That's what I'd do.

bumped for referencing a discussion. 

I'm a rookie owner who currently has a 14m adv. scouting budget. Next year I'm going to have a lot of compensatory draft picks (in the double digits), so I was thinking of raising the budget to 18 because having a better idea of the prospects' value will pay off a large number of times. However, I could still use the payroll flexibility, and because I'll be spending a lot on signing bonuses, I'm not gonna be in the market for IFAs. Where do you think I should go next year between $10 and $18 mil?

Advanced scouting won't help you w/ your draft picks, its only for prospects that are currently in the world.  Your high school and college scouting will tell you their potential pre-draft, not to mention the higher you buget there, the more prospects you'll see.

I'd lower your advance scouting, and put as much into HS/college scouting if you have a lot of compensatory picks.  You won't get perenial all stars with those picks most likely, though you can often find good roll players, very solid setup man, strong catchers, defensive SS, etc..  Players worth having on your 25 man roster one day, and if you're lucky perhaps an all star slides thru the ranks to you at one of those picks.

Hey guys i'm doing this. I like to have high payrolls so I need to move money from somewhere. My question is simple. Can you still only adjust by 4 million each season? I've been away for awhile. In other words if I am at 14 mill, I can only drop to 10 mill next year, right?

correct

I still think its total BS and that WIS needs to make player progression more randomized. No team should be able to avoid Adavnce Scouting and still estimate fairly accurate progressions.

True.  But you have to use it if you know it's there.

The problem with random is, well, it's random.    Part of this game is figuring out how things work.   As  a 0 ADV guy, I'm still not sold that it's the best way to go.   The limitations on trading FOR young players is quite restrictive.  So, by default, I'm not trading for many 2nd year players.  Of course, if you're not trading at all, ADV is completely pointless.

>> Of course, if you're not trading at all, ADV is completely pointless. <<

Doesn't ADV also impact how accurate the projections are for my own players?

Yeah, they will develop as they will and ADV budget won't impact that, but does higher ADV gives me a better idea what I can expect?

For players I draft, if I had a high HS draft budget and low ADV budget, should I be keeping the scout draft projections because they're probably more accurate than what I see after I sign the HS draft pick and the ADV projections take over?

Overall development shouldn't be random (ie - quality scouting should always give you a good picture of what a player will eventually become), but yes, progression to that final result should not be so linear. Because it's so linear, the only real limitation you have is that you can't really evaluate guys who haven't played a full season, and possible guys who have a major injury early on. Is not being able to trade for a 2nd year pro really that big of a deal? And if you have good draft scouting, you could just copy the prospect ratings into a spreadsheet and allieviate some of that anyhow.

There should be guys who see a big spike in their first year and then plateau, and then also guys who only improve a bit initially and then take off in their 3rd and 4th years. I'm not talking late round surprises or early round busts here - their actual potential wouldn't change and would be discernable with quality scouting - it just wouldn't be so accurately discerned from their initial development pattern.

It does impact projections for your own players.  But, if you trust your drafting/signing, it doesn't matter.    When I draft/sign a player, I immediately make a note as to whether I think he can be a BL player.   That note stays with him until I remove it.    It doesn't matter to me if he's projected at 70/54/88/78/92.   I'll know what he is when/if he's ready for the big leagues.   I don't care what he was "supposed" to be.

AC, if I determine a player should be a BL player when I draft him, does it matter if his development is in S1 or S4 of his career?   I'm not giving up on him until S5-S6.

And, yes, being unable to get a "read" on an entire season of players can be a big deal. 

Posted by MikeT23 on 8/30/2010 3:18:00 PM (view original):
AC, if I determine a player should be a BL player when I draft him, does it matter if his development is in S1 or S4 of his career?   I'm not giving up on him until S5-S6.

This isn't about the ability of 0 adv scouting folks (and I'm on my way to being one) to evaluate their own players - absolutely you're going to base your assessment of your drafted player on your better draft scouting.

This is about making it so that you can't look at every player that's gone through/completed 1 full season and get a reasonably accurate picture of where he's headed based on nothing but how he's already developing.

And you're absolutely correct, making development patterns less predictable won't impact the final result at all - which is exactly why you can do this - you make scrimping on advance scouting a real trade-off again and don't really mess with any other part of the game.