ODL 59 Rosters/Commentary Topic

08-09 Wade + 96-97 Sam
13-14 Batum
02-03 KG + 02-03 Hill
14-15 Draymond
13-14 Drummond

Hoping 3 good defenders and 2 great rebounders with good passing from 4 positions should keep me out of the cellar. The scrubs will not be good at all.
1/25/2016 11:28 AM
06-07 Steve Nash 23% Usg 18.6 PPG 61.3 eFG% 89.9 FT% 38.7 AST%
89-90 Magic Johnson 24.8% Usg 22.3 PPG 52.6 eFG% 89 FT% 18.6 REB% 35.8 AST%
92-93 Horace Grant 16.7% Usg 13.2 PPG 50.8 eFG% 29.3 REB%
76-77 Caldwell Jones 11% Usg 6 PPG 50.7 eFG% 31.1 REB%
71-72 Wes Unseld 13.7% Usg 13.2 PPG 50.4 eFG% 38.9 REB%

88-89 Mark Price 21% Usg 18.9 PPG 57.2 eFG% 26.3 AST%
11-12 Kenneth Faried 18.8% Usg 10.1 PPG 58.6 eFG% 37 REB%
1/25/2016 1:29 PM (edited)
    Name Team Pos Usage% 2pt%# 3pt%# eFG% OReb% DReb% Ast% Stl% Blk%
    ?                       
    ?                      
    ?                      
    ?                      
     ?  Sea's Folly Pos   Usage% 2pt%#  3pt%#  EFG%  OReb%  DReb%  Ast%  Stl%  Blk% 
J.R. Smith 14-15 Knicks SG 19.3 46.0 38.2 52.5 1.6 9.7 12.4 1.8 0.6
Anderson Varejao 12-13 Cavaliers C 18.8 48.4 0.0 47.8 15.5 28.6 12.3 1.9 0.9
Patrick Ewing 89-90 Knicks C 29.4 54.9 25.3 55.1 8.1 21.0 6.6 1.0 5.5
Hassan Whiteside 14-15 Heat C 21.1 62.6 0.0 62.8 14.5 32.7 0.7 1.1 6.5
Clifford Ray 71-72 Bulls C 14.2 52.0 29.3 51.1 13.2 32.2 15.2 1.9 4.0
Chauncey Billups 07-08 Pistons PG 23.7 47.6 39.8 52.6 1.9 7.8 28.2 2.0 0.4
John Stockton 94-95 Jazz PG 18.9 57.6 44.7 60.7 2.5 7.8 42.9 3.1 0.5

Draft Rd.
    1.      PG - 94-95 Stockton Def 80. 42.9 ast%! 35mpg
    2.      SG - 07-08 Billups Def 70. good value for ODL. 31 mpg
    6.      SF - 14-15 J.R. Smith Def 51. Poor reb. great 3PA 27 mpg
    3.      PF - 71-72 Ray Def 61. 45.4 creb. 23 mpg
    4.      PF - 14-15 Whiteside Def 88. 47.2 creb. 14 mpg (thanks ben!)
    6.      PF - 12-13 Verajao Def 60. 44.1 creb. 11 mpg
    5.       C - 89-90 Ewing Def 88. U% 29.4 - efg% 55.1.  39 mpg


Should be in the playoff mix.  Wasn't expecting to use Patrick & his $9M but couldn't pass on him in the 5th.
1/25/2016 3:20 PM (edited)
I don't really care about an eval.  That said, it should be fairly obvious which version of what I'm using.  The only questionable one might be Bird, but there are really only two versions worth drafting for 1st round...
1/25/2016 4:06 PM
change of plans (planned my team around the wrong cap!):
81-82 Buse
08-09 Roy
14-15 Kawhi
14-15 Gobert
91-92 Robinson

bench:
73-74 Edge
14-15 Millsap

Defensively, this team is elite. defensive rating, blocks, and great steal numbers. Offensively, I think we might be better than we look.

It seems like most teams think they're going to make the playoffs. I always have some degree of doubt, but I'm actually pretty confident about this team. Curious to hear your take, dh.
1/26/2016 7:31 PM (edited)
I suspect you may be flirting with the individual penalty
1/25/2016 4:40 PM
me? isn't that the 10 usg pt rule? I definitely have 10....what do you mean?
1/25/2016 5:01 PM
they get you two ways - team and individual - you should be fine with the team penalty but:


".... you've got the team penalty & how to avoid it down, right? Just get 10+ usage points. But what about the individual possession penalty? How do you avoid that? That's where cumulative usage comes into play.

Think about what usage means (as defined earlier) a minute. If you have less than 100% usage on the floor, someone is going to end up with more possessions in the sim than the did IRL. That triggers the individual penalty. This occurs on a game by game basis, not the season total, so realize that at any point, sim randomness & outliers can and will screw you. To ensure that you will never hit the individual possession penalty, you would likely have to waste a great deal of salary by spending too much on usage, ending up with several players who won't get their RL possessions. But you can achieve a reasonable balance where it is unlikely that you will have too many players hit the individual possession penalty while not wasting too much of your salary on it." - from Ash's useful thread

https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?TopicID=445171&Page=1&TopicsTimeframe=180
1/25/2016 5:05 PM
ok....just calculated it

min USG at any time: 90.2
max Usg at any time: 113.7

starters at 101.9

should be fine
1/25/2016 5:07 PM
My final pick definitely has an impact on usage.
1/25/2016 5:10 PM
Posted by bds9992 on 1/25/2016 5:08:00 PM (view original):
ok....just calculated it

min USG at any time: 90.2
max Usg at any time: 113.7

starters at 101.9

should be fine
what's your attempts per minute look like? On uptempo setting you'll be putting up like 95-100+ attempts in any particular game - if in doing that any of your guys exceeds his real life touches by too much you'll get the bingo (and what sucks about that is by winning the possession battle you actually increase your attempts)
1/25/2016 5:54 PM
I have 6760 FGA's. I like having less than 7000. With Buse and Kawhi's combined Stl% of 7.4, I fully expect to win the possession battle.

honestly, it doesn't fully make sense to me. I appreciate you walking me through it
1/25/2016 6:09 PM
It's pretty detailed, so I can definitely understand it not making the fullest of sense.  The fga/min thing is not normalized, yet I am pretty sure that copernicus is right.  I hypothesize that this is due to the difficulty in getting high fta players close to their rl ftas, so they end up with about the same usage but the ratio of fgas is much higher, thus causing the shooting penalty...

...but it could be that wis just sucks at this aspect.  Either way, if you're running up-tempo with a SL of 101.9, expect some games to have ridiculously bad fg% & high turnovers just because of outliers creating the penalty.  You should end up between 7000 & 8000 fgas for the season, so if you're towards the lower end, you shouldn't hit too many bad cases.  If you're towards the high end, though, you might have to plow through a dozen games or more with the penalty.  Note that those dozen games aren't necessarily an L, though, as I guarantee you that you won't be alone.

1/25/2016 8:27 PM
I find that strange. I've had some successful teams with less than 7000 FGA's. It really does seem more relative, less cut-and-dried than you make it seem, although I'm sure they're solid guidelines. This team could fail, or not. If so, more experimentation.
1/25/2016 8:43 PM
Oh I run teams with around 5500 fgas all the time... in open leagues, where you get rookies that push that number towards 7k.  It's not very cut & dry at all.  The only way to be completely safe is to draft way more fgas than you would ever need while keeping your usage well above 100% on the floor at all times, but that would be a waste of salary.  Even then, outliers can and will occur.  It's a balancing act between many, many factors - not just one or two or a few - which is why the sim is beautiful.
1/25/2016 10:50 PM
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