Prestige calculations overcorrected at D3 Topic

alblack56
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jack is right. 50% is way too high for the current season. I suggested to WIS that they reduce it to 30% to no avail
10/2/2012 7:27 AM
hughesjr
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Posted by alblack56 on 10/2/2012 7:27:00 AM (view original):
jack is right. 50% is way too high for the current season. I suggested to WIS that they reduce it to 30% to no avail
Absolutely 50% is too much and they should do something differently.
10/2/2012 9:46 AM
coach_billyg
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i thought they DID do something differently. didn't seble have this fairly lengthy post about prestige, how it was, and why he was changing it?

from the release notes, 6/26/12 - 
Changed the logic for determining a team's recent success as applies to prestige so that the weighting of the past 4 seasons will be spread out more evenly, placing less emphasis on the most recent season.


so, it seems to me, seble agreed 50% was too much, and changed it, and now its not 50% anymore. still, the examples listed do seem off, maybe you guys can send them in for seble to review.
10/2/2012 12:26 PM
coach_billyg
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Posted by alblack56 on 10/1/2012 1:01:00 PM (view original):
Here's how WIS explained prestige at D2 and D3 to me:

Current season is valued at 50%
Your current prestige level is valued at 50%.

Since your current prestige is an accumulation of previous seasons, each of those seasons is counted much less than 50%

Example:
Assume prestige is figured on the most recent 5 seasons.  Seasons #1-4, COMBINED, account for 50%. So they average at about 12%.

So, you have
Season #5   50%
Season #4   12%
Seasons#3   12%
Season #2   12%
Season #1   12%

See the problem?? The most recent season is worth 4 TIMES any of the others. That's why prestige can drop so quickly in one season
i dont think this was ever the model. i think the most recent season drop was not 50% to 12.5% and then an even grade. it might have been like, 50%, 25%, 15%, 10%, 5%, or something like that (i know thats 5% too much but still). i think the final drop off was actually decently significant so maybe it was more like 50%, 25%, 10%, 10%, 10%, never getting too low. but i definitely felt the 2nd most recent season had some extra weight. 

i do agree with the general premise, that having 50% on a single season is retarded..


10/2/2012 12:30 PM
alblack56
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From my ticket history:

6/27/12   Are the prestige changes for all divisions? or just D1?

6/28/12
seble- The prestige changes were just for DI

6/28/12
me- I was hoping they were for all divisions. Here's an example of the absurdity of your formula
 
AMHERST- was 28-2 and lost in the 1st round. They only played 4 teams in the top 150 and had an SOS of 341.  In the past 7 seasons, they were 59-131 and hadn't been in the NT in 26 years!! Their prestige went from C to B.

COLBEY-SAWYER- They were 25-6 and lost in the 2nd round. They hadn't made the NT in 51 seasons!!! (that's not a typo...51!!!)  Their prestige went from C to B

DREW- My team was 20-10 and lost in the 1st round. My prestige is a B, which seems about right.

 It's insulting to have these loser programs at the same prestige level as my team. The most recent season counts too much. Rather than 50%, it should be more like 30%.

6/28/12
seble- It's possible we'll review that logic in the future but we're comfortable with it right now.

6/29/12-
seble- It is what it is right now. I don't think there's a problem . You're the only person who has an issue with it.

On 9/24/ 12, after a 3-month break, I pointed out another example:

9/25/12-
Seble- We undestand that the prestige system isn't perfect, but it works as it's currently designed. We're no longer investigating specific situations
 

10/2/2012 2:16 PM
coach_billyg
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oh interesting. i wish seble would say things like that up front (that its d1). way to be confusing. i guess CS has to be good at SOMETHING, even if its something ******.  
10/2/2012 2:18 PM
Trentonjoe
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If I may offer a dissenting opinion.....


It's DIII!   Nobody knows who is good and who isn't.   For recruiting purposes, last years success SHOULD be weighed heavily.   Who cares about the success of St. Nobody and Her Sister?  Were you good last year?  If I am an 18 year old kid I am more impressed with 29-2 last season than, we made the tournament 9 years in a row as a 6 seed.

Before I started playing HD, I could probably name all of 5 DIII schools more than 100 miles from where I grew up.   Past success should count very little. What have you done for me lately, bro.


10/2/2012 2:47 PM (edited)
alblack56
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Posted by Trentonjoe on 10/2/2012 2:41:00 PM (view original):
If I may offer a dissenting opinion.....


It's DIII!   Nobody knows who is good and who isn't.   For recruiting purposes, last years success SHOULD be weighed heavily.   Who cares about the success of St. Nobody and Her Sister?  Were you good last year?  If I am an 18 year old kid I am more impressed with 29-2 last season than, we made the tournament 9 years in a row as a 6 seed.

Before I started playing HD, I could probably name all of 5 DIII schools more than 100 miles from where I grew up.   Past success should count very little. 


If you use the entire population of the USA as a reference, you're absolutely right.

But our DIII 'world' is, perhaps, 150 people. I certainly DO know who the top programs are.
10/2/2012 2:47 PM
dahsdebater
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I think you're missing his point.  Sure, you know who the top programs are.  But do the recruits?  Probably not.  They were still high school studs, even as D3 prospects.  They accept very late that they aren't D1 material for the most part, and they haven't put a whole lot of effort into studying which D3 programs will give them the best opportunities to play for national title caliber teams.  It's really not all that unreasonable to think that for many of these guys their research into programs wouldn't go much further than "what did they do in the last season or 2."
10/2/2012 3:32 PM
spasticity
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Yeah I think it's a very good point if we're talking about real life D3 basketball, but I don't see why it should work that way in our little fake world.  Who cares what the fake recruits may or may not be thinking, it's a computer sim.  I mean the game is called Hoops Dynasty after all, not Hoops Season. 

But I'd be curious to hear what WIS's thinking is for why D3 prestige should be more volatile than D1.  Maybe it's something along the lines of what was just said.

10/2/2012 3:56 PM
isack24
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It's not a good point even if we talk about real life.  In real life, there are not D3 athletic scholarships.  Success is pretty irrelevant when it comes to D3 recruiting, at least relative to D1.  Most kids who are recruited arent' following D3 national tournaments.  Hell, they probably don't even know which teams in the area are D3 until someone starts recruiting them. 
10/2/2012 4:13 PM
dahsdebater
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If you don't think the better D3 basketball players are hoping to make names for themselves and catch on with European teams or even NBA D-League teams (not saying it's realistic, just what they are thinking) you haven't talked to many D3 basketball players.  Just because they aren't on scholarships doesn't mean they don't still see themselves as athletes before students and potential professionals.  It may not be the most constructive line of thinking for D3 hoops players, and it's certainly not universal, but it's very widespread.
10/2/2012 4:55 PM
dahsdebater
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Also, you kinda made my point for me - they don't know the schools, which is exactly why history past the prior season or 2 is irrelevant.  They aren't going to know or care that the team was great 6 years ago.  But it's pretty easy to see that a team went 26-2 last year.
10/2/2012 4:56 PM
isack24
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Posted by dahsdebater on 10/2/2012 4:55:00 PM (view original):
If you don't think the better D3 basketball players are hoping to make names for themselves and catch on with European teams or even NBA D-League teams (not saying it's realistic, just what they are thinking) you haven't talked to many D3 basketball players.  Just because they aren't on scholarships doesn't mean they don't still see themselves as athletes before students and potential professionals.  It may not be the most constructive line of thinking for D3 hoops players, and it's certainly not universal, but it's very widespread.
There's basically nothing I hate more than the "if you don't agree with me, you must not know what you're talking about" argument.  It's a pointless fake argument.  I know plenty of D3 athletes (being a former college athlete myself) and I can promise you very few thought about playing professionally in Europe in making a decision where to play D3 basketball.  So no, I don't agree with just about anything you said, and no, that doesn't make you right.  The only thing I agree with is that they consider themselves athletes before students, but they definitely aren't thinking about professional athletic careers.

That said, I agree that it proves the point about long-term prestige at D3.  But the point is that it's not realistic; none of it is.  So would we rather look for realism or what makes the most sense for our simulated dynasty game.
10/2/2012 9:05 PM
hughesjr
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Posted by coach_billyg on 10/2/2012 2:18:00 PM (view original):
oh interesting. i wish seble would say things like that up front (that its d1). way to be confusing. i guess CS has to be good at SOMETHING, even if its something ******.  
It is in the devchat that the changes are only for Div-1 ... I posted it here in this thread.
10/3/2012 7:14 AM
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