Experiment: STL vs High Potential w/High WE Topic

There are two types of recruits I'll battle for, STL and high WE with high ratings. These two types of recruits not only will make your team better, but it makes the game more fun to see what they'll turn into. When I say high WE I mean in the 70s. To find a high potential recruit with good core ratings and 70+ WE could arguably be as rare as the STL. But that's a debate for another thread.

So the question is: Between these two types of recruits who will end up the better player and by how much. For this study, I landed two Offensive Linemen. I redshirted both. One had 70WE and the other one was STL.  They are both will start every game of their career.

Here they are:

Joseph Banks - Sky's the Limit recruit
vs
Donald Burgess - Above average potential with 70WE


Recruited at:
Joseph Banks   30 4 63 58 45 51 54 28 14 40 28 31   46.34
Donald Burgess   40 22 43 70 45 60 48 18 21 32 31 22   47.04

RS Fr:
Joseph Banks   39 10 69 59 52 59 61 23 18 48 34 40   54.22
Donald Burgess   46 25 49 71 51 65 54 13 24 39 36 30   52.98

RS So:
Joseph Banks 111 48 16 75 79 60 67 69 19 23 56 42 50   62.51
Donald Burgess 111 53 29 56 94 57 71 61 9 27 47 42 39   59.92

RS Jr:
Joseph Banks 112 56 21 79 96 66 73 75 14 27 63 48 57   68.97
Donald Burgess 112 59 32 62 100 63 76 67 4 30 53 46 46   65.66

RS Sr:
Joseph Banks 113 64 27 84 100 73 79 80 10 31 70 53 65   75.18
Donald Burgess 113 65 35 67 100 68 80 72 1 33 59 51 53   70.73

3 games shy of the maximum games possible in the 5 seasons they ended up as:

Joseph Banks 113 69 30 87 100 77 83 84 6 34 74 57 70   79.39



Donald Burgess 113 69 37 71 100 72 83 76 1 35 63 54 58   74.47




Conclusion:

The STL was recruited at an overall lower rating:
At the start of the redshirt FR season they were -0.70 points apart at 46.34 vs 47.04.

After the redshirt season the STL was rated higher:
At the start of the FR season they were 1.24 points apart at 54.22 vs 52.98.
At the start of the SO season they were 2.59 points apart at 62.51 vs 59.92.
At the start of the JR season they were 3.31 points apart at 68.97 vs 65.66.
At the start of the SR season they were 4.45 points apart at 75.18 vs 70.73.
At the end of the SR season they were 4.92 points apart at 79.39 vs 74.47.

The STL recruit clearly had accelerated growth through his career. The STL player was a lower rated recruit and not all that high for an OL recruit at 46.34. According to GUESS he was the 43rd ranked OL recruit. His initial WE was high for a STL recruit at 58 which helped his cause. He finished his career just shy of 80 at 79.39 which is as high as I've had an OL in DIII and the #1 DIII player in Wilkinson that season.

The above avg potential/high WE recruit (WE started at 70) was recruited at a higher rating at 47.04 which ranked 30th for OL. He finished his career at 74.47 which is usually good enough for best DIII player.

They both started every collegiate game and with the same stamina settings. It's clear the STL player gained at a faster pace.

With everything that I've seen as a DIII coach, including this study, STL players are always worth redshirting and starting every single game of their career. They will end up a stud and it makes GD more fun when you have them.
8/19/2015 12:39 AM (edited)
I'll update at the start of the SO season once GUESS comes out.
5/13/2015 9:17 PM
My money's on Burgess the non STL with the 70 WE to start to end up the better player.
5/14/2015 3:16 AM
The STL player has a really high work ethic too. I just found my first 2 STL players in back to back recruiting periods AMD they were both QBs with relatively high work ethic (50ish). I'd be curious to see what happens if there was an STL player with low work ethic.

Its good data though Miami, thanks for sharing. I'm curious to see the final outcome come their senior season
5/14/2015 4:20 AM
Great stuff. Did Burgess have a 3 potential?
5/14/2015 11:09 AM
Even with the high WE, Burgess' growth should taper off during his junior season, while Banks will keep this same growth throughout his career. Given that Banks already has the edge in GUESS, he should stay in front from now on. Burgess isn't going to be a slouch, though, so enjoy it!
5/14/2015 3:34 PM
Posted by dukez21 on 5/14/2015 4:20:00 AM (view original):
The STL player has a really high work ethic too. I just found my first 2 STL players in back to back recruiting periods AMD they were both QBs with relatively high work ethic (50ish). I'd be curious to see what happens if there was an STL player with low work ethic.

Its good data though Miami, thanks for sharing. I'm curious to see the final outcome come their senior season
I had a STL RB several seasons ago with a WE-30. Ratings weren't very good initially but I RS'ed him and he started every game. The first couple of seasons were pretty standard improvement but his final 2 were substantially higher. He turned out being a solid starter those seasons. Don't remember the exact ratings but I do remember those final seasons were pretty big.
5/14/2015 7:33 PM
This guy for my Utah team is STL and has 68 WE. I RSed him for his FR season. I m very interested to see what he ends up as. I believe he will be an elite player. I got him for less than 8k. Go figure.

 Gridiron Dynasty - Football Sim Games - Player Profile: Samuel Blanchard
5/14/2015 8:07 PM
I have a stl qb at navy in warner who is about to start for his redshirt junior year. Low we like 30s so curious to see how he develops as the starter this next year and the next.
5/14/2015 8:08 PM
Posted by mojolad on 5/14/2015 3:16:00 AM (view original):
My money's on Burgess the non STL with the 70 WE to start to end up the better player.
Banks overtook him in his redshirt season. I thought Burgess would keep up a little bit better.
5/14/2015 10:25 PM
Posted by realist9900 on 5/14/2015 11:09:00 AM (view original):
Great stuff. Did Burgess have a 3 potential?
Burgess was above good potential and Banks was sky's the limit. I think 3 would be correct. That'll make Banks a 4.
5/14/2015 10:26 PM
Posted by dukez21 on 5/14/2015 4:20:00 AM (view original):
The STL player has a really high work ethic too. I just found my first 2 STL players in back to back recruiting periods AMD they were both QBs with relatively high work ethic (50ish). I'd be curious to see what happens if there was an STL player with low work ethic.

Its good data though Miami, thanks for sharing. I'm curious to see the final outcome come their senior season
A STL player with low WE will still be good, just needs to start as a FR to realize potential. The STL players with high WE are great. The growth is off the charts.
5/14/2015 10:29 PM
Posted by scrodz on 5/14/2015 3:34:00 PM (view original):
Even with the high WE, Burgess' growth should taper off during his junior season, while Banks will keep this same growth throughout his career. Given that Banks already has the edge in GUESS, he should stay in front from now on. Burgess isn't going to be a slouch, though, so enjoy it!
Yup. Banks is already ahead so the competition aspect is over. It'll still be interesting to see how a 70 WE recruit with good potential develops compared to a STL when they are both redshirted.
5/14/2015 10:31 PM
Posted by miami_jefe on 5/14/2015 10:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by dukez21 on 5/14/2015 4:20:00 AM (view original):
The STL player has a really high work ethic too. I just found my first 2 STL players in back to back recruiting periods AMD they were both QBs with relatively high work ethic (50ish). I'd be curious to see what happens if there was an STL player with low work ethic.

Its good data though Miami, thanks for sharing. I'm curious to see the final outcome come their senior season
A STL player with low WE will still be good, just needs to start as a FR to realize potential. The STL players with high WE are great. The growth is off the charts.
I just signed this guy in Wilkinson, and he is a STL RB so I guess I get to see just how a STL with low WE grows. I'm pretty excited to see how good he can be, he may be the best FR RB I've seen

http://whatifsports.com/gd/RecruitProfile/Ratings.aspx?rid=13850288&section=Ratings

RB William Griffin 50 82 47 27 54 35 19 24 32 21 46 43
5/17/2015 5:29 PM
Im gonna sound stupid for asking but what is a STL player?
5/17/2015 6:14 PM
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Experiment: STL vs High Potential w/High WE Topic

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