Posted by schuyler101 on 6/20/2010 2:40:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 6/20/2010 8:35:00 AM (view original):
Later in the season can result in a demotion hit.  I believe the discussion has centered around holding players back for 20 games to start the season for three consecutive years.

This isn't MLB.   So MLB WAR numbers mean nothing.

I won't attempt to explain my thinking very throughly(because I really don't like the way people calculate games below/above .500) but a 10-10 becomes 15-5 with five additional wins in those 20 games and a 5-15 team with 5 additional losses in those 20 games.  It's a 10 game difference.    A couple of players in HBD can make that difference.  And, to be clear, 10 of those 20 are against divisional opponents.   As  I said, I hope my divisionmates do this every year.

All that said, it does seem like a simple fix that should be done.

The discussion has never centered on holding back players for 3 consecutive seasons, pay attention.  Its 3 times, every other season, for 5 years (year 1, 3 and 5)

The numbers in HBD and MLB are similar (in certain seasons HBD can have more inflated numbers) but they are the same game (you know, baseball) so MLB WAR numbers are a good instructional baseline

A couple of players (and to be clear here we're talking 3, not an entire starting lineup) can change a team that would have been 15-5 into a 5-15 team over the first 20 games of the season?  You're really gonna keep beating this drum?  That is idiotic. 

For 3 players to swing a team by 10 wins (and it's 10, no one cares for voodoo math that you won't explain) they would have to each be valued at 3.3 wins above a replacement (WAR) player (we're assuming the guys replacing them are easily available replacement level guys) over the course of 20 games.  That is 25.4 WAR for an entire season, per player!!

I know you don't believe MLB WAR numbers apply here but for a frame of reference here are the single season record holders for WAR in pitching and batting

Hitting
14.7 WAR - Babe Ruth - 1923 -.393 AVG, .545 OBP, .764 SLG, 1.309 OPS, 239 OPS+

Pitching (and this one is good)
19.8 WAR - Old Hoss Radbourn - 1884 - 59-12, 1.38 ERA (league average ERA was 4.95), 678 IP, .92 WHIP, 207 ERA+

in 1884 Radbourn was worth about 3.5 wins per 20 games (they played less games).

before you say oh that was a different time and we can't compare, thats what ERA+ and OPS+ are for, they contextualize numbers for stadium and offensive environment.

You can calculate WAR for your solid HBD leagues and I can 100% guarantee you won't find any players who have put up a 24 WAR for a single season. 

To get a pitcher worth  3.3 wins over 20 games you'd need someone like Radbourn who is throwing 678 Innings a year, sorry.

How many games do you rest position players?   Almost all need at least some rest, the minor league assignment can function as that.

Oh and those millions saved gaming arbitration?  They can be used to go get top free agents to make up for ANY wins lost over these 20 games, guaranteed.



 

Posted by MikeT23 on 6/20/2010 4:42:00 PM (view original):
I refuse to read long-winded posts because, 98% of the time, the poster is simply repeating himself.  I'm not wasting my time.

Are you comparing promotions/salary manipulation in HBD to activities like rape/murder?   That's kinda dumb.

How is it different?   We're changing the result of 5 games in both examples.

10-10.  5 wins instead of 5 losses = 15-5   5 losses instead of 5 wins = 5-15.
0-0.  5 wins instead of 5 losses = 5-0  5 losses instead of 5 wins = 0-5.