recruiting situation Topic

coach_billyg
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Posted by jjwarden on 9/22/2012 5:52:00 PM (view original):
Looks like I need to pull him down.... (I am a back-up option for now) I didn't realize that was still an issue at high D1.  So I guess I pull him down (as a B- school) with scouting reports and then go from there?  Anyone else seen this?  
um, i thought b- was the cutoff at which you did NOT have to pull down ANYONE, but it might have been the last prestige where it was possible you did. are you sure you have to pull him down? what is this based off of? keep in mind that if you are at the bottom of the prestige range who can talk to him, and he is already considering someone else, he is likely to refuse a good % of your visits. when i am in your case, i often send double the visits i want to stick. so if you just sent a couple and he rejected, it might just be luck. if you sent a **** ton and he rejected them all, well then, its probably not just luck :)
9/22/2012 7:33 PM
jjwarden
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I sent 4 HV and a scholarship early on.  The response I got back in the scholarship offer was "I will keep your offer in case my other options fall through."  I then sent 5 scouting visits and got back the same type of message.  "fallback option etc."  So, it looks like I need to pull him down with more scouting visits.  

FYI he rejected all of the 10 HV's I have sent.  So I have not lost money from those.  I guess I will try 8 or 10 scouting visits and see what happens.  

I might be crazy for betting the farm on this.  Hopefully it doesn't totally backfire!
9/22/2012 8:17 PM
coach_billyg
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it can be a lot tougher to pull someone down in any division, when another school is spending effort. ive put 50 scouting visits into players in d1 and not had them drop for me, when they were considering someone else. i guess b prestige is when you finally dont have to pull anyone down...

i would seriously consider your alternatives, and if you have some good ones, you might want to go that route. if you don't, well, you dont have much to lose anyway :) and when you say betting the farm... what is your plan here? how many openings you got? i mean, you shouldnt really spill it all here in case competitors are watching, but ill respond to a sitemail on the subject. in short, if you lose this player and take 2, 3 walkons, thats alright. 4 and you are really pushing it. ive done all in for 1 player before with 4 scholarships but i also can afford to walk a finer line than most, and probably am in better shape to know when im on the right side of the gamble. its just too dangerous for me to recommend to you any strategy where by losing a very loseable battle results in 4+ walkons.

i checked your resume... looks like 6 scholarships! you dont want the case where you lose a player to be taking 5 walkons. its just not worth it. i tell people they are too worried about losing battles and taking a walkon or two all the time... but 1-2 and 5 is a lot different! i would definitely consider your options. you should be picking up 4 players in this class. or 5, 5 would be fine too. and if you shoot for 4, and miss, and get 3 - not the end of the world, not by any means. but dont shoot to take 4 walkons and miss and take 5... not sure what your plan is for other players but i do know that after cycle 1&2, players rarely come cheap. so think about it...
9/22/2012 9:04 PM
jjwarden
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Just sent you a sitemail billy.   Thanks man!  Appreciate the help.
9/22/2012 9:40 PM
teamrc
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I don't see this as close to even. I totally disagree Billy
9/22/2012 9:53 PM
coach_billyg
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Posted by teamrc on 9/22/2012 9:53:00 PM (view original):
I don't see this as close to even. I totally disagree Billy
im sure plenty of people do! im curious though, what are you basing this opinion off of? how do you figure the advantage, and how did you come up with that estimation?
9/22/2012 10:14 PM
girt25
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Posted by teamrc on 9/22/2012 9:53:00 PM (view original):
I don't see this as close to even. I totally disagree Billy
It is not even -- I am sure of that. Billy, you and I are usually on the same wavelength, but you're off on this one.
9/23/2012 8:16 AM
jjwarden
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Well I abandoned the strategy when I realized I needed to pull down the recruit.  So unfortunately, we will never know what it would have taken to win the recruit.  I probably would have lost anyways!
9/23/2012 8:32 AM
teamrc
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maybe not.... you just never know how much the other guy is willing to spend.
Billy,
The reason I disagreed was I personally feel the difference between a B- and even an average A+ is (at least) double.... and probably more.
And the math then would be....if (B- x2 = A+)  then 2 HV = one CV... which I also disagree with as too low.... (I give more weight to both myself)
JJ's example was he was willing to spend his entire 100k on this guy.... and I am simply saying I believe the A+ team could have gotten him for somewhat less than 100k if he decided to spend that much on one guy.

9/23/2012 3:47 PM
gillispie
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Posted by girt25 on 9/23/2012 8:16:00 AM (view original):
Posted by teamrc on 9/22/2012 9:53:00 PM (view original):
I don't see this as close to even. I totally disagree Billy
It is not even -- I am sure of that. Billy, you and I are usually on the same wavelength, but you're off on this one.
do you disagree with the hc:cv ratio of 2:1 or the prestige estimate? im thinking you use a prestige value around 1.7-1.8, but im highly confident that is wrong. however, that simple difference really adds up over 5 partial grades, im guessing that is the source of our disagreement. i had the fortune of losing an a- d1 to a- d2 battle recently. although i would call myself highly confident before, it really cemented my opinion that there is no way prestige is really 1.7x. it really was about the best battle ive seen, ive had plenty of evidence in the past but the opportunity to observe prestige over that huge of a difference was a rare treat. but hey, you never know, i could be wrong.
9/23/2012 5:16 PM
gillispie
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Posted by teamrc on 9/23/2012 3:47:00 PM (view original):

maybe not.... you just never know how much the other guy is willing to spend.
Billy,
The reason I disagreed was I personally feel the difference between a B- and even an average A+ is (at least) double.... and probably more.
And the math then would be....if (B- x2 = A+)  then 2 HV = one CV... which I also disagree with as too low.... (I give more weight to both myself)
JJ's example was he was willing to spend his entire 100k on this guy.... and I am simply saying I believe the A+ team could have gotten him for somewhat less than 100k if he decided to spend that much on one guy.

i would agree with a doubleish estimate on the a+ to b- (it could be significantly higher, with a high a+). and i think that 2:1 HV:CV is pretty accurate. when you say you give more weight to both yourself, do you mean the prestige, and CV? or to HV and CV? a 2.5:1 HV:CV for example would make things worse for the close distance school. so im guessing thats what you are saying, just trying to clarify.

i think prestige and HV:CV are the two things that immediately come to mind as major metrics that the community can't seem to agree on. plenty of us are confident in our values, although i think a lot of people who are confident haven't studied it closely themselves, which is dangerous. but anyway, where does that leave the casual bystander? i think an approach like the one dac or kmason or whoever it was posted, where they said, look at the ranges and then do the calculations over the range, thats the smart thing to do. thats how i played it myself, until i figured the values close enough with high enough certainty to just use simple values. so if you look at it and go well i think HV:CV is between 2 and 2.5, calculate the battle (or potential battle) both ways. if you look at the range and are winning most of it, or losing most of it, you probably know what to do, and usually, thats going to be the case. same goes for prestige, that is probably your best bet.
9/23/2012 5:21 PM
coach_billyg
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i was looking for the post i referenced, and realized it was from a different thread. kmason posted it:

Since nobody actually knows the value of prestige, I tend to do a range of the costs and then decide. I know people used to feel a 1/3 letter grade at D1 was worth 33% but I think most people know that's nowhere near the case anymore, so I will do costs for 10%, 15%, and 20% and see if the player is worth the cost. Another factor at the high levels of D1 is how likely the player is to leave early. I don't want to spend 70k on a player that I think will most likely leave after 2 seasons. 
9/23/2012 5:37 PM
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