In order to avoid another Bey Moore draft (great pitches, great splits, great velocity, no control currently in his third year HiA throwing a 6.15 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP) I'm asking for additional thoughts on the following pitchers in our upcoming draft:

Pitcher 1 (22/R/R)
                     D St Cn vL vR Ve  G/f 1   2   3    4   5
Projected: 24 65 93 99 98 99 97 92 69 53 41 0
Current:   : 21 65 62 66 74 87 87 76 61 39 30 0
 
Pitcher 2 (19/L/L)
                     D St Cn vL vR Ve  G/f 1   2   3    4   5
Projected: 25 92 91 75 65 49 74 95 73 59 63 0
Current:     21 72 63 55 52 43 58 80 59 39 46 0

Pitcher 3 (19/R/R)
                     D St Cn vL vR Ve  G/f 1   2   3    4   5
Projected:  24 81 92 66 78 84 85 71 64 42 43 29
Current:      24 63 63 43 55 73 75 63 52 33 29 20

Pitcher 4 (21/S/L)
                     D St Cn vL vR Ve  G/f 1   2   3    4   5
Projected:  23 70 83 67 69 37 84 80 71 54 58 32
Current:      19 62 63 48 51 28 68 70 57 40 39 22

Pitcher 5 (22/L/L)
                     D St Cn vL vR Ve  G/f 1   2   3    4   5
Projected:  33 80 48 67 60 87 60 92 78 64 53 0
Current:      29 80 46 51 52 72 47 81 64 51 40 0

Pitcher one looks to be the best pitcher of them all, but I have concerns about him reaching his projections, and he's not likely to be on the board when I roll around with the fourth draft pick.  I think it is worth leaving him as my number one pick given that his current ratings are better than most of my minor league pitchers ratings.

That said two and three look to be very close to me.  The reason I'm giving the nod to number two is that he's a lefty with better pitches and I think he's more likely to hit his projections. I seriously waiver between the two of them, however.  I think one of them should be left on the board by the time the fourth pick rolls around.

Four and Five seem pretty straight foward to me, given number five's lack of control (though I think he's the most likely of all the players on the list to reach his projections and would be acceptable as a suplamental pick given the rest of the pitchers I'm seeing on the board).

What do you think?  Or should I just bag it and try and draft the best players on the market and trade them for "proven" team needs?

Looking at pitcher one's curent ratings, he looks better than some of the other guys' projections. I would deff go with pitcher number one. His stamina is pretty low, but he looks like he has great stuff. Even if he doesn't reach his full projections he should be pretty good. What are the player's thoughts as of signing?

tecwrg, I don't really care for high school players in real life and so I don't look at them or draft them here :)  My college scouting budget is 15 mil, my HS is 2.

I just hope he's on the board rckchamp when I roll around with the fourth pick.  I doubt he will be which is why I'm concerned with two three and four so much.  Any one of them likely will be my number one pick.

Then in that case I like pitcher number five better than pitcher number four. Also what are the hitters like? It really depends on what your team needs

If you can't have pitcher 1, I'd go with #2.  #3 has average pitches, and not amazing splits to overcome them.  #4 is comparable to #2, but slightly inferior in my opinion.  And while #5 has great pitches, he has a combination of low control and below-average splits (for ML pitching).  If his splits were in the 80's, I could stomach the 48 control.  But not when they're in the 60's.

I'd rank them:
1
2
4
3/5

But #1 is Strasburg-esque.

You'll also want to factor in health and makeup if you need a tie-breaker (unless his health is in the 30's, in which case you may just want to pass). 

wow, i wish i were in your league and got to see some free projections.

I wouldn't even have #3 on my draft board, frankly. Those pitch ratings are pretty miserable.

But mhul's right -- don't ignore Health and Makeup.

As a general rule, 22 yr olds are more likely to reach their projections than 19 yr olds.  And #1 is so far beyond the others, it's ridiculous.

1, 2, 4, 3, 5 in that order.

There is some amazing (there is a SS and CF out there with 80+ contact and power, with 70+ splits and eye, there is even a "real" catcher in the draft with 70+/70+/80+/70+/90+ with a pc of 70+ who I wouldn't mind picking up) to decent hitters (high contact, medium power, good eyes) in the draft this year, its just the pitching that looks really thin.

mhulshult what knocks number three down for you?  Is it the lower pitches don't offest the control and better splits?

schedule1, everyone in the draft above me is spending more on their scouting than I am.  This means they are seeing even more than I am, and their predictions maybe better than what I see.  If they want to figure out who I'm talking about ok, given that none of these guys (or even the hitters mentioned in the above paragraph) are likely to fall out of the first round I'm not really giving anything away.  So you are welcome to join our world if you'd like as I'm just as likely to do the samething next draft.

I would take an amazing SS, CF or C (with good PC) over anyone but #1 on your list... Maybe if you are REALLY deep in prospect hitting talent, I would take #2 over those guys, but still probably not, and I certainly wouldn't take 3, 4, or 5

Posted by stmachi on 8/9/2010 4:58:00 PM (view original):
There is some amazing (there is a SS and CF out there with 80+ contact and power, with 70+ splits and eye, there is even a "real" catcher in the draft with 70+/70+/80+/70+/90+ with a pc of 70+ who I wouldn't mind picking up) to decent hitters (high contact, medium power, good eyes) in the draft this year, its just the pitching that looks really thin.

mhulshult what knocks number three down for you?  Is it the lower pitches don't offest the control and better splits?

schedule1, everyone in the draft above me is spending more on their scouting than I am.  This means they are seeing even more than I am, and their predictions maybe better than what I see.  If they want to figure out who I'm talking about ok, given that none of these guys (or even the hitters mentioned in the above paragraph) are likely to fall out of the first round I'm not really giving anything away.  So you are welcome to join our world if you'd like as I'm just as likely to do the samething next draft.

it's not only people before you who count.  you're only taking one of those guys; who knows how many will be on the board after your pick.  also, even if they spent more, your projections still provide a lot of information. 

the fact that none will fall out of the first round is not remotely relevant. 

by providing current ratings, you make it very simple for someone to figure out who you're talking about.  i love talking about players and comparing them, but i urge you to be cautious about revealing projections.

Posted by stmachi on 8/9/2010 4:58:00 PM (view original):
There is some amazing (there is a SS and CF out there with 80+ contact and power, with 70+ splits and eye, there is even a "real" catcher in the draft with 70+/70+/80+/70+/90+ with a pc of 70+ who I wouldn't mind picking up) to decent hitters (high contact, medium power, good eyes) in the draft this year, its just the pitching that looks really thin.

mhulshult what knocks number three down for you?  Is it the lower pitches don't offest the control and better splits?

schedule1, everyone in the draft above me is spending more on their scouting than I am.  This means they are seeing even more than I am, and their predictions maybe better than what I see.  If they want to figure out who I'm talking about ok, given that none of these guys (or even the hitters mentioned in the above paragraph) are likely to fall out of the first round I'm not really giving anything away.  So you are welcome to join our world if you'd like as I'm just as likely to do the samething next draft.

In response to your question, it's his pitches.  Assuming your projections, his best pitch will just creep over 70.  That's not going to cut it if I'm drafting him 4th overall.  If you traded in his last pitch (projected to 29) for a pitch in the high 80's or 90's, then he moves just above pitcher #2 (but still well below #1)