I've missed the playoffs in the ODL with a team that had Lebron and Barkley and a team that started with Wilt and Stockton. So you'll have to forgive me for being pessimistic.

Posted by jhsukow on 4/8/2016 4:24:00 PM (view original):
I've missed the playoffs in the ODL with a team that had Lebron and Barkley and a team that started with Wilt and Stockton. So you'll have to forgive me for being pessimistic.

not a matter of intent. you have usage, assists, and rebounding guards. now all you need are tier 1 or 2 Usg pts bigs. most teams have already filled their forward slots, so you become one of the teams (along with mine) that can pick with ease. you'll see; whoever you're targeting in the 4th and 5th will be there.

Since i have so much time between picks, and I have nothing better to do- I'm doing a lot of testing in the SimMatchup.. The results are surprising me so far... I just simulated 100 games between 2 teams- 50 at home for each.. Using my 1st 3 picks on both teams- and 2 very different surrounding casts. One has 53 wins. The other 47.. I would have bet the results would have been reversed.. Which means I have a lot of thinking to do....

It would be fun to do a fantasy style live draft with 90 seconds to pick of the ODL or DH52. Fantasy being the key word there.

while I was just in the theaters watching Midnight Special, I had a thought.

anyone think Anthony Davis is going way too high right now? I don't really think he brings second round value to the table. If you go with 13-14, he's a solid defender/rebounder/shot blocker, but you could get 17 other guys in the 5th that do pretty much all of the same things. If you go with 14-15, his rebounding is pretty underwhelming and you have to play him at PF. Sure, the usage and clean games are nice, but I can think of 5 or 6 guys you could get in the 4th or 5th that are more well-rounded.

I took 15 Anthony Davis to the best record in the league a couple seasons ago (or second best, sly was right there). Took him 49th I think. Of all the 6 point usage guys with decent efg and decent defense (and he is better than decent at both), he is by far the cleanest player (least turnovers and fouls). I actually bashed him as a high second round pick in my Evals a couple years ago, but late second round, early third? He definitely belongs there.

i don't know. i would go with Camby or Mutombo or Chandler or _______ before AD, at least at that draft position or even in the 3rd. I just don't need him as a scorer, he's not good at passing, and you can do a lot better at rebounding.

Sure, if you need a scorer, AD can plug a hole, but I feel like Elton Brand has more minutes, better D, more scoring, and more rebounds as an SF. I would just get one of those super rebounders and wait until the 4th or 5th to get better efficiency, but I think it's too big a risk.

(alonzo, _______, hakeem, kg, mchale, webber, love, even marion as an SF. eight more guys who are more efficient and you can get them in the 2nd or lower.)

Depends how you describe efficient. Efficient scoring? Sure. Actual efficiency? a few of them, but not most. I would take 3 or 4 of the guys you mentioned over him, but definitely not 3 of them.

what do you mean by actual efficiency?

Well, turnovers and fouls certainly count towards how efficient a player is. And with players of high usage and good efg%, Anthony Davis is the most efficient in the sim as far as turnovers and fouls go. That closes the gap between a 53% efg guy and a 56% efg guy in my opinion. Definitely need to pair him with good rebounders and passers, and I don't think I would want him as my 2nd guy in a lot of cases. But he is a great third option, at least in my opinion.

i agree with that. if 14-15 could play SF, i'd be ok with it. if he posted a 7 Ast%, i'd be down, or maybe 2600+ minutes, but he's missing all three of those. in this draft, especially, when the good guards are usually gone by the third round, it makes it tough.

Posted by bds9992 on 4/8/2016 10:03:00 PM (view original):
i don't know. i would go with Camby or Mutombo or Chandler or _______ before AD, at least at that draft position or even in the 3rd. I just don't need him as a scorer, he's not good at passing, and you can do a lot better at rebounding.

Sure, if you need a scorer, AD can plug a hole, but I feel like Elton Brand has more minutes, better D, more scoring, and more rebounds as an SF. I would just get one of those super rebounders and wait until the 4th or 5th to get better efficiency, but I think it's too big a risk.

(alonzo, _______, hakeem, kg, mchale, webber, love, even marion as an SF. eight more guys who are more efficient and you can get them in the 2nd or lower.)

Elton Brand is a fairly good comparable to Anthony Davis at the moment (some of the others you mentioned are low usage players, which isn't really comparable).

I suspect this draft is the first of many in which Steph Curry is a top 5 pick. Why did Artis Gilmore fall to the 2nd round? I find it interesting that Penny Hardaway is picked higher now than a few years ago.

Posted by bds9992 on 4/8/2016 10:03:00 PM (view original):
i don't know. i would go with Camby or Mutombo or Chandler or _______ before AD, at least at that draft position or even in the 3rd. I just don't need him as a scorer, he's not good at passing, and you can do a lot better at rebounding.

Sure, if you need a scorer, AD can plug a hole, but I feel like Elton Brand has more minutes, better D, more scoring, and more rebounds as an SF. I would just get one of those super rebounders and wait until the 4th or 5th to get better efficiency, but I think it's too big a risk.

(alonzo, _______, hakeem, kg, mchale, webber, love, even marion as an SF. eight more guys who are more efficient and you can get them in the 2nd or lower.)

With seeing how this draft has gone and the type of players that are targeted, I would not have taken Davis where I did, but the reason I did was for options. We'll see how it ends up.

What really stings is before the Jcred/DH trade I thought about offering to swap 4th and 5ths...