In March those same polls had Cruz dominating Trump head to head. Trump proved them wrong. Crooked Hillary will get schlonged.

What polls?

The Atlantic/PRRI	3/30 - 4/3	676 RV	37	31	23	Trump +6
IBD/TIPP	3/28 - 4/2	388 RV	38	31	19	Trump +7
McClatchy/Marist	3/29 - 3/31	444 RV	40	35	20	Trump +5
Pew Research	3/17 - 3/27	834 RV	41	32	20	Trump +9
PPP (D)	3/24 - 3/26	505 LV	42	32	22	Trump +10
FOX News	3/20 - 3/22	388 LV	41	38	17	Trump +3
Bloomberg	3/19 - 3/22	366 LV	40	31	25	Trump +9
Monmouth	3/17 - 3/20	353 RV	41	29	18	Trump +12
CNN/ORC	3/17 - 3/20	397 RV	47	31	17	Trump +16
CBS News/NY Times	3/17 - 3/20	362 LV	46	26	20	Trump +20
Quinnipiac	3/16 - 3/21	652 RV	43	29	16	Trump +14
Rasmussen Reports	3/16 - 3/17	719 LV	43	28	21	Trump +15
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	3/3 - 3/6	397 LV	30	27	22	Trump +3
ABC News/Wash Post	3/3 - 3/6	RV	34	25	13	Trump +9

The polls haven't been wrong yet. No reason to think they are suddenly wrong now.

Clinton's plan is in full effect: get Trump the nomination, coast into the White House in a landslide.

Looks like Trump is gonna win. Me and all my Cruz supporting buddies are voting for Trump now.

Trump in the Whitehouse is gonna be awesome.

Posted by bad_luck on 5/2/2016 2:39:00 PM (view original):
The polls haven't been wrong yet. No reason to think they are suddenly wrong now.

Clinton's plan is in full effect: get Trump the nomination, coast into the White House in a landslide.

You haven't been right yet. No reason to think you are suddenly right now.

Trump will beat Clinton, like he beat Cruz, like he beat Bush, like he beat a dozen other Repubs.

Posted by all3 on 5/2/2016 5:23:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 5/2/2016 2:39:00 PM (view original):
The polls haven't been wrong yet. No reason to think they are suddenly wrong now.

Clinton's plan is in full effect: get Trump the nomination, coast into the White House in a landslide.

You haven't been right yet. No reason to think you are suddenly right now.

Trump will beat Clinton, like he beat Cruz, like he beat Bush, like he beat a dozen other Repubs.

Sure, I was wrong. I didn't think Trump had a chance of getting the nomination. No way the GOP would neuter itself like that. But the primary polls have had Trump out in front since last summer. And he's essentially won the nomination. Short of a rules change, he's going to be the nominee.

And then he'll get smoked by Clinton in November.

I find it very hard to understand how people have some much electoral confidence in Hillary Clinton. The gap between her and Trump is already closing. Also, at least 40% of her "supporters" don't like or trust her. Might that not suggest that they won't vote, or could be swung to vote for another candidate?... Remember what David Axelrod said about her? She can fire all the staff members she wants, but the problem is the candidate herself.

I don't like Clinton at all. She's a terrible candidate that would get blown out in a normal year. But people hate Trump (and Cruz) even more. Since the general election is a zero sum game, Trump won't be able to beat her. Too many people hate him.

you gotta be kidding

Posted by bad_luck on 5/2/2016 5:54:00 PM (view original):
I don't like Clinton at all. She's a terrible candidate that would get blown out in a normal year. But people hate Trump (and Cruz) even more. Since the general election is a zero sum game, Trump won't be able to beat her. Too many people hate him.

George W. Bush won two elections by turning out his base. Donald Trump has a far wider appeal than Bush when he ran. You're banking on people voting for Clinton just because they detest Trump. If voting behavior worked that way, Bush should have been crushed in 2004.

No, Trump has a very narrow appeal. He will not win. It will not be close.

Posted by bad_luck on 5/2/2016 6:20:00 PM (view original):
No, Trump has a very narrow appeal. He will not win. It will not be close.

I think that's wishful thinking and naive
(A) because of the Republican and Democratic primary turnout data
(B) because of Trump's performance specifically in Republican primaries where voters registered with other parties have had the option of voting for Trump
(C) because Trump's disapproval ratings have dropped, while Hillary Clinton's have increased
and
(D) because it's still early -- we're in the primary stage. Carter was way ahead of Reagan (a greater disparity than here) at this point in the 1980 election. And I think it's highly likely that Trump will swing to the center (as do most candidates) if/when he gets the nomination. Also, Hillary Clinton can "swing" wherever she wants and it won't change the way she's viewed. She's essentially static.

Posted by bad_luck on 5/2/2016 2:36:00 PM (view original):
What polls?

The Atlantic/PRRI	3/30 - 4/3	676 RV	37	31	23	Trump +6
IBD/TIPP	3/28 - 4/2	388 RV	38	31	19	Trump +7
McClatchy/Marist	3/29 - 3/31	444 RV	40	35	20	Trump +5
Pew Research	3/17 - 3/27	834 RV	41	32	20	Trump +9
PPP (D)	3/24 - 3/26	505 LV	42	32	22	Trump +10
FOX News	3/20 - 3/22	388 LV	41	38	17	Trump +3
Bloomberg	3/19 - 3/22	366 LV	40	31	25	Trump +9
Monmouth	3/17 - 3/20	353 RV	41	29	18	Trump +12
CNN/ORC	3/17 - 3/20	397 RV	47	31	17	Trump +16
CBS News/NY Times	3/17 - 3/20	362 LV	46	26	20	Trump +20
Quinnipiac	3/16 - 3/21	652 RV	43	29	16	Trump +14
Rasmussen Reports	3/16 - 3/17	719 LV	43	28	21	Trump +15
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	3/3 - 3/6	397 LV	30	27	22	Trump +3
ABC News/Wash Post	3/3 - 3/6	RV	34	25	13	Trump +9

Thirty-four percent of registered Republican and GOP-leaning independent voters say they want Trump to win the GOP nomination in a new ABC News/Washington Post survey.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) follows at 25 percent, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) at 18 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 13 percent in the national poll, representing increases of 4, 7 and 11 points in the survey since January, respectively.

But in hypothetical one-on-one match-ups with Cruz and Rubio, Trump loses. Cruz leads Trump 54 to 41 percent, and Rubio leads the outspoken businessman 51 to 45 percent.

Donald Trump is leading Ted Cruz by a whopping 34 percentage points — 54%-20% — among likely Republican voters in California, a SurveyUSA poll for KUSA found

Victory!!!!!