Posted by dahsdebater on 9/6/2012 6:25:00 PM (view original):
Sergei, you are absolutely wrong.  In the current engine all my data strongly suggests that tempo does not impact opponents' fatigue.  The only exception to this is that running uptempo can cause you to draw more total fouls, so if you get a couple of their players in foul trouble and held out you effectively shrink the size of their rotation and thereby fatigue the guys still playing more than you otherwise would.

Posted by dahsdebater on 9/6/2012 6:25:00 PM (view original):
Sergei, you are absolutely wrong.  In the current engine all my data strongly suggests that tempo does not impact opponents' fatigue.  The only exception to this is that running uptempo can cause you to draw more total fouls, so if you get a couple of their players in foul trouble and held out you effectively shrink the size of their rotation and thereby fatigue the guys still playing more than you otherwise would.

Posted by Iguana1 on 9/6/2012 8:49:00 PM (view original):
just thought I'd share some info I gathered over the past couple seasons.

I looked at my team that played a slowdown tempo every game for two seasons.   I then looked at the first time a player was substituted out of the game (non-foul trouble).  Then compared that to the number of possessions in that first half.

When breaking the 60 games into 4 segments of 15 games;

Quickest tempo          my starters subbed out after   7:49
Second quickest        my starters subbed out after   9:15
Third quickest             my starters subbed out after  11:20
Slowest tempo           my starters subbed out after  13:15


Perhaps, those that believe your tempo (or more accurately the total possessions) has no effect on your opponents fatigue, need to look a bit closer at the substitution pattern.
 

Posted by Iguana1 on 9/6/2012 8:49:00 PM (view original):
just thought I'd share some info I gathered over the past couple seasons.

I looked at my team that played a slowdown tempo every game for two seasons.   I then looked at the first time a player was substituted out of the game (non-foul trouble).  Then compared that to the number of possessions in that first half.

When breaking the 60 games into 4 segments of 15 games;

Quickest tempo          my starters subbed out after   7:49
Second quickest        my starters subbed out after   9:15
Third quickest             my starters subbed out after  11:20
Slowest tempo           my starters subbed out after  13:15


Perhaps, those that believe your tempo (or more accurately the total possessions) has no effect on your opponents fatigue, need to look a bit closer at the substitution pattern.
 

Posted by sergei1991 on 9/6/2012 10:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 9/6/2012 6:25:00 PM (view original):
Sergei, you are absolutely wrong.  In the current engine all my data strongly suggests that tempo does not impact opponents' fatigue.  The only exception to this is that running uptempo can cause you to draw more total fouls, so if you get a couple of their players in foul trouble and held out you effectively shrink the size of their rotation and thereby fatigue the guys still playing more than you otherwise would.

dahsdebater, I can tell you with 98.5% certainty that running uptempo does impact your opponent's fatigue in terms of number of shots. The more shots you take, the more they are likely to take.  My U of Cal (PA) team that went 35-0 wore people down with uptempo and I constantly saw the other team with fatigue issues-without being in foul trouble.  I know this because I have kept track of teams that play a + setting against me (especially +2 or greater which as you know helps keeps a team out of foul trouble) and where uptempo has been ran by either side or both sides.  I look to see if it is just foul trouble that impacts fatigue, or if the number shots *seems* to impact fatigue- or both.  I also have a FB/FCP team in Naismith so this info is very relevant to me.  It has been my conclusion so far that the opponents are affected by number of shots...   I obviously agree re: the foul trouble issue...  

Posted by udm_mike on 9/7/2012 5:17:00 AM (view original):

Posted by sergei1991 on 9/6/2012 10:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 9/6/2012 6:25:00 PM (view original):
Sergei, you are absolutely wrong.  In the current engine all my data strongly suggests that tempo does not impact opponents' fatigue.  The only exception to this is that running uptempo can cause you to draw more total fouls, so if you get a couple of their players in foul trouble and held out you effectively shrink the size of their rotation and thereby fatigue the guys still playing more than you otherwise would.

dahsdebater, I can tell you with 98.5% certainty that running uptempo does impact your opponent's fatigue in terms of number of shots. The more shots you take, the more they are likely to take.  My U of Cal (PA) team that went 35-0 wore people down with uptempo and I constantly saw the other team with fatigue issues-without being in foul trouble.  I know this because I have kept track of teams that play a + setting against me (especially +2 or greater which as you know helps keeps a team out of foul trouble) and where uptempo has been ran by either side or both sides.  I look to see if it is just foul trouble that impacts fatigue, or if the number shots *seems* to impact fatigue- or both.  I also have a FB/FCP team in Naismith so this info is very relevant to me.  It has been my conclusion so far that the opponents are affected by number of shots...   I obviously agree re: the foul trouble issue...  

I run almost exclusively uptempo (FB/FCP) and I can say with all certainty - I never, ever, notice an effect on the other team being worn down.

At one point Tarek said fatigue is based on possessions.  But I really hadn't noticed the opponents being more or less fatigued when I changed my tempo.
In the past year I started looking a bit closer at the substitution patterns and there seemed to be more credibility to that (possessions=fatigue)  than I originally thought.

The example I gave above was from one of my teams for the two most recent seasons.  After any recent engine adjustments.  The game plan really didn't change much.  I ran the same depth chart each game.  Ran slow tempo each game.

A reason I only looked at the first half was for the consistent starting point. 
Second halves can contain some fatigue carryover from the first half, as well as the second half more often than the first turns into a rout which results in more liberal subs or at times they can turn into a foul fest. 

I used a rough formula to estimate possessions.   FGA+ (FTA/1.7) + TO - Off Reb

I broke the 60 games played into 4 equal groups of 15 games based entirely on the estimated number of possessions in the first half.
The 15 fastest paced games averaged around 65 possessions in the first half.
The 15 games with the fewest possessions averaged in the mid 40's.
I was somewhat surprised to see almost a lineal line between the number of possessions and the amount of time a player was on the court prior to being subbed out.
 

Posted by sergei1991 on 9/7/2012 9:54:00 AM (view original):

Posted by udm_mike on 9/7/2012 5:17:00 AM (view original):

Posted by sergei1991 on 9/6/2012 10:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 9/6/2012 6:25:00 PM (view original):
Sergei, you are absolutely wrong.  In the current engine all my data strongly suggests that tempo does not impact opponents' fatigue.  The only exception to this is that running uptempo can cause you to draw more total fouls, so if you get a couple of their players in foul trouble and held out you effectively shrink the size of their rotation and thereby fatigue the guys still playing more than you otherwise would.

dahsdebater, I can tell you with 98.5% certainty that running uptempo does impact your opponent's fatigue in terms of number of shots. The more shots you take, the more they are likely to take.  My U of Cal (PA) team that went 35-0 wore people down with uptempo and I constantly saw the other team with fatigue issues-without being in foul trouble.  I know this because I have kept track of teams that play a + setting against me (especially +2 or greater which as you know helps keeps a team out of foul trouble) and where uptempo has been ran by either side or both sides.  I look to see if it is just foul trouble that impacts fatigue, or if the number shots *seems* to impact fatigue- or both.  I also have a FB/FCP team in Naismith so this info is very relevant to me.  It has been my conclusion so far that the opponents are affected by number of shots...   I obviously agree re: the foul trouble issue...  

I run almost exclusively uptempo (FB/FCP) and I can say with all certainty - I never, ever, notice an effect on the other team being worn down.

One thing is for sure, we certainly agree to disagree...

Posted by Iguana1 on 9/7/2012 11:28:00 AM (view original):

At one point Tarek said fatigue is based on possessions.  But I really hadn't noticed the opponents being more or less fatigued when I changed my tempo.
In the past year I started looking a bit closer at the substitution patterns and there seemed to be more credibility to that (possessions=fatigue)  than I originally thought.

The example I gave above was from one of my teams for the two most recent seasons.  After any recent engine adjustments.  The game plan really didn't change much.  I ran the same depth chart each game.  Ran slow tempo each game.

A reason I only looked at the first half was for the consistent starting point. 
Second halves can contain some fatigue carryover from the first half, as well as the second half more often than the first turns into a rout which results in more liberal subs or at times they can turn into a foul fest. 

I used a rough formula to estimate possessions.   FGA+ (FTA/1.7) + TO - Off Reb

I broke the 60 games played into 4 equal groups of 15 games based entirely on the estimated number of possessions in the first half.
The 15 fastest paced games averaged around 65 possessions in the first half.
The 15 games with the fewest possessions averaged in the mid 40's.
I was somewhat surprised to see almost a lineal line between the number of possessions and the amount of time a player was on the court prior to being subbed out.