Identical ratings, different results Topic

jimmystick
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I have two pitchers who are nearly identical in ratings.  I believe it would be a reach to find two pitchers who are more alike in all of HBD, let alone two pitchers in the same world, let alone two pitchers on the same TEAM.

[URL=http://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2254029]Alex Sullivan[/URL] has been solid, but broke out this year with a great season and I believe he will win the Cy Young in my league.

[URL=http://www.whatifsports.com/hbd/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1977557]Quilvio Guardado[/URL] was signed with high expectations but has gotten progressively worse each season.  

I play in Tampa (slight pitcher's park) and my personal expectations for these guys would probably be ~3.25 ERA, no higher than 1.30 WHIP, and no higher than a .235 OAV.  I think their walk/strikeout ratios are about what I expect.

Are my expectations unrealistic?  
6/23/2010 10:29 PM
dedelman
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I think your expectations are very slighty unrealistic-- I'd peg them both at about 3.60 in TB in the AL-- but I have no clue why their performance is different and I would not expect the difference to continue going forward.
6/23/2010 10:50 PM
tecwrg
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Random statistical variation, at least for current season results. 

Prior seasons . . . they played in different ballparks.  Didn't check, but maybe they played in different leagues, so it wouldn't be stats accumulated against common opponents.
6/23/2010 10:57 PM
iain
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You're aware that even an entire season isn't a statistically meaningful number of innings, right?
6/23/2010 11:05 PM
schuyler101
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Posted by iain on 6/23/2010 11:05:00 PM (view original):
You're aware that even an entire season isn't a statistically meaningful number of innings, right?
+1
6/24/2010 12:46 AM
schuyler101
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I think those are reasonable expectations for both going forward...

Guardado actually looks to be the slightly better of the 2...he has a pretty big advantage in pitch 4 and GB/FB, but both of those ratings aren't too important which gives him only a slight advantage
6/24/2010 12:48 AM
jimmystick
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Posted by schuyler101 on 6/24/2010 12:46:00 AM (view original):
Posted by iain on 6/23/2010 11:05:00 PM (view original):
You're aware that even an entire season isn't a statistically meaningful number of innings, right?
+1
Guardado has pitched 856 career innings and has a 4.23 ERA.  Sullivan has pitched 670 innings and has a 3.23 ERA.  So I'm looking at more than just one full season... even though this most recent season is the biggest variation of them all. 

I entertained trade offers for Guardado this season because I'm sick of dealing with his underperforming.  But in the end, I looked at Sullivan and thought there's no reason why Guardado can't do exactly what he's doing, seeing as how I view them as identical.  
6/24/2010 8:32 AM
mal247
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Guardado is a switch hitter. His temper is also higher, maybe that causes him to overthrow his pitches.
6/24/2010 10:32 AM
schuyler101
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Posted by jimmystick on 6/24/2010 8:32:00 AM (view original):
Posted by schuyler101 on 6/24/2010 12:46:00 AM (view original):
Posted by iain on 6/23/2010 11:05:00 PM (view original):
You're aware that even an entire season isn't a statistically meaningful number of innings, right?
+1
Guardado has pitched 856 career innings and has a 4.23 ERA.  Sullivan has pitched 670 innings and has a 3.23 ERA.  So I'm looking at more than just one full season... even though this most recent season is the biggest variation of them all. 

I entertained trade offers for Guardado this season because I'm sick of dealing with his underperforming.  But in the end, I looked at Sullivan and thought there's no reason why Guardado can't do exactly what he's doing, seeing as how I view them as identical.  
There really isn't a reason to think Guardado is going to be outperformed by Sullivan to such a large degree, it's remarkable how similar they are and if at gunpoint you had to say which one had an edge you'd have to say Guardado.

Sell high!  Buy Low!  Don't sell low on Guardado,  sell high on Sullivan!  

You'd be trading Guardado at an all-time low.  Don't do it.


6/24/2010 11:16 AM
dedelman
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Posted by schuyler101 on 6/24/2010 11:16:00 AM (view original):
Posted by jimmystick on 6/24/2010 8:32:00 AM (view original):
Posted by schuyler101 on 6/24/2010 12:46:00 AM (view original):
Posted by iain on 6/23/2010 11:05:00 PM (view original):
You're aware that even an entire season isn't a statistically meaningful number of innings, right?
+1
Guardado has pitched 856 career innings and has a 4.23 ERA.  Sullivan has pitched 670 innings and has a 3.23 ERA.  So I'm looking at more than just one full season... even though this most recent season is the biggest variation of them all. 

I entertained trade offers for Guardado this season because I'm sick of dealing with his underperforming.  But in the end, I looked at Sullivan and thought there's no reason why Guardado can't do exactly what he's doing, seeing as how I view them as identical.  
There really isn't a reason to think Guardado is going to be outperformed by Sullivan to such a large degree, it's remarkable how similar they are and if at gunpoint you had to say which one had an edge you'd have to say Guardado.

Sell high!  Buy Low!  Don't sell low on Guardado,  sell high on Sullivan!  

You'd be trading Guardado at an all-time low.  Don't do it.


+1.  One of my strategies is to look around for guys like Guardado who are underperforming their ratings for whatever reason and try to acquire them.
6/24/2010 11:35 AM
toddcommish
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Tell all these things to Ozzie Canseco.

6/24/2010 11:39 AM
iain
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Posted by jimmystick on 6/24/2010 8:32:00 AM (view original):
Posted by schuyler101 on 6/24/2010 12:46:00 AM (view original):
Posted by iain on 6/23/2010 11:05:00 PM (view original):
You're aware that even an entire season isn't a statistically meaningful number of innings, right?
+1
Guardado has pitched 856 career innings and has a 4.23 ERA.  Sullivan has pitched 670 innings and has a 3.23 ERA.  So I'm looking at more than just one full season... even though this most recent season is the biggest variation of them all. 

I entertained trade offers for Guardado this season because I'm sick of dealing with his underperforming.  But in the end, I looked at Sullivan and thought there's no reason why Guardado can't do exactly what he's doing, seeing as how I view them as identical.  
I don't mean to be a dick, but here we go:

In statistics, 1000 is considered a reasonably small number.

1,000,000 is starting to have some statistical meaning.

Basically, an entire career is still a small sample set. This is why you can have an entire season that is an outlier (good OR bad ...but nobody complains about the good seasons... that's not human nature).
6/24/2010 1:32 PM
double-a
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Jimmy, my advice is that you should have taken the offer I made for Guardado.
6/24/2010 1:44 PM
sanderbear
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Consider giving Guardado a different C, or look up how he's done with your starting C vs. your backup C.

This may also be random, but I have noticed that each season, one or two of my SPs performs better with my backup C. The starter has a 90 PC and the backup has a 73 PC. I end up platooning the Cs not on L/R, but by matching them with specific SPs. Note: my Honolulu team regularly leads the AL in ERA.
6/24/2010 1:57 PM
schuyler101
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Posted by iain on 6/24/2010 1:32:00 PM (view original):
Posted by jimmystick on 6/24/2010 8:32:00 AM (view original):
Posted by schuyler101 on 6/24/2010 12:46:00 AM (view original):
Posted by iain on 6/23/2010 11:05:00 PM (view original):
You're aware that even an entire season isn't a statistically meaningful number of innings, right?
+1
Guardado has pitched 856 career innings and has a 4.23 ERA.  Sullivan has pitched 670 innings and has a 3.23 ERA.  So I'm looking at more than just one full season... even though this most recent season is the biggest variation of them all. 

I entertained trade offers for Guardado this season because I'm sick of dealing with his underperforming.  But in the end, I looked at Sullivan and thought there's no reason why Guardado can't do exactly what he's doing, seeing as how I view them as identical.  
I don't mean to be a dick, but here we go:

In statistics, 1000 is considered a reasonably small number.

1,000,000 is starting to have some statistical meaning.

Basically, an entire career is still a small sample set. This is why you can have an entire season that is an outlier (good OR bad ...but nobody complains about the good seasons... that's not human nature).
+1
6/24/2010 2:18 PM
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