One last request, and I'm not sure if its even possible (but if it is, that would be awesome!)

Do you have a distribution of running distances?  So, set a counter for how many plays of <-4 yards, -3 to -1 yards, 0 yards, 1-3 yards, 4-10 yards, 11+ yards?

I wonder...

Is there any reason (aside from it just being easier) from a programming perspective why one would want to control rushing statistics with a meta-level modifier instead of tweaking the play-level mechanics to where the results organically produce the target rates?

Nope.  If my scenario is correct and this is how they chose to slow down the run game, then JConte took the easy route.  It is the equivalent of restrictor plate racing in Nascar.  Because a group of coaches figured out how to beat the game and a group of mediocre coaches did not like it and complained JConte decided to bring the best teams back to the pack.  I think it would have been cooler to introduce alternative ways to make your team great rather than dumb down the game so anyone can play it reasonably well and no one can play with excellence.

Posted by tommy_cian on 11/19/2010 7:04:00 AM (view original):
One last request, and I'm not sure if its even possible (but if it is, that would be awesome!)

Do you have a distribution of running distances?  So, set a counter for how many plays of <-4 yards, -3 to -1 yards, 0 yards, 1-3 yards, 4-10 yards, 11+ yards?

I wonder...

Sure.  This is for designed run plays in Yost on 11/18/10
Yds Gained : # of occurances
-3 : 128
-2 : 833
-1 : 1060
0 : 1336
1 : 2720
2 : 4653
3 : 2527
4 : 1423
5 : 1088
6 : 505
7 : 319
8 : 244
9 : 224
10 : 215
11 : 177
12 : 192
13 : 223
14 : 202
15 : 178
16 : 149
17 : 49
18 : 26
19 : 24
20 : 21
21 : 22
22 : 14
23 : 14
24 : 13
25 : 14
26 : 19
27 : 11
28 : 11
29 : 14
30 : 10
31 : 11
32 : 5
33 : 8
34 : 13
35 : 11
36 : 7
37 : 8
38 : 8
39 : 12
40 : 8
41 : 9
42 : 15
43 : 8
44 : 10
45 : 5
46 : 3
47 : 3
48 : 6
49 : 5
50 : 4
51 : 7
52 : 1
53 : 4
54 : 6
55 : 7
56 : 5
57 : 3
58 : 7
59 : 5
60 : 2
61 : 2
62 : 3
63 : 3
64 : 2
65 : 10
66 : 2
67 : 3
68 : 6
69 : 4
70 : 3
71 : 4
72 : 1
73 : 3
74 : 5
78 : 1
79 : 1
80 : 3
82 : 1
83 : 1
91 : 1
92 : 2
96 : 1
98 : 2

Here are some passing stats.  Again from yost 11/18/10

# of Passes	Human	Sim	Total
D-IA	2061.0	1272.0	3333.0
D-IAA	1391.0	2123.0	3514.0
D-II	2082.0	2051.0	4133.0
D-III	2782.0	3448.0	6230.0
All	8316.0	8894.0	17210.0

# of Pass Comp.	Human	Sim	Total
D-IA	1308.0	860.0	2168.0
D-IAA	894.0	1380.0	2274.0
D-II	1298.0	1294.0	2592.0
D-III	1679.0	2087.0	3766.0
All	5179.0	5621.0	10800.0

Pass Comp. %	Human	Sim	Total
D-IA	0.635	0.676	0.65
D-IAA	0.643	0.65	0.647
D-II	0.623	0.631	0.627
D-III	0.604	0.605	0.604
All	0.623	0.632	0.628

Total Pass Yards	Human	Sim	Total
D-IA	14089.0	9032.0	23121.0
D-IAA	10070.0	15249.0	25319.0
D-II	13969.0	13741.0	27710.0
D-III	17367.0	21096.0	38463.0
All	55495.0	59118.0	114613.0

This pass average is for completions only.

Pass Avg	Human	Sim	Total
D-IA	10.771	10.502	10.665
D-IAA	11.264	11.05	11.134
D-II	10.762	10.619	10.691
D-III	10.344	10.108	10.213
All	10.715	10.517	10.612

Run/Pass Ratio	Human	Sim	Total
D-IA	1.158	1.043	1.114
D-IAA	1.054	0.995	1.018
D-II	1.053	1.072	1.062
D-III	1.291	1.06	1.163
All	1.159	1.045	1.1

These are for completions only.  I'm surprised by all the short yardage passes.  Apparently everyones playing the screen now.
yds gained : # of occurrences
-4 : 11
-3 : 37
-2 : 99
-1 : 191
0 : 293
1 : 917
2 : 890
3 : 894
4 : 872
5 : 845
6 : 391
7 : 333
8 : 344
9 : 361
10 : 361
11 : 362
12 : 347
13 : 323
14 : 363
15 : 344
16 : 262
17 : 158
18 : 149
19 : 135
20 : 137
21 : 169
22 : 156
23 : 131
24 : 142
25 : 138
26 : 31
27 : 27
28 : 23
29 : 22
30 : 32
31 : 26
32 : 23
33 : 24
34 : 30
35 : 23
36 : 15
37 : 13
38 : 22
39 : 16
40 : 14
41 : 9
42 : 15
43 : 11
44 : 13
45 : 8
46 : 13
47 : 12
48 : 8
49 : 6
50 : 6
51 : 12
52 : 8
53 : 4
54 : 9
55 : 10
56 : 5
57 : 7
58 : 13
59 : 5
60 : 11
61 : 12
62 : 7
63 : 9
64 : 8
65 : 2
66 : 5
67 : 7
68 : 3
69 : 5
70 : 7
71 : 8
72 : 3
73 : 6
74 : 3
75 : 1
76 : 1
77 : 1
78 : 3
79 : 3
80 : 3
82 : 4
84 : 2
86 : 1
88 : 1
89 : 1
91 : 2
93 : 2
94 : 3
95 : 2
97 : 2
98 : 1
99 : 1

Thanks yatzr.  This is really interesting.

haha, I just noticed this on those pass yardage distributions.  Check out the # of occurrences for 1-5.  All pretty high and then it drops off for 0 and 6.  Then check out 6-15, all about the same.  Then 17-25...again all about the same (16 is pretty much inbetween 15 and 17).  I think what we're seeing here is different plays that almost always end up within a small range of yards

I just threw this into a bar graph.  They did the same thing to passing distribution that they did to running distribution.

Run Avg	Human	Sim	Total
D-IA	3.739	3.939	3.817

Like I said; they put a governor on running the ball.  It appears that they did it to the offense in general.  This was not the right way to level the field.   There are two factors at work here.  They put limits on offense to make games closer and then made formation IQ way too important.  Thus, closer games that are also being won by teams with lesser talent because they practice formations more.  It can't be both because that is not realistic.  Formation IQ can make up for a talent gap somewhat but no way it should have been combined with a game engine that limits the talent from scoring more as well.  WIS should have done one or the other.  Or less of each.  Overshot the mark, did they???

continued:  If they had just introduced formation IQ as an attribute and allowed for the recruitment of players that specialized in certain formations they could have skinned the "always run" cat very easily.  It would have opened up opportunities for other coaches to build great teams because there were more ways to do it.  I still say this new engine 'dumbed' it down too much and leveled the playing field for all without anyone having to put any effort into it.   Hence, a coin flip.

Posted by slid64er on 11/19/2010 1:20:00 PM (view original):
I just threw this into a bar graph.  They did the same thing to passing distribution that they did to running distribution.

Ok, slid64er, knowing this; have you a theory on how to move the ball?  I do not...yet

I don't know what all you math geniuses are so worried about -- they tested this thoroughly in-house and this is the intended behavior.

Posted by dravz on 11/19/2010 1:46:00 PM (view original):
I don't know what all you math geniuses are so worried about -- they tested this thoroughly in-house and this is the intended behavior.

Yup.  That's what makes it all the more depressing.

Do these programmers know anything about football???  Are they all in India?  It sounds like they took a poorly translated version of our suggestions, and interpreted using wikipedia's entry on college football!  

Posted by llad_lu76 on 11/19/2010 8:05:00 PM (view original):
Do these programmers know anything about football???  Are they all in India?  It sounds like they took a poorly translated version of our suggestions, and interpreted using wikipedia's entry on college football!  

Speaking of Wiki, have you read the entry for WhatIfSports?