Posted by pjfoster13 on 7/23/2015 9:25:00 PM (view original):
Lewis Parrish gives up HR because batters are taking his 73 P1 with 83 control to the yard on a consistent basis

He's got a total of one bad rating. He gives up a God-awful 1.4 HR/9, in a park that supresses HR no less. Surely just a coincidence that his one bad rating is GB/FB,

Posted by pjfoster13 on 7/23/2015 9:31:00 PM (view original):
Wilkin Soriano gives up HR because 55 control and sub-50 P3 and P4, that control rating doesn't just mean he misses in the dirt, he's missing over the plate also. Tater city

"he's missing over the plate also."

On what is that theory based? All we have is the WIS definition of Control, which is "how successful a pitcher is at locating his pitches." The simplest understand of that is whether pitches are in or out of the strike zone. What reason do you have to state with certainty that low Control — generally meaning ability to throw strikes — can lead to "bad" strikes? I've never seen anything in any WIS guide or developer's chat remotely indicating that Control includes meatballs down the middle. If you're not just guessing at that, where does the information come from?

"Missing over the plate" would seem to relate to quality of pitch (P1-P2 etc.) rather than Control. I say seem to because we don't know. Just like we don't know (or even have any concrete reason to think) that weak Control inflates HRs. We do know that higher GB/FB pitchers, in general, give up more homers. That's based on numbers.

Interestingly, Soriano has almost exactly the same HR/9 as Parrish. Despite being a worse overall pitcher. Might Soriano have some rating, at least one relevant rating, that's better. What could that better rating possibly be?

Nice response, Wayne. You can believe whatever you want and that's your choice, but this time you're wrong and it's ok to admit that. 

gbfb contributes positively to ERA because it is a double play rating, and double plays are good, just like I said 10 posts ago. However, on its own gb/fb contributes Zero to slugging or Hr rate. 

I still don't know why you keep saying "quit equating HBD to MLB." I'm not, that's the whole point! In real-life logic, gb/fb is an EVENT whether it goes for an out or a hit, but HBD land does not follow that same logic. You are supporting my argument whilst simultaneously calling me a dumbass. Learn to read, man

Posted by joshkvt on 7/23/2015 10:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by pjfoster13 on 7/23/2015 9:25:00 PM (view original):
Lewis Parrish gives up HR because batters are taking his 73 P1 with 83 control to the yard on a consistent basis

He's got a total of one bad rating. He gives up a God-awful 1.4 HR/9, in a park that supresses HR no less. Surely just a coincidence that his one bad rating is GB/FB,

His two "bad" rating are P1 and P2 (although I am willing to subscribe to the theory that the engine "rearranges" P2 and P3 based on whichever value is higher). Think of pitch values like how range contributes to +/- plays. There are "league averages" for pitches, but the site does not publish those like it does for fielding, the pitch calibration is hidden. 73 is subpar for P1 in a similar fashion like how 73 is subpar for 2B range. 

Posted by joshkvt on 7/23/2015 10:43:00 PM (view original):

Posted by pjfoster13 on 7/23/2015 9:31:00 PM (view original):
Wilkin Soriano gives up HR because 55 control and sub-50 P3 and P4, that control rating doesn't just mean he misses in the dirt, he's missing over the plate also. Tater city

"he's missing over the plate also."

On what is that theory based? All we have is the WIS definition of Control, which is "how successful a pitcher is at locating his pitches." The simplest understand of that is whether pitches are in or out of the strike zone. What reason do you have to state with certainty that low Control — generally meaning ability to throw strikes — can lead to "bad" strikes? I've never seen anything in any WIS guide or developer's chat remotely indicating that Control includes meatballs down the middle. If you're not just guessing at that, where does the information come from?

"Missing over the plate" would seem to relate to quality of pitch (P1-P2 etc.) rather than Control. I say seem to because we don't know. Just like we don't know (or even have any concrete reason to think) that weak Control inflates HRs. We do know that higher GB/FB pitchers, in general, give up more homers. That's based on numbers.

That does not imply that "mistake pitches" have anything to do with control, let alone that the mistake is or can be missing over the plate. Mistake pitches could just as easily (or based on their definitions more likely) be driven by vL/vR, or P1-P2... Or they could not come from anything at all programmed into the game and just be one of many examples of descriptive fluff to give the game some character. Mistake pitches could be hanging curves, changeups that are telegraphed, sliders that don't slide, a fastball that slips and hits 84 mph instead of 92 ...

You're assuming that mistake means location. That's a huge assumption, and a bigger leap to state definitively that it equates to homers in any way. Poor location is one of many possible mistakes, and that's if the programmers even went down the complicated and uneccessary path of defining mistakes beyond missing the strike zone. There's absolutely nothing, zero, to imply that "missing over the plate" is programmed into the game. It is possible that missing over the plate is programmed in. It's also possible it is not. To assume that not locating pitches well is the mistake programmers intend Eye to take advantage of and then to tie that to home runs is connecting a few dots in an exceedingly abritrary trail.

If your post had said "Most/many believe GB/FB drives home runs but I think that's wrong" that would be one thing. But to state it as proven fact, essentially telling a newbie to ignore what most players think is a crucial rating, is irresponsible unless it's based on a whole lot more than a supposed implication. "It's possible that GB/FB doesn't drive home runs" and "GB/FB doesn't drive home runs" are two very different statements. You are saying you know that GB/FB does not drive homers based on your inference, which might be accurate but appears to be contradicted by experience and data.

my eyes opened when I used to have this player: Ted Sheehan. We can't see his historical ratings anymore, but when I had him in the previous season, his control was about 85, his vL was 52, his vR was about 75, his pitchers were approx 85-65, and his gb/fb was 99 

Anyway, Simmy brought him into the 9th inning once in a 2-0 game, and he went gb out, gb out, back to back to back HR for the BS - L. I was real annoyed that my groundball monster would ever be subject to that scenario, Esp because the final HR was by Santiago Sanches, I was under the impression that my pitcher's gbfb should overpower Sanches' 49 power. That's when pimpbotlove chimed in that I (and all of you, apparently) was under the wrong impression of how gbfb functions, and that Sanches is an animal against guys like Sheehan because of 95 vR, 89 eye, 82 contact. I was under the impression that 99 gbfb should always win vs 49 power, like it would be in real life. IRL, gbfb is event-based, not outcome-based. In HBD land, gbfb is outcome-based only. 

99 gbfb has nothing to do with season or career home run rates whatsoever:
 Abraham Booker, Melky Quixote, Pascual Duran,  P.J. Valentin, Trevor King,  Vic Benitez, Abraham Bird, Aaron Lewis,  Frank Hammond, Matt Gonzales all have 90+ gbfb
Geraldo Aramboles, Abdul Cuddyer, Horacio Sierra, Pat Rhodes, Cla Nippert, Henderson Riggs, Calvin Hong,  Henderson Sirotka, Greg Newson,  Yordano Uribe, Anthony Trammell all have 35 or less. 

Curious how the guy with 7 gb/fb (Aramboles) has three similar seasons of about 18 HR in 140 IP with half of his time spent in a +HR ballpark, while Gonzalez has three similar seasons with Omaha/Portland (each are drastically minus in HR), about 25-30 HR per 210 IP. Oh gee, Aramboles has splits and control and Gonzalez doesn't, what a shocker. Look at the entire group and you will notice that each of their slugging-%-against have absolutely no correlation to which gbfb group they are in. There is no significant difference in the overall HR rates of either of these groups, inter-group or intra-group. Study the ratings, study the stats, make some scatterplots if you're so inclined, expose yourself to a larger sample size if you want, the consistency of the pattern is visible to the naked eye.

Go into as many random other leagues as you want and see for yourself. This rating's VALUE has nothing to do with slugging % or HR %, and doesn't even have value with gb/fb rate itself because when no one is on base, there is no theoretical difference in value between a strikeout, groundout, or flyout. However, the situation changes dramatically with runners on base, and therefore gbfb's inherent value relates exclusively to double plays aka getting in-and-out of jams by eliminating those pesky baserunners and facing fewer plate appearances with runners on base overall. My Texas team and my Toronto team play in hitters parks, and I observe that because my OAV/OBP/SLUG are all inherently higher, my strategy is to minimize my opponents' plate appearances by "un-doing" their hits and walks so those extra GIDP really pay off. On the other hand, my Seattle team and my San Fran team play in pitchers' parks and it's still good to have but not as much of a priority because teams have a much harder time punishing me with 2-run/3-run/GS HR or bases-clearing doubles in those parks.

Just for fun, I go to league leaders page and sort by ML, pitching, extended, GIDP. Here are your top 10 in GIDP volume. Draw your own conclusions:
Paul Brow (31), Eduardo Torres (29), Deven Martin (29), Melky Quixote (28), Moises James (27), Jordan Jordan (26), Trevor Lewis (26), Pedro Espinosa (25),  Hardball Aaron Lewis (25), Jin Ho Uehara (24). Notice any common denominators here? Anyone? Anyone?

In my opinion the only outliers in gb/fb are Trevor Lewis and Espinosa, and those two make the list because their inclusion is based on volume rather than rate:  IP is 200+ for each, and opp OBP is .350 for each, thus they both have the heaviest volume of runners on first base. Melky makes the list despite a miniscule .267 opp OBP because he threw 285 IP.... lol at .267 obp by the way, it's too bad pitchers aren't eligible for MVP on HBD, because that's one of the most dominant seasons a pitcher could possibly have BUT I digress

Anyway, a_ersberg, now you know!  joshkvt (with all due respect) and mike (with no due respect), you are each still welcome to draw your own conclusions

Yes, use the data you can see, not some retarded theory by a retard, and draw your own conclusions. 

My guess is your conclusion will be that GB rating and HRA are connected.

FWIW, and admittedly a small sample size:

There were 25 pitchers in MG who pitched 180+ IP while playing in a HR neutral (0,0) home park in the recently concluded season (S36).  The relationship between GB/FB rating and actual GB/FB results appears to be strong (as one would expect), while the relationship between GB/FB rating and HRA seems to be all over the place.

Team	Season	Pitcher	GB/FB Rating	IP	HRA	HR/9	GB/FB Stat
CHA	36	Benito Espinosa	7	195.7	25	1.15	0.66
VC	36	Miguel Mendoza	39	234.0	36	1.38	1.02
SYR	36	Wayne Felsen	43	189.3	26	1.24	0.94
SYR	36	Hipolito Paz	44	197.0	25	1.14	1.15
VC	36	Edgard Quintero	51	211.3	28	1.19	1.00
CHA	36	Humberto Baerga	54	203.3	34	1.50	1.07
ANA	36	Orlando Vargas	55	192.3	29	1.36	0.97
ANA	36	Joel Guerra	58	187.7	27	1.29	1.28
LR	36	Johnnie Davis	60	240.3	17	0.64	1.08
CHA	36	Albert Howard	70	187.0	29	1.40	1.29
LR	36	Ryan Charleston	71	237.3	21	0.80	1.27
VC	36	Wally Romero	71	247.7	27	0.98	1.22
ANA	36	George Rhodes	72	224.0	34	1.37	1.25
ANA	36	Carlos Abreu	73	198.0	28	1.27	1.22
ANA	36	Stevie Guerrier	73	196.7	19	0.87	1.40
MC	36	Hector Jose	75	227.3	28	1.11	1.24
TRE	36	Fausto Ortiz	75	194.0	24	1.11	1.35
VC	36	Carl Taylor	79	182.3	28	1.38	1.50
TRE	36	Pablo Lee	81	200.0	20	0.90	1.19
NY1	36	Diego Martinez	82	207.0	26	1.13	1.50
CHA	36	Sadie Gil	83	234.3	31	1.19	1.44
JAX	36	Rob Rose	83	207.7	20	0.87	1.39
MC	36	Quinton Forest	89	193.3	37	1.72	1.90
JAX	36	Fritz Thompson	91	182.3	25	1.23	1.75
MC	36	Perry McFeely	98	188.7	29	1.38	2.17

Quality of pitchers.   And, as you know, all those innings weren't thrown in 0,0 parks.

My pitchers at home(0,0)

	IP	HRA	WHP	ERA	HR9	GB
Javy Gutierrez	73.2	14	1.47	4.52	1.72	77
Horacio Canseco	83	12	1.36	4.34	1.30	44
Rafael Arias	53	7	1.08	3.40	1.19	32
Carlos Herrera	68	8	1.10	2.65	1.06	75
Diego Martinez	107.1	12	1.22	3.02	1.01	82
Andres Melendez	88.2	9	1.26	3.45	0.92	83
Carter Payton	54.2	5	0.99	2.14	0.83	71

Obviously a small sample size but Arias is the one that jumps out.   2nd best WHIP, 3rd worst HRA, GB of 32.

Same pitchers, home park data only for IP and HRA:

 

Team	Season	Pitcher	GB/FB Rating	IP	HRA	HR/9	GB/FB Stat
CHA	36	Benito Espinosa	7	99.7	12	1.08	0.66
VC	36	Miguel Mendoza	39	106.7	12	1.01	1.02
SYR	36	Wayne Felsen	43	99.0	15	1.36	0.94
SYR	36	Hipolito Paz	44	110.0	9	0.74	1.15
VC	36	Edgard Quintero	51	115.0	16	1.25	1.00
CHA	36	Humberto Baerga	54	107.0	12	1.01	1.07
ANA	36	Orlando Vargas	55	107.3	13	1.09	0.97
ANA	36	Joel Guerra	58	86.0	17	1.78	1.28
LR	36	Johnnie Davis	60	126.3	9	0.64	1.08
CHA	36	Albert Howard	70	95.7	14	1.32	1.29
LR	36	Ryan Charleston	71	118.0	10	0.76	1.27
VC	36	Wally Romero	71	131.0	11	0.76	1.22
ANA	36	George Rhodes	72	105.0	15	1.29	1.25
ANA	36	Carlos Abreu	73	94.3	15	1.43	1.22
ANA	36	Stevie Guerrier	73	120.0	13	0.98	1.40
MC	36	Hector Jose	75	121.7	14	1.04	1.24
TRE	36	Fausto Ortiz	75	97.3	13	1.20	1.35
VC	36	Carl Taylor	79	87.0	13	1.34	1.50
TRE	36	Pablo Lee	81	97.0	9	0.84	1.19
NY1	36	Diego Martinez	82	107.3	12	1.01	1.50
CHA	36	Sadie Gil	83	125.0	16	1.15	1.44
JAX	36	Rob Rose	83	112.3	11	0.88	1.39
MC	36	Quinton Forest	89	98.0	22	2.02	1.90
JAX	36	Fritz Thompson	91	83.7	11	1.18	1.75
MC	36	Perry McFeely	98	112.0	17	1.37	2.17

Gutierrez and Canseco also prove something.   Two worst pitchers, two worst HRA but with a huge difference in GB with JG being an awful pitcher and giving up tons of homers.

Posted by MikeT23 on 7/24/2015 9:11:00 AM (view original):
Quality of pitchers.   And, as you know, all those innings weren't thrown in 0,0 parks.

Quality of pitchers, yes.  I think that's what others are arguing.  GB/FB rating has a much less, if not zero, impact on HRA as opposed to other ratings such as splits, control, pitches, etc.