Posted by travisg on 7/21/2010 1:28:00 PM (view original):
"As is, you go into a draft knowing that the 1st and supplemental are the only rounds that count."

I just spent an hour ranking players for my Mays team, which doesn't have a pick until the end of Round 2 (and after a lengthy supplemental round). I'll probably spend another half hour on it this afternoon, if I've got time. I'm reasonably sure I'll draft at least one player who'll make a ML roster one day.

"There is low incentive to rank a lot of players."

One reasonably certain MLer isn't the best return on my 1.5-hour investment, but I also gave up my first-round pick for a SP who's helping my team right now. But maybe I'll get a DITR out of one of my guys, or maybe someone will slip due to signing demands. You never know.

"Some owners argue that they don't have to spend much on scouting, because they can guess based on current ratings and get an ok 1st rounder."

You can make those reasonable guesses, it's true, but you need to invest in scouting to see more players, right?

Posted by strikeout26 on 7/21/2010 1:54:00 PM (view original):
I saw your examples. They make sense to your point. There very well could be a hidden development rating. Tim Beckham's a party boy because he parties alot, not because he is black. I played at Kennesaw state University. Tim Beckham spent alot of time in Cobb County because of the East Cobb baseball complex. I got to see him both on the field and off. One of the nicest guys I have ever met(brother's a jerk), but still loves to party.  

Posted by sanderbear on 7/21/2010 3:57:00 PM (view original):
Then you should do that now, so that you can get a decent 1st rounder and not much more.

Whatever. I think random busts make for a more realistic game. Some owners would benefit one year, other owners would benefit another year. Just like real life. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don't. As is, the draft is extremely predictable and of limited (albeit pretty consistent) value.

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/21/2010 4:02:00 PM (view original):
There's no reason to think one would get lucky in any year.  You could be unlucky every year.

Do we want the game determined on luck?  Isn't it more "fun" to make good decisions and win because of them?

Posted by travisg on 7/21/2010 4:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by sanderbear on 7/21/2010 3:57:00 PM (view original):
Then you should do that now, so that you can get a decent 1st rounder and not much more.

Whatever. I think random busts make for a more realistic game. Some owners would benefit one year, other owners would benefit another year. Just like real life. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don't. As is, the draft is extremely predictable and of limited (albeit pretty consistent) value.

The draft really isn't predictable at all, since talent pools vary from year to year, but it does offer a consistent value. I like knowing that I'll land at least one or two ML prospects every season.

In my scenario, odds would favor you still landing 1-2 major league prospects every season.

Posted by sanderbear on 7/21/2010 4:52:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/21/2010 4:02:00 PM (view original):
There's no reason to think one would get lucky in any year.  You could be unlucky every year.

Do we want the game determined on luck?  Isn't it more "fun" to make good decisions and win because of them?

Decisions to help win with new draft system:

1) spend money on scouting, to see more players
2) rank 200-250 players, rather than just 25 or 50.
3) spend money on training budget
4) make draft decisions in part on makeup, patience, temper, health, in part on gap between current and projected ratings
5) take the time to line up above-average minor-league coaches
6) make determinations, in seasons after a given draft, on who is a bust and who isn't.
7) consider dealing for other teams' busts, with the hope of having them improve with your franchise

The roulette analogy is bogus, unless you consider the real baseball draft to be roulette.

Posted by sanderbear on 7/21/2010 4:51:00 PM (view original):

Posted by travisg on 7/21/2010 4:13:00 PM (view original):

Posted by sanderbear on 7/21/2010 3:57:00 PM (view original):
Then you should do that now, so that you can get a decent 1st rounder and not much more.

Whatever. I think random busts make for a more realistic game. Some owners would benefit one year, other owners would benefit another year. Just like real life. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don't. As is, the draft is extremely predictable and of limited (albeit pretty consistent) value.

The draft really isn't predictable at all, since talent pools vary from year to year, but it does offer a consistent value. I like knowing that I'll land at least one or two ML prospects every season.

In my scenario, odds would favor you still landing 1-2 major league prospects every season.