ODL XXXVI Team composition and discussion Topic

appleseed1
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Here's a question.  You know 168 men, right?  Do you know 6 guys named Kevin?  'Cause there's 6 Kevins drafted already.  If you are a young parent, and you do not want to go through the trouble of paying for college, and you would like to live in a small mansion some day, I suggest naming your kid Kevin.
8/4/2011 9:15 AM
98average
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Are you in a room that has white padded walls?
8/4/2011 10:16 AM
scudmissle
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Kevin of Dongnalough... 1642 - in the Irish tongue, which means "He of Blessed Birth." He is the first person in history to be called Kevin. His childhood was marked by a horrible temper and dislike of other people, quenched only by his passion to bounce a ball.

truse story. maybe u'r on to something, apple

8/4/2011 11:01 AM (edited)
malone9975
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Posted by scudmissle on 8/4/2011 11:01:00 AM (view original):

Kevin of Dongnalough... 1642 - in the Irish tongue, which means "He of Blessed Birth." He is the first person in history to be called Kevin. His childhood was marked by a horrible temper and dislike of other people, quenched only by his passion to bounce a ball.

truse story. maybe u'r on to something, apple

I thought his name was Kevin of Donglongenough
8/4/2011 1:17 PM
jakotay
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8/4/2011 1:20 PM
robocoach
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Shows you how 3's distort things-

Calvin Natt would be a consistent ODL guy if he hit any threes, and probably mid rounds.
8/4/2011 3:25 PM
tarheel1991
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I know a lot of people consider threes to be overpowered in the SIM, and I think they are (from the standpoint that 3pt% seems to get the same boost from assists/uptempo/etc as 2pt%, meaning a correspondingly greater rise in efg%), but overall I think the value of the three in the SIM mirrors the value of the three in the modern NBA. If you look at successful teams in the last decade or so of the NBA, very few made fewer than 400 threes in a season, and a pretty significant number made many more than that (2010-11 Mavs - 645; 2011 Heat - 547, just for example). I really think it's more realistic, if we're comparing to the modern NBA, to think a team that makes 800 threes can win a title than to think a team that makes 200 can win a title. it's just a more efficient shot, and if you can't make it teams will shut you down inside.
8/4/2011 3:39 PM
tarheel1991
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that's not to say I thought robocoach was implying threes are overpowered - his post just inspired my thoughts.
8/4/2011 3:39 PM
robocoach
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I doubt you can win in the Sim or real life with much under 500 made three's anymore. They are a fact of basketball life now and a bad one.....almost makes me want to agree with Undercover Brother's observation about them.


As a consequence, we all load up on 3'w and early in the draft for the most part. But this does give the opportunity to grab some undervalued guys late, since they don't shoot any threes. Calvin Natt is one, Bobby Jones is another. And needing boards and more threes the Sim kept pointing an arrow to Jamison. (And a bunch of guys who went in rounds 1-2.)
8/4/2011 4:11 PM
tarheel1991
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there are still tons of great sources of threes out there. The goal in the first couple rounds is to get guys give you combinations of things you can't get later. Like...a low-foul, high-defense, board lord with low usage (Rodman, Wallace). Someone who literally does everything - usage, efficiency, defense, boards, assists (Bird, Lebron). Guys who are very efficient AND very high usage (Howard, Shaq, Mailman). Good guards with great rebounding (Magic, Kidd). The more multi-dimensional guys you get early, the fewer things you're looking for in late-round picks. So if you get threes as part of your package in the first couple rounds, you don't need to find them late. But if you don't get threes, you can still get one-dimensional shooters late as long as you've satisfied other needs.

Bottom line...take guys in the 1st two rounds, maybe even into the 3rd who do lots of things and/or things that only a few guys can do, without worrying about fit. After that, fill in guys who mesh well. Luckily, there are a hundred different ways to do it.
8/4/2011 4:28 PM
dh555
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Posted by tarheel1991 on 8/4/2011 3:39:00 PM (view original):
I know a lot of people consider threes to be overpowered in the SIM, and I think they are (from the standpoint that 3pt% seems to get the same boost from assists/uptempo/etc as 2pt%, meaning a correspondingly greater rise in efg%), but overall I think the value of the three in the SIM mirrors the value of the three in the modern NBA. If you look at successful teams in the last decade or so of the NBA, very few made fewer than 400 threes in a season, and a pretty significant number made many more than that (2010-11 Mavs - 645; 2011 Heat - 547, just for example). I really think it's more realistic, if we're comparing to the modern NBA, to think a team that makes 800 threes can win a title than to think a team that makes 200 can win a title. it's just a more efficient shot, and if you can't make it teams will shut you down inside.
amen
8/4/2011 10:07 PM
dh555
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Posted by tarheel1991 on 8/4/2011 4:28:00 PM (view original):
there are still tons of great sources of threes out there. The goal in the first couple rounds is to get guys give you combinations of things you can't get later. Like...a low-foul, high-defense, board lord with low usage (Rodman, Wallace). Someone who literally does everything - usage, efficiency, defense, boards, assists (Bird, Lebron). Guys who are very efficient AND very high usage (Howard, Shaq, Mailman). Good guards with great rebounding (Magic, Kidd). The more multi-dimensional guys you get early, the fewer things you're looking for in late-round picks. So if you get threes as part of your package in the first couple rounds, you don't need to find them late. But if you don't get threes, you can still get one-dimensional shooters late as long as you've satisfied other needs.

Bottom line...take guys in the 1st two rounds, maybe even into the 3rd who do lots of things and/or things that only a few guys can do, without worrying about fit. After that, fill in guys who mesh well. Luckily, there are a hundred different ways to do it.
amen again...preach on brother tarheel
8/4/2011 10:08 PM
robocoach
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I think I have a fundamentally different approach to building a team. I always aim for a harmoniously balanced whole while minimizing negatives as much as possible.

1.) There is no category I try to"kill", even rebounding. If I am even a little better in each category than league average, good enough. But I really want to be a little better in every category.

2.) I always try to minimize fouls\turnovers, and there I insist on being better than league average.


If I am slightly above average in every positive category, and better than average in negative categories, I believe I'll win 50 every time.



Some players like Nowitzki and Jamison are more attractive to me than most of the rest of you because they simply have no major negatives.
Some players like Olajuwon and yes, Barkley, are guys I will never touch because they just foul too damn much. (If I can take the liberty of mentioning a guy who isn't, and never will be, drafted: take a look at George McGinnis's negatives sometime.)


I Suspect : 1.) Usage is "hinky" in the Sim. 2.) Defense is close to useless- one 90+ defender ok, but I dont spend money just for defense.

I Absolutely believe: 1.) too many 80+ defenders will absolutely kill you in an ODL type league. They commit a certain number of "good" fouls, but our efg and FT% numbers are so jacked up beyond any real team that the fouls aren't "good" anymore, they just lose for you. 2.) Related, btw- our 3 point % is so far beyond real basketball for the sum of our teams that it really skews us all to the absolute necessity of having VERY good and abundant 3 point shooting to have a prayer to compete.



Oh well, let the argument carnage begin.
8/4/2011 10:43 PM
tarheel1991
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First, "harmoniously balanced whole while minimizing negatives" is what everyone should be aiming for - certainly what I'm trying to do. I don't think it's "fundamentally different" from most people. I love Nowitzki - I think most of us do. I love big men who don't foul (good ones are pretty rare). Jamison does have a significant negative, IMO - defense (more on that later).

Defense, you're selling short. It's absolutely not useless - if you don't have it, it can definitely hurt you. I don't think you can win a title without an 80+ big man and an 80+ guard - at least not very often. Take, for example, malone's team in the funk52 right now - he has a team with amazing rebounding numbers, incredible offensive efficiency, some of those great low-negatives guys you're talking about (Horace Grant, Kevin Love, Steve Nash not counting turnovers) but he's 36-32 and basically even in ppg - cause he just doesn't have much d. Solid team, not bad at all, but nowhere near championship caliber. In the playoffs, in these draft leagues, the teams are often very similar. Every little edge counts, and if you can't play D and the other team can, you better be significantly better offensively to make up for it.

Anyway, I think theoretically you could win a championship without a good defensive team - you'd just have to build an excellent offensive squad, one that can have a significant edge on every opponent to make up for the defensive difference. But I won this league last year starting 5 guys 80+ D, and only a couple low-minute backups under 50. I have no data to back it up, but somewhere in the area of under 50 or under 40 is where a guy can really get torched, IMO. So I try to have 80+ defenders that, between them, can cover all 5 positions (2-3 guys) and most or all of the rest of the squad 50+.

Also, I'm probably in the minority, but I don't even look at 3pt% at all. I agree we usually have great shooters as a whole, but you don't need guys who shoot 40+% from three. Lebron's 35% and below 3pt% is still very helpful. Mookie Blaylock is 43% from 2, 36% from three - but his efg% is excellent for a league at this salary. It's all about efg% (at least compared to fg% and 3fg% - ts% is a different story). I would rather have a guy who shoots 43%/36% than a guy who shoots 50%/40% if the first guy shoots a much higher% of threes and therefore has a higher efg%.

So, in sum, I think you have a perfectly fine system for team-building, I just think you're being a little too dismissive of some of the other approaches
8/4/2011 11:22 PM
robocoach
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Dismissive, no. I honestly have no idea how some people win, so I could hardly criticise their approach. My approach tries to heavily manage the negatives, as we all have a very narrow margin to exploit, and I think a lot of teams just miss that approach to winning the possession war.


But I stand by my observation that the Sim makes complete bs out of the defensive ratings. Last team I had in the playoffs had four 80+ defenders and got bounced in the second round because of the 40 fta's we kept giving the opponent. (Make matter more if the Sim let us play zone defenses, even situationally.) I believe the Sim is designed to function around a putative average for NBA teams,  and our teams exceed that offensive average by a couple of standard deviations, and too much defens can end up hurting you more than helping you.



Does possess have four "s's? How can this not have a spellchecker?
8/5/2011 12:51 AM
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