Assigning Steal Aggressiveness One Player Topic

JFerg
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Posted by oriolemagic on 6/24/2010 5:02:00 PM (view original):
and the 26% chance of getting caught is factored into that obviously
+1
6/24/2010 5:04 PM
MikeT23
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Actually, nutbag, I think you're stoned.  Chill out and come back tomorrow.  You really aren't following along very well.
6/24/2010 5:05 PM
pstrnutbag44
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So, it's ok to for the sim(GAME ENGINE,  NOT GAME STRATEGY)  to send a runner that is going to get caught, thus having an effect on in-game play (ending a rally? ending an inning?), in order to satisfy an arbitrary SB%? I find it hard to believe ANYONE would defend that postition, especially you! Shouldn't the logic for SB's work better than that? That's all I am asking.

6/24/2010 5:07 PM
pstrnutbag44
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Posted by MikeT23 on 6/24/2010 5:05:00 PM (view original):
Actually, nutbag, I think you're stoned.  Chill out and come back tomorrow.  You really aren't following along very well.
Quite chill, just unsure as to why you have trouble identifying the difference between game engine making a decision based on arbitrary averages and an overagrerssive baserunning strategy being employed. I followed YOU just fine. Problem was, YOU haven't been able to follow the original idea. The game engine is flawed.
6/24/2010 5:09 PM
schuyler101
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Posted by pstrnutbag44 on 6/24/2010 4:06:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/24/2010 3:56:00 PM (view original):
Ask a direct question without all the fluff.  You know I read about 3 lines from you.   And I think giving up 4+ complete games of baserunners is stupid. 
4+ complete games, at 27 outs per game equals 108...which is less than "less than 100".  Apparently, math comprehension isn't your strong suit either.....you even added a plus to the four....
It's never been his strong suit.

Posted by MikeT23 on 6/19/2010 5:08:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, it really does.   The difference between 5-15 and 15-5 is five decisions.  If you don't think a couple of players can cost you 5 decisions, I don't know what game you're playing. 

6/25/2010 3:44 AM
schuyler101
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Posted by MikeT23 on 6/24/2010 4:37:00 PM (view original):
Again, if you want to burn 100 baserunners so you can steal 400 bases, have at it.   I don't think it's a sound strategy.  You were 8th in your world in runs scored.   Crump is stealing at a far superior rate in MG(300/59) and he's 8th from the bottom in runs scored.  Stealing bases and getting caught doesn't mean you score more runs. 

Try making a legit argument.   Show me that your crazy running style is producing more runs than those who sit on their thumbs and wait for dinger.
if you have a great hitting team you need to steal bases at a higher clip for it to be worthwhile

but typically speaking burning 100 baserunners to steal 400 bases is worth it almost any offensive environment, it is sound and really isn't debatable.

Citing overall runs scored numbers doesn't do us any good here because stolen bases are just one small part of total run production...it's kind of like the forum poster who says they play a guy at catcher with 30 PC and his staff led the majors in ERA, so PC doesn't matter.  It's a terrible argument.
6/25/2010 3:48 AM
schuyler101
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Posted by oriolemagic on 6/24/2010 4:51:00 PM (view original):
Mike, the point is this has been studied in depth in real life.  A SB adds .353 runs per game while a CS costs .922.  If you can steal at a 75% clip you are creating additional runs.  There are some managers who say its too small to chance.  There are some managers who will take the chance to add to potential runs anyway they can.  You can argue both sides.
+1

hard data oriolemagic, i love it

remember these numbers are for a typical offensive environment, if you are a poor hitting or a great hitting team the break even point will change.
6/25/2010 3:50 AM
schuyler101
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Posted by pstrnutbag44 on 6/24/2010 5:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/24/2010 5:05:00 PM (view original):
Actually, nutbag, I think you're stoned.  Chill out and come back tomorrow.  You really aren't following along very well.
Quite chill, just unsure as to why you have trouble identifying the difference between game engine making a decision based on arbitrary averages and an overagrerssive baserunning strategy being employed. I followed YOU just fine. Problem was, YOU haven't been able to follow the original idea. The game engine is flawed.
MikeT seems to argue that the game is just fine the way it is, no matter what the topic is.  He usually will say any change is bad and the WIS does a poor job at implementing large scale changes.  Following that line of logic I wonder if he would like to go back to the game we played 5 years ago.  I know I wouldn't.

I think it's silly to not want to improve upon things, there are almost always ways to improve upon things, particularly relatively young creations like HBD.
6/25/2010 3:54 AM
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Assigning Steal Aggressiveness One Player Topic
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