If you have made promises to a player (or even otherwise) at D3, what is the tipping point or message that indicates they will transfer?
I can stomach some W/e drop, but didn't know if there was a point when you could tell they would transfer. Does any W/E drop mean they may transfer or does it have to drop close to zero?
I plan to play the guy some and start when matchups work out, but would rather not give all the starts needed to avoid a w/e drop (I think you can miss up to 4 starts if they are spread out w/o an upset letter). Player will hit minutes promise regardless.
The player is Jenkins on my CNU team. He has a strong w/e so even a 30 point w/e drop wouldn't be a big deal as long as he doesn't transfer

AFAIK there is no way to know for certain if he will transfer or not. If you don't meet the promise there's a chance he will go - Murphy's Law dictates that the more you want him to stay the more likely he is to leave, and vice versa. 

Somewhere in the forms it says he must start 80% of regular season games which would be 21, not to get him upset. The further you go under that the more likely to transfer. So that is the "safe" number. It's been said that he is normally gone at about 15-16. You are not required to start him in CT or other postseason.

I concur that you do not have to start him in the CT or post season. I do not think it matters by how much you miss the promise though, only that it is not met. (But I guess I could be wrong.) Also, while most players seem to use the 80% value, some demand 90% and I've had one player (and now I can't remember if it was starts or minutes) that was satisfied at 70%. 

I just kept a player that complained twice and never resolved his issue - he lost half of his 60-something WE - by starting him in 25 of 32 games (78%), though only 19 of 26 regular-season games (73%).  So there's definitely some uncertainty.

As for WE drop, though, in any situation where WE drops and never bounces back, there's a non-zero chance he'll bail.

Posted by cornfused on 9/13/2012 1:33:00 PM (view original):
As for WE drop, though, in any situation where WE drops and never bounces back, there's a non-zero chance he'll bail.

Is it any WE drop? I was under the impression that it was only the second drop to WE that triggered the danger of an end-of-season transfer. The first 1-2 point decrease being sort of the attention-getter to allow you to "fix" the situation, and then the additional 3-5 point drop a few days later when you get the nastier you're a liar/my folks won't be happy but I think I need to transfer/can't make promises I'll be here next season email.

As for the OP, no, there's no surefire way to know for certain the kid will/won't leave. I've been threatened with transfers lots, but never had a kid actually bail on me, including at least two bozos I was intentionally trying to provoke to empty their lockers and hit the bricks.

if you fix the situation after the first drop it will go back to where it was, so you are talking about the same thing with different language basically. 

Thanks. Good to know I'll at least get a warning shot and can decide on risk at that point. We'll be right on the border of NT this year in total wins (RPI should be fine) so trying to balance winning every winnable game by getting higher IQ guys on the floor more versus meeting promises/keeping player here for next year.
Only ever had 1 player transfer and that was at D1 and it involved an upper-classman who just wasn't any good (no promises were involved) so I couldn't meet his minutes expectations.

duke, one last bit of warning - if you skirt the line closely all season and near the end he falls below his threshold and you get a warning occasionally you won't have enough games left to raise him up, so keep an eye on that...