Posted by pjfoster13 on 1/24/2014 10:33:00 AM (view original):
So the uptopian goal of your starting rotation would be to have every single pitcher throw a complete game shutout/ CG quality start in every single outing. (If you had one guy with superhuman durability then you'd only need a 1-man rotation, but it's not 1890 so we know that goal isn't possible.) Generally the best order of a rotation is to have them go in descending order of ability (re: statistical effectiveness).

Since it is obviously not realistic for SP pitchers to pitch 100% of innings based on stamina and ineffectiveness, let's assume that your staff ace could go 9 every game. This gives your entire bullpen a day of rest. Then, the next best case scenario would be to have your #2 starter pitch 8 quality innings and use your next best (relief) pitcher as a 1-inning closer (when the game is close. If the game is not close, whether winning or losing, you can have anybody- your worst guy, whoever- come in for 3 outs because those outs are meaningless outs). The next best case scenario would be to have your 3rd starter pitch 7 quality innings, have your 2nd-best reliever pitch a quality 8th inning, and have your best reliever pitch a quality 9th inning. If your 4th-starter can only go 6 quality, have your third best reliever pitch the 7th, your 2nd best pitch the 8th, your best pitch the 9th.

I'm sure you are noticing the trend here. In this scenario, your starters go as far as possible and then turn it over to bullpen. Your closer (ALWAYS YOUR BEST RELIEVER) makes the most appearances and makes them in as crucial of a situation as possible. Your 2nd-best reliever (set-up-A) makes the 2nd most appearances and makes them in the 2nd-most crucial situations as possible. And etc etc.

If you are asking me why my way is right, the answer is, "Math." If you are asking me why your answer is wrong, the answer is also, "Math." I'm explaining the concepts to you in words and not numbers.

"In pj's perfect world, in which blackjack game theory can be applied to baseball, Mariano Rivera's best season would be one in which he sits in the 'pen the entire season and never has to make an appearance." Correct. In the utopian world, their new Japanese guy would be superhuman and pitch 2000 innings and go 162-0. That goal is always the goal regardless of its attainability. That math is always the right math whether it's realistic or not.

I don't know why this is making all of your heads explode. Maybe y'all should stop trolling with your one-line gang-ups and actually think about it.

Posted by pjfoster13 on 1/24/2014 10:38:00 AM (view original):
....Never did I say that your closer should be your 6th best pitcher.  It is implied that your 5-best pitchers would all be starters, and also implied that your 6th-best pitcher would be your closer. The best reliever should be the closer, according to math.

Posted by pjfoster13 on 1/24/2014 10:57:00 AM (view original):
Thanks for the update burnsy, you're real pleasant.

Runs are harder to come by in the later innings because your opportunity to score is lower because you have fewer chances, which makes them more valuable in the general sense of things.  But there are situations where higher leverage situations occur in earlier innings, and using your best reliever should be done.  It would also be better to go through the 3/4/5 hitters in the 8th inning with your best reliever rather than holding him for the lesser hitters in the bottom of the lineup as those are the guys most likely to score.  Since we cannot control these elements, it is best in HBD to maximize the amount of innings for your top relievers, because 120 innings is better than 60 innings no matter what the Leverage Index states.  They should do a better job of game management in real life.

Posted by pjfoster13 on 1/24/2014 10:56:00 AM (view original):
"as your closer in HBD will make significantly less appearances in the closer role than he would the setup A role."

If this is indeed true, then it is duly noted. I will pay more attention to how the SIM's logic uses the suA, and I can study the SIM to try to find the best way to configure the settings. It doesn't necessarily feel intuitive, you know?