A Sneak Peek at the upcoming draft class Topic

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shobob
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I like this suggestion
8/24/2010 2:52 PM
mitchrapp
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Bad. It used to be 4 days when you saw prospects, now it's 7. Now you want all season, even if the full ratings aren't what you want to see.. I don't like it.
8/24/2010 3:10 PM
AlCheez
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Bad idea - there's already enough of a disconnect between reality and HBD regarding how draft picks are viewed, I wouldn't want to aid it anymore.

And I really doubt draft depth seriously impacts free agency decisions in terms of to sign/not to sign in real life.

"This guy could really help us now, but next year's draft class is loaded, we MIGHT get a stud who could help us by 2015!" This isn't football/basketball - the baseball draft is such a crapshoot, and it rarely offers any kind short-term help.
8/24/2010 3:21 PM
whiskychaser
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Posted by mitchrapp on 8/24/2010 3:11:00 PM (view original):
Bad. It used to be 4 days when you saw prospects, now it's 7. Now you want all season, even if the full ratings aren't what you want to see.. I don't like it.
I don't want to see the actual prospects - just a rough grading of the draft class.
8/24/2010 3:56 PM
whiskychaser
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Posted by AlCheez on 8/24/2010 3:21:00 PM (view original):
Bad idea - there's already enough of a disconnect between reality and HBD regarding how draft picks are viewed, I wouldn't want to aid it anymore.

And I really doubt draft depth seriously impacts free agency decisions in terms of to sign/not to sign in real life.

"This guy could really help us now, but next year's draft class is loaded, we MIGHT get a stud who could help us by 2015!" This isn't football/basketball - the baseball draft is such a crapshoot, and it rarely offers any kind short-term help.
Ok as an example, it is December and I know that there are 15 really solid pitchers in next years draft that could transform my minor league system.  I have two guys leaving for FA that are Type A and have told me that they will entertain my offer prior to full FA.  Do I want 4 draft picks and the ability to possibly get 4 of the really good potential ML level pitchers or do I want to resign the 2 Type A guys?  I would guess that there is a budgeting decision that needs to be made before I set my salary budget vs. prospect budget. It has less to do with short-term help then it does long term franchise building.
8/24/2010 4:02 PM
mitchrapp
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This is HBD. Not sure there's a sure thing after the first round outside of defensive players. And I doubt people let a type A go just so they can get decent playerS that might help them in 3-4 years. Sort of what Al said.
8/24/2010 4:06 PM
whiskychaser
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Posted by mitchrapp on 8/24/2010 4:07:00 PM (view original):
This is HBD. Not sure there's a sure thing after the first round outside of defensive players. And I doubt people let a type A go just so they can get decent playerS that might help them in 3-4 years. Sort of what Al said.
I disagree with both of you.
8/24/2010 4:31 PM
AlCheez
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Your example is taking a very HBD-like view of drafting and prospects.   In real-life, they are called "prospects' for a reason. 

No MLB front office is going to be looking at 4 compensatory picks as anywhere near as valuable as 2 quality free agents.  The question will be are we trying to win now, if so, how much are we going to spend to win now, and do these guys fit into that plan at what we expect to have to pay them.
8/24/2010 5:04 PM
whiskychaser
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Posted by AlCheez on 8/24/2010 5:04:00 PM (view original):
Your example is taking a very HBD-like view of drafting and prospects.   In real-life, they are called "prospects' for a reason. 

No MLB front office is going to be looking at 4 compensatory picks as anywhere near as valuable as 2 quality free agents.  The question will be are we trying to win now, if so, how much are we going to spend to win now, and do these guys fit into that plan at what we expect to have to pay them.
I am pretty sure The Pirates have taken that strategy a couple of off seasons in the last 15 years.  The Marlins too.

And if the question is "are we trying to win now, if so, how much are we going to spend to win now, and do these guys fit into that plan at what we expect to have to pay them" wouldn't it be nice to make that financial decision based on a little more information - like how deep is this years draft?


8/25/2010 10:42 AM
AlCheez
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Yes, I'm sure the Marlins were fully prepared to meet AJ Burnett's contract demands but said, "Screw it, this draft is loaded, we'd rather have the picks." And when was the last time the Pirates had even one quality free agent to think about re-signing? And much of the time, teams are going to try to deal these guys before they get to free agency so they can get somewhat developed prospects, rather than the unknown of picks. These teams aren't saying "We'd rather have the picks", they are saying either they aren't trying to win now, or that they are, but player A doesn't fit into their budget.

Additional information is always "nice" - good for the game is another question. In general, I don't like the idea of having information on the quality of the draft before you actually have to decide how much to spend on scouting for it.
8/25/2010 11:18 AM
whiskychaser
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Posted by AlCheez on 8/25/2010 11:18:00 AM (view original):
Yes, I'm sure the Marlins were fully prepared to meet AJ Burnett's contract demands but said, "Screw it, this draft is loaded, we'd rather have the picks." And when was the last time the Pirates had even one quality free agent to think about re-signing? And much of the time, teams are going to try to deal these guys before they get to free agency so they can get somewhat developed prospects, rather than the unknown of picks. These teams aren't saying "We'd rather have the picks", they are saying either they aren't trying to win now, or that they are, but player A doesn't fit into their budget.

Additional information is always "nice" - good for the game is another question. In general, I don't like the idea of having information on the quality of the draft before you actually have to decide how much to spend on scouting for it.
How is this for a suggestion - Your scouting budget in Season 1 will provide information on the current year's draft as well as providing insight (a rating A B C D E) on Season 2's draft.  The accuracy of this rating is dependent on the total dollars spent on HS/Coll scouting.
8/25/2010 12:48 PM
tecwrg
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My problem with this proposal is the idea that advance knowledge of the quality (or lack of) of the upcoming draft class will influence decisions both at budget time and during the preseason (free agents).  Just seems that this can encourage some owners to punt the current season in terms of free agency and pour all the money they would normally spend on FA's into the prospect and scouting budgets.  Anything that encourages teams to not try to be competitive cannot be good for any world.

And the latest suggestion about getting a scouting report on the quality of next season's draft is just downright horrible.  If I see an "A" class coming next season, what incentive do I have to win more than 41 games (just barely above WIS's .250 winning percentage guideline) this season, so I can be first in line next season?

8/25/2010 1:10 PM
whiskychaser
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tec - yeah it could cause some tanking.  I am pretty sure that the people who are tanking for the draft are going to do it regardless of how deep the draft is next season.  I get what you are saying though - a-holes ruin it for everybody.  All I am concerned with is increasing realism and I believe that a look at next years draft would do that.  Too bad everyone is afraid of tankers.
8/25/2010 4:38 PM
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