Posted by tecwrg on 7/24/2015 9:25:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 7/24/2015 9:11:00 AM (view original):
Quality of pitchers.   And, as you know, all those innings weren't thrown in 0,0 parks.
Quality of pitchers, yes.  I think that's what others are arguing.  GB/FB rating has a much less, if not zero, impact on HRA as opposed to other ratings such as splits, control, pitches, etc.
I'm assuming you saw my post with my pitchers.    Arias and his 32 GB, his 1.08 WHIP and his high HRA rate. 

It's not an accident. 
7/24/2015 9:27 AM
You can't just look at one guy, 53 IP, which may be a small sample size statistical outlier, and say "SEE!!  THAT'S INDISPUTABLE PROOF!!!"
7/24/2015 9:36 AM
No, of course not.   But it's an observation over 150 seasons.    Similar pitchers will produce similar results, wrt WHIP, but the lower GB guy will have a higher HRA and ERA.    It happens far too often to be coincidence.

I didn't read all of pjf's rambling but I think he referred to the algorithm.  I believe, in the midst of his nonsense, he said the algorithm determines "hit or out" first.   I agree with that.   Then it determines what type of hit or out.   That's where GB comes into play. 
7/24/2015 9:44 AM (edited)
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Rafael Arias is a good example.    He's been solid his entire career.  But his 1.26 HRA rate has kept him out of the starting rotation.    His WHIP/ERA just didn't match up.    IIRC, I acquire Arias and Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Robert Olson the same season.    I thought they were very similar.   But Olson produced better numbers consistently.   Simply because he gave up less homers per 9.   GB 81.
7/24/2015 9:54 AM
Posted by pjfoster13 on 7/23/2015 1:32:00 PM (view original):
Posted by a_ersberg on 7/22/2015 9:13:00 PM (view original):
16 gf/fb, he's a HR machine anyways  ;)
gb/fb defines ground ball outs rather than ground ball events. I think of gb/fb like a double-play rating. low gb/fb pitchers technically face more batters because they have to get the outs one at a time, and will theoretically give up a higher volume of HR, but it's not because of gb/fb itself ...

there are plenty of examples of 95+ gb/fb who have league average HR rates and other examples of 16 gb/fb who have above-average HR rates. Hr rate relates more to command (pitches + control) and splits, and year-over-year variance relates to the fluctuations in the quality of batters the pitcher faces. 
I only have 11 seasons in so maybe I should stay clear of this debate, but looking at career HR allowed leaders in 6 different leagues all beyond season 30, I only saw one pitcher who at his prime had an 80+ GB/FB rating (81).  There were a few in the 70's but the vast majority were in the 20-50 range. 

That quick scan leads me to believe that it is related and not just caused by less double plays.
As the fatigue rating is based on pitch count throwing a double play wouldn't get you facing less batters (unless you throw a lot of complete games) and in fact not getting the double play might get you pulled earlier based on your performance thus making you see less batters. So I'm not totally following that particular argument.

Anyways, just my $.02... not really worth much more than that lol
7/24/2015 12:12 PM (edited)
I think youve pretty well got it. You found a trend with outliers.

The average HBD team appears to get just under 1 DP per game. An extreme GB P might have an average of 1.5/game, or 18 additional DPs over 35 starts. The extra DP are nice but hardly a statistical force. The logical assumption that GB/FB influences double plays doesn't prevent it from also affecting HR, which in turn also doesn't prevent splits, control and pitches from also affecting HR.
7/24/2015 12:58 PM
Two reasonably similar pitchers who've spent their entire careers with me.
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Will Mahoney
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Jimmy Powell

Powell is obviously better but his HR/9 is .87 with 60sih GB.     Mahoney is 1.10 with 30ish GB.

As I said earlier, this holds true time and time again. 
7/24/2015 1:52 PM

I found 3 sets without really looking.   Players who played for me only, had somewhat similar control, splits, pitches with big differences in GB.   All of the lower GB pitches had a substantially higher HR9 rate.    It's just a fact.

7/24/2015 2:00 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 7/24/2015 1:52:00 PM (view original):
Two reasonably similar pitchers who've spent their entire careers with me.
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Will Mahoney
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Jimmy Powell

Powell is obviously better but his HR/9 is .87 with 60sih GB.     Mahoney is 1.10 with 30ish GB.

As I said earlier, this holds true time and time again. 
Mahoney and Powell's GIDP results and actual GBFB stats also correlate as you'd expect. I think it's pretty clear that the algorithm chooses Hit or Out first and that GBFB influences both what kind of hit (less HR for high GB/FB) and what kind of out (more DP for high GB/FH). An extra .5 out per game from the DP aspect is not nearly as valuable as the depressed HR results which are probably in the range of 0.3 to 0.5 ERA in moderate different players from the examples I've been looking at (yes, I got a little obsessed with this argument).
7/24/2015 2:24 PM
Yes, that's what I argued around 9:40 this morning.   I have no issue with anyone claiming the algorith determines hit/out first.  Maybe BB/HBP are part of the "hit" portion or maybe that's also part of the initial equation.   Hell, it may determine ball in play/not in play first.   I don't know.   But, once the ball is struck, GB plays a part.   Groundballs do not leave the park.   So, in any world with any algorithm under any circumstance, the more groundballs a pitcher gets, the less homers he will give up.   If that holds true, and only an idiot would argue that's not the case, it stands to reason that more flyballs result in more HRA. 
7/24/2015 2:45 PM
So if it chooses hit or out first, then putting a high range infield in when you GB pitcher is pitching is no more effective than when your FB pitcher is pitching?
I would think that they would want to bring positional defense factors into play and this would be more easily accomplished, I would think, by taking all of these factors into play, including GB/FB prior to determining if it's a hit or an out.  I have noticed an era/oba drop in my pitchers when I put a solid defense behind them that goes beyond +/- plays.

7/24/2015 2:53 PM
Bumped a thread about +/- plays and the effect is seems to have on a pitching staff. 

As for +/- plays in the algorithm, I imagine they play a part after either hit/out or BiP/NBip are picked.   If it determines hit, a + play wipes that off the board.  If it determines out, a - play takes that out off the board.  
7/24/2015 3:01 PM
In Sim, I believe the process first determines whether there's a K or BB, then determines hit/out, first checking for possible HR and then determining what kind of hit (single, double, triple). At that point, range is checked and in x # of plays changes the hit to an out, reduces an XBH to a single, or turns an out into a hit via error or poor play. There are differences between Sim and HBD obviously, but it probably works similarly with additional steps to factor in the additional hitter/pitcher ratings. That (and logic) would make range less important behind a high K and/or low Control P; IF defense more important for a high GB/FB P; and OF defense more important for a low GB/FB P. Logically, GB/FB would come between the K/BB check in concert with the HR determination, and would play a role in determining the type of hit/out. Range would kick in after that.

Years ago support provided the decision tree for Sim, but I don't recall ever seeing that for HBD. Given development by the same people, or off the same original engine, it's more likely to be similar where that makes sense. But the above theory is conjecture, not fact.
7/24/2015 3:07 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 7/24/2015 3:01:00 PM (view original):
Bumped a thread about +/- plays and the effect is seems to have on a pitching staff. 

As for +/- plays in the algorithm, I imagine they play a part after either hit/out or BiP/NBip are picked.   If it determines hit, a + play wipes that off the board.  If it determines out, a - play takes that out off the board.  
+/- can also affect what kind of hit, correct? As in turning a double into a triple or single.
7/24/2015 3:09 PM
Yes. 
7/24/2015 3:10 PM
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