you the distance value and its outside of 360 to within 250. He had the distance edge so his effort put in must at least equal 85% more than me, unless he spent a ton on SVs. He spent 85% more cash than me and had the distance edge and still lost, suggesting that my range is has to be pretty accurate, if not conservative.

And just for clarifications sake, in this specific battle, the coach spent every dime he had on the recruit (he dumped his entire budget, signed no one), so I know for a fact how much cash he spent on the recruit. For your 5 star battles, unless Duke spent all his money on the battle and lost, there is no way your budget estimation of your opponent is more accurate than mine. 
well, considering they had about 50K on me and probably closer to 2 grades than 1, i know they didn't spend it all. hard to guess what they spent, but i have watched the coach a number of times and i feel i have a decently good idea what they keep in reserve.

also its hard to assume the other coach in your example spend money on nothing, unless you asked him, because they might have went for other recruits in the first cycle and just not shown up, or whatever... still that probably isnt that big of a difference.
8/22/2012 4:10 PM
Ok let's use your math here. Assume I spent 10k and he spent 18.5k (85% more cash). 

My 10k = 7 CV + 2 HV. 
His 18.5k, assuming he spent half CV half HV = 9 CV + 22 HV.

Use the 2HV = 1 CV ratio, here are the effort put in:

Me: = 8 CV
Him: 9 CV +22/2 = 20 CV

Use the 2.5HV = 1 CV ratio
Me = ~8 CV
Him = 9 CV + 22/2.5 = 17.5 CV.

Sure, assume he spent 3 CVs worth of cash scouting the player (I'll buy that, since the player was high potential in 7 categories), hes still putting in 14.5 CV at the 2.5HV/1CV ratio.

With your math of 40%, I'm only putting in 8*1.4 = 11.2 CVs. I should have lost by a mile. 

Edit: Prestige is fluid so it could be closer to 1+1/3 of a letter grade rather than 1, but 1.4 still looks tiny. If you think prestige factors are additive rather than multiplicative, at 1.4 for 1 letter, 1+1/3 would be at 1.53. 1.53 * 8 CV and I'm still behind at 12.25 CV. Under this scenario, I can only win with prestige is additive and the full letter grade factor is greater than 1.55 while he used CVs thats closer to 75%. 

8/22/2012 4:39 PM (edited)
Wow, didn't realize I needed a slide rule, protractor, TI85 graphic calculator, abacus, all ten fingers and toes, and a PhD in Physics to recruit.
8/22/2012 4:43 PM
yeah im not sure what i was thinking there, 85% cash less distance advantage sounded about right, but with him having the distance advantage, not you, thats a huge margin. i wish i still had my old computer so i could look at some of the battles i saved... i dont have even 1 on this computer.

i dont know what to say really, i cant imagine a 1.8 prestige ever leading me to win battles spending less than 80K on players with no distance edge, and to over come 1.5 prestige grades.

the 85% cash and distance just sounds like too much... even for your prestige values. the distance advantage of 370 vs 250 when half CV and half HV is pretty significant right.... if you are basically going all out CV (50K or whatever u spent of 2 HV doesnt matter i think), hes anywhere from 1300/1000, 30% to 1300/800 (if HV are 2:1 and he uses them), 62%. worst case hes at least a 30% favorite there, which multiplies with the 85%, for a 143% net advantage on you. your prestige grade would have to give you well over a 2:1 advantage, and i think everyone accepts that isnt the case. or you could have had as much as a 1.33 prestige grade advantage, at which point 2:1 prestige grade advantage gives you a 151% advantage, just barely making it possible for you to win.

i just wonder if the coach really spent a lot of money somewhere else, because at 1 prestige grade, the numbers just dont make any sense, and at the very limit 1.333 grades, its still a value that almost everyone these days is against. the double prestige grade thing went around for a while but i think people have tried to use it and it just doesnt work.
8/22/2012 4:45 PM
I lost a battle at B- against A- in Knight against vrambball this recruiting cycle. I asked him how much effort he put in so we can get more data. 

I had 1 scholarship and started recruiting with a little under 26k cash. Jumped on a recruit from WY (I was in IL and out about 1000 miles) against a D team with ~23k remaining after FSS, Wisconsin jumps in cycle before signing and I ended up dumping everything except 1800 on him. So I put in 15 CV (now confirmed by going through my Knight inbox). The recruit signed at the 11am cycle day after signing with Wisconsin. I was definitely behind by the 7am cycle, and possibly already behind by the 2am cycle on signing day with a new FSS message: 

"Coach, I really appreciate you having enough faith in me to extend me a scholarship offer. I hope that you have enough faith to wait for me to visit some other schools - they really have made their programs sound great and to be honest, I'm not sure where I'll be next year."
8/22/2012 5:03 PM (edited)
Posted by tianyi7886 on 8/22/2012 4:39:00 PM (view original):
Ok let's use your math here. Assume I spent 10k and he spent 18.5k (85% more cash). 

My 10k = 7 CV + 2 HV. 
His 18.5k, assuming he spent half CV half HV = 9 CV + 22 HV.

Use the 2HV = 1 CV ratio, here are the effort put in:

Me: = 8 CV
Him: 9 CV +22/2 = 20 CV

Use the 2.5HV = 1 CV ratio
Me = ~8 CV
Him = 9 CV + 22/2.5 = 17.5 CV.

Sure, assume he spent 3 CVs worth of cash scouting the player (I'll buy that, since the player was high potential in 7 categories), hes still putting in 14.5 CV at the 2.5HV/1CV ratio.

With your math of 40%, I'm only putting in 8*1.4 = 11.2 CVs. I should have lost by a mile. 

Edit: Prestige is fluid so it could be closer to 1+1/3 of a letter grade rather than 1, but 1.4 still looks tiny. If you think prestige factors are additive rather than multiplicative, at 1.4 for 1 letter, 1+1/3 would be at 1.53. 1.53 * 8 CV and I'm still behind at 12.25 CV. Under this scenario, I can only win with prestige is additive and the full letter grade factor is greater than 1.55 while he used CVs thats closer to 75%. 

in the math i did, which made no sense and so i took it down, i somehow came up with 40%... dont ask me how. i was thinking distance was in your favor but i dont even think thats how i figured it, i dont know. anyway, i really would put it at 50% per grade advantage, and i think we can be fairly certain prestige does not scale linearly (A = 2B, B = 2C, then A=4C by simple substitution but linear suggests A=3C). so i would give 1 and 1/3rd up to 1.71% advantage, which still does not come close to explaining his huge advantage, i think. but i think you need prestige value of 2:1 to even come close to justifying it...
8/22/2012 4:54 PM
I dont think the prestige diff is enough to worry about imo.  Id battle anyone if all else was equal.  The $ is what matters.  Not spending it correctly can cause you to lose unless you have spent alot more $.
8/22/2012 5:24 PM
Posted by brip87 on 8/22/2012 5:24:00 PM (view original):
I dont think the prestige diff is enough to worry about imo.  Id battle anyone if all else was equal.  The $ is what matters.  Not spending it correctly can cause you to lose unless you have spent alot more $.
this statement is much more true in d2 and d3 than it is in d1. i agree though that not spending money correctly is a big factor, it can outweigh smaller prestige advantages, and at least significantly help compensate for bigger ones.
8/22/2012 5:28 PM
Even in d1 I dont think its a big deal the big deal is all the extra money they get plus the opprotunity to have rollover $.  If distance is equal And $ was equal.  Id love my chances against 80% of the ppl playing.  The key to low level d1 is walkons and knowing how to spend $.  You cant let ego get in the way you have to knwo when to fold them.  Sucks they took away boosters it leveled the playing field.
8/22/2012 5:34 PM
Several times in this thread some have referenced the need to spend money "correctly."  Can you elaborate and give examples of spending money "correctly" and "incorrectly".  Thanks!  I guess if I spend my money "incorrectly" then I need out with the old strategy and in with the new!  Thanks for the help.  
8/22/2012 5:56 PM
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