I got it from the NY Times. Whether it's 2,58m or 2.1m doesn't really make much difference. Since the important part is the 400+k GOP members and 212k voters.

And what's your point?

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 9:21:00 AM (view original):

Posted by moy23 on 4/27/2016 7:23:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 4/27/2016 6:44:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Bernie10025 on 4/27/2016 12:43:00 AM (view original):
I just wanted to check in on this chatboard to see if the Hillary supporters are panicking yet. There's one national poll I saw today that's 46-43 Hillary -- gap is closing. GOP turnout is up 70%, Dems down 35%, and Paul Begala is "having nightmares about the enthusiasm gap."

And bad_luck, stop dancing. When was the last time a Pope issued a retraction because he was (counter)-attacked by a politician? He is, after all, apparently, God's representative on earth, etc.

Either way, you're substantively wrong about the issue at hand -- questioning the way Trump relates to other leaders -- because even in the past few days, mainstream European politicians have started making overtures. They see the writing on the wall, like everybody else. Pun intended.

"GOP turnout is up 70%, Dems down 35%, and Paul Begala is "having nightmares about the enthusiasm gap."".

Context is important. GOP turnout is high because of the clown show known as the Trump campaign, and the pro-Trump and anti-Trump voters getting out to vote. The lower Democratic turnout is likely because it's pretty clear who their nominee will be.

Says the guy who's been wrong about this entire election so far

You know who hasn't been wrong?

The polls.

And the polls show Clinton destroying Trump in a couple months. There's a reason I'm rooting for a Trump nomination.

Polls are wrong all the time. Go back and look at some of the early Primary results compared to "reputable' polls taken just days before. Every candidate still involved has had a few polling vs. result surprises.

Posted by tecwrg on 4/27/2016 11:19:00 AM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 10:05:00 AM (view original):
Turnout is actually way down. In Wisconsin a few weeks ago, something like 25% of eligible GOP voters turned out. It was around 9% for the states that voted last night. People don't like Trump and are staying home because of it.

Interesting. I just looked at the results from my town. The voter registration numbers are nearly a year old, but are probably still ballpark.

Republican voters turned out at around 55%.
Democratic voters turned out at around 60%.

The largest block of voters in my town are unaffiliated and were unable to vote in CT's closed primaries.

On the R side, Trump got 43.5%. Kasich got 42.3%.
On the D side, Clinton got 53.0%. Sanders got 46.0%.

FWIW, and it probably doesn't pertain to the Battle of BL vs Tec, I was only speaking of general Presidential elections. Because that's who would be voting in Hillary/Trump election.

TRUMP WON EVERY COUNTY IN EVERY STATE THAT VOTED LAST NIGHT. LANDSLIDE!!!

TRUMP HAD MANY MANY MORE VOTES THAN MITT DID LAST NIGHT AND MITT IS FROM THE NORTHEAST!!!!

Posted by tecwrg on 4/27/2016 12:49:00 PM (view original):
And what's your point?

Just that a relatively small percentage of people are actually voting for Trump. Which is why he can be winning individual GOP primaries with 50%+ of the vote and still look like a sure loser in November.

Posted by all3 on 4/27/2016 12:57:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 9:21:00 AM (view original):

Posted by moy23 on 4/27/2016 7:23:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 4/27/2016 6:44:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Bernie10025 on 4/27/2016 12:43:00 AM (view original):
I just wanted to check in on this chatboard to see if the Hillary supporters are panicking yet. There's one national poll I saw today that's 46-43 Hillary -- gap is closing. GOP turnout is up 70%, Dems down 35%, and Paul Begala is "having nightmares about the enthusiasm gap."

And bad_luck, stop dancing. When was the last time a Pope issued a retraction because he was (counter)-attacked by a politician? He is, after all, apparently, God's representative on earth, etc.

Either way, you're substantively wrong about the issue at hand -- questioning the way Trump relates to other leaders -- because even in the past few days, mainstream European politicians have started making overtures. They see the writing on the wall, like everybody else. Pun intended.

"GOP turnout is up 70%, Dems down 35%, and Paul Begala is "having nightmares about the enthusiasm gap."".

Context is important. GOP turnout is high because of the clown show known as the Trump campaign, and the pro-Trump and anti-Trump voters getting out to vote. The lower Democratic turnout is likely because it's pretty clear who their nominee will be.

Says the guy who's been wrong about this entire election so far

You know who hasn't been wrong?

The polls.

And the polls show Clinton destroying Trump in a couple months. There's a reason I'm rooting for a Trump nomination.

Polls are wrong all the time. Go back and look at some of the early Primary results compared to "reputable' polls taken just days before. Every candidate still involved has had a few polling vs. result surprises.

Individual polls get things wrong all the time, but weighted averages are usually pretty indicative. They have been almost perfect on the GOP side and I think only Michigan surprised on the Dem side.

So, according to Mr. Tecwrg:

For Hillary, the Democratic turnout is low because the Democratic nomination has already been settled.

For Trump, the Republican turnout has been high because the Republican nomination *hasn't* been settled(?), and because he's a showman. Of course, there's also the fact that some of Trump's strongest showings have been in traditionally Democratic areas, and across the board he's won overwhelmingly in primaries where registered Democrats are allowed to switch over and vote for a Republican. But of course, these are "just details."

We can discuss context all you want, but there IS an enthusiasm gap. It's obvious. At least 40% of the people who are voting for Hillary don't like or trust her. There was a prominent (tone-deaf) editorial in the Washington Post about that recently. (Jill Abramson I believe)

Both candidates have relatively high unfavorability ratings, but Trump's have decreased and Hillary's have increased.

The new national poll yesterday that was 46-43 is far closer than any previous poll of a Trump-Hillary matchup.

It's very hard for one party to hang on to the Presidency for 12 years (or more). If I were a Hilary supporter, I would be getting uncomfortable. I don't think I'd still be talking about how much I want Trump to get the nomination. Sounds like false bravado.

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 1:39:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tecwrg on 4/27/2016 12:49:00 PM (view original):
And what's your point?

Just that a relatively small percentage of people are actually voting for Trump. Which is why he can be winning individual GOP primaries with 50%+ of the vote and still look like a sure loser in November.

Data compiled since the New York GOP primary shows that billionaire Donald Trump’s popular vote total in 2016 in states that have voted so far significantly exceeds the vote totals that Mitt Romney, the 2012 nominee, had in those states in total.

All in all, in the contests that have been had so far in 2016, Trump towers over Romney—having won more than 2 million more votes in the 2016 GOP primaries.

I mean, if Romney is your benchmark...

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 1:53:00 PM (view original):
I mean, if Romney is your benchmark...

It's also been a 17 person race... Keep that in mind.

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 1:53:00 PM (view original):
I mean, if Romney is your benchmark...

Nice try, but no. This goes beyond Romney actually.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/twelve-thirty-seven/2016/04/donald-trump-popular-vote-record-222510?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+quicksnailsfeed+%28quicksnailsfeed%29#ixzz470kv1udt

I guess Trump needs people to make excuses to keep hope alive. I'm right there with you, I want Trump to get the nomination. He might do it, the odds are better now than ever. But if he drops the ball in Indiana and doesn't get to 1237, the GOP will bone him out of the nomination.

Posted by bad_luck on 4/27/2016 1:53:00 PM (view original):
I mean, if Romney is your benchmark...

With his five blowout wins Tuesday night, Donald Trump has passed Mitt Romney’s popular vote total from four years ago and is on a trajectory that could land him more Republican votes than any presidential candidate in modern history – by a lot.

Trump surged to more than 10 million votes, according to totals that include Tuesday’s preliminary results across the Northeast. That’s already about 250,000 more than Romney earned in the entire 2012 primary season and 153,000 more than John McCain earned in 2008.

More significantly, Trump is positioned to easily pass the modern record-holder, George W. Bush, who collected 10.8 million votes in 2000.

That presents an uncomfortable reality for anti-Trump forces: they’re attempting to thwart the candidate who is likely to win more Republican primary votes than any GOP contender in at least the last 36 years, and maybe ever.