Posted by joshkvt on 8/27/2015 10:31:00 PM (view original):
It's hard to say with any confidence what the effects of the update will be long-term. Post-signing currents seem to be farther below pre-draft projections, but we're 6 months away from even beginning to have an idea how development might have changed. What we know from the old system — players rarely/never surpass projections, players develop until a certain age or for a certain number of seasons, etc. — may or may not still be true, or may just be less consistent.
As for snagging a top IFA:
1) Have to have high scouting — Right. WIS eliminated the strategy of putting $2M in IFA and going all-out for the 1 or 2 stars you were still likely to see.
2) Hope a good IFA comes along — Has a season ever been completed without a good IFA coming along? They will still come along, but to see then, or know it when you see them, now you have to have money in scouting instead of knowing from a glance at their demands. As it should be.
3) Hope you see accurate projections — Anecdotaly it seems $10M-$14M doesn't give a good projection. We could only be hearing about it when Currents are disappointing and not hearing when they're what was expected. It's too soon to say. If enough people get up to $18M-$20M for a few seasons, we'll have a better idea where the projections start to get more accurate.
4) Hope you have the highest bid — This is better than pre-update when with 5 minutes of research you could sometimes assure yourself of having the highest bid. If you have high enough scouting, you now have a better chance at winning a player you value since half the competition is seeing garbage for projections and can't use demands as a sign to bid a guy up.
5) Hope he doesn't get injured — Isn't this always the case with any player of value?
It appears that WIS has effectively slammed the door on 3 or 4 loopholes/exploits just with IFA. That's a pretty solid improvement.
2) There may still be one or two good IFA's per year but you may not see them. We had a guy in Reily who turned down a bunch of defensive bench guys and SUA pitchers who kept saying 'my starting pitcher is coming'. Season is just about over and a stud SP comes along. First legit over $20 mill IFA all year. We all go 'there you go (blank)'. He never saw him. $30 million of IFA budget gone to waste. This isn't new with the update but still 1 of 5 that needs to hit to get a stud IFA.
4) it will be interesting to see if anyone starts doing 'piggyback scouting'. Bid the 50k, if you hold the bid after a day, withdraw your offer, if you get beat out, up your bid to a million, then 5 then 10 then 20. If at anytime before 20 million you hold the bid for a full day, withdraw the offer....... Come to think of it, I may try this.
5) what I mean by this is, my $20 million IFA sees All-Star Sanchez as a stud SS. I sign him for $31 million. Yay me! His current ratings look great, except his durability which is 49 and his health which is 28. Before the 'unanounced update' 28 health would have been a blessing (regardless of if you saw it ahead of time). Overplay the bugger, break his arm, put him on the 60 day DL and watch the ratings soar. Now a lot of users are reporting a $20 million medical with 60 day DL isn't even getting their player back to their pre-injury stats. That makes Low health ratings a much bigger handicap.
8/27/2015 11:05 PM (edited)