A free ~$18M in Advance Scouting Topic

MikeT23
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if you're not trading for a lot of prospects, there really is no need for ADV.   There just isn't.   But, for owners who makes a dozen deals every year while "rebuilding", it's still useful.  Owners develop players differently.    They also draft differently.  It takes time to figure out who does what.   So, if you're only making two trades per season that involves prospects, it's no big deal.  You can do your research on your trade partner and move on.
8/30/2010 5:13 PM
bigal888
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even with $18 million adv scouting, I had many players that were still well below their projected ratings by the time they stopped developing.  There are so many factors that affect a player's development and I don't think adv scouting takes all of them into account.  All it will tell you is what that player would be in a perfect situation with no injuries - how many times does that happen??
8/30/2010 7:08 PM
tzentmeyer
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Just to chime in, the listed formula here is nowhere near accurate.  It may be an acceptable estimate for some players under certain conditions, but that's about it.
8/31/2010 8:40 AM
MikeT23
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And there you have it.  Maybe ADV is more important than you think.
8/31/2010 8:42 AM
csherwood
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I dont agree with TZ - I have 14m in AS and have run the estimates using this formula on tons of players while ignoring my projected ratings, then looking at my projected and been in the ballpark over 90% of the time. But if TZ's word is a statement that WIS wil not be changing the system, then I am going to start dropping all my AS down to 0 too. Why put myself at a 14 million dollar disadvantage to the rest of the league?

As to bigal's post - 18 million in AS doesnt get the guys to their ratings - that requires playing time, coaching, playing time, avoiding injuries, and playing time (guess which one I consider the most important?).
8/31/2010 9:43 AM
tropicana
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I don't really care if it is accurate...if the formula I use gets me close to where players will end up being then...I'm happy about that.  That's all I want/need. I don't care if it is a few points off or not, because even at the highest levels of scouting, those projections will be off a few points.

To be fair, I'm not necessarily sure I'd even spend on the scouting if they made the change in a random growth way.  Maybe there will be busts, but it is easy to see whether a prospect is any good or not.
8/31/2010 4:27 PM
cmthieme
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Posted by csherwood on 8/31/2010 9:43:00 AM (view original):
I dont agree with TZ - I have 14m in AS and have run the estimates using this formula on tons of players while ignoring my projected ratings, then looking at my projected and been in the ballpark over 90% of the time. But if TZ's word is a statement that WIS wil not be changing the system, then I am going to start dropping all my AS down to 0 too. Why put myself at a 14 million dollar disadvantage to the rest of the league?

As to bigal's post - 18 million in AS doesnt get the guys to their ratings - that requires playing time, coaching, playing time, avoiding injuries, and playing time (guess which one I consider the most important?).
+1...if WIS doesn't think development is almost completely predictable and that this formula provides way too accurate a picture, I don't know what to say other than people who continue to use advanced scouting are wasting money.  The only reason I have not gone to 0 is that I fully expected WIS to address this.  It's disappointing to see TZ's reply.  Very disappointing.  It's an element of the game that should provide strategic trade-offs like other budget areas, and instead provides nothing but a competitive disadvantage to less-experienced/involved players.
8/31/2010 5:00 PM
MikeT23
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I still disagree regardless of anyone's reply/response.   I've been using 0 for quite some time.   I find it restrictive when trading.   Maybe it's because the other owner believes his 20m shows that 91 when I'm projecting 84.   But I can't seem to work a deal for prospects with an owner holding 16m-20m in ADV.  

8/31/2010 5:09 PM
TheJester74
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 I used to put ADV Scouting as high as I could and I would still frequently be disappointed at times they missed projections, so often in my head I naturally subtracted a couple of points off every players projections.  I won't claim this formula is perfect, but it's simple and gives me as good of numbers as ever had with spending tons of money on Adv Scouting.

Personally I wouldn't have expected anything else but a denial of it's effectiveness by the developers.  It's a core value to the game and I can't believe it could easily been given a major overhaul.  Still we can't ignore numbers that are right in front of our faces, and I don't think it's underhanded to use them to get a good idea of how players progress.  I would enjoy the game very much if we had some way to mold players the way we like, or focus on certain areas (even at the expense of other areas), and development was not as linear.   

8/31/2010 8:51 PM
TheJester74
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Posted by MikeT23 on 8/31/2010 5:09:00 PM (view original):

I still disagree regardless of anyone's reply/response.   I've been using 0 for quite some time.   I find it restrictive when trading.   Maybe it's because the other owner believes his 20m shows that 91 when I'm projecting 84.   But I can't seem to work a deal for prospects with an owner holding 16m-20m in ADV.  

That's actually a completely different topic I've been wondering about lately, and that is trading in general has seemed much less that what it used to be.  You seem to attribute it to the scouting differences, I'm not sure I would attribute it to that even though it might be a factor.  I wonder if the lack of scaricity in talent is an issue. I'm in a 2nd year league currently and forgot how scarce quality pitching and good defensive SS could be compared to my league that is in S17.  Players that wouldn't even get a sniff of a contract in FA in the S17 league are getting bid up in the S2 league. 
8/31/2010 9:03 PM
MikeT23
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It could be that ownership in the worlds you join has stabilized.   If someone has already built the team "in his image", he doesn't need to make a bunch of trades.   S2 owners are still defining the team.  S17 owners are not.

Could be any number of factors.  I've just noticed I have a lot more trouble completing a prospect deal with a 20m ADV guy than I do a 0 ADV guy.  I'm assuming it's because we see the same thing.  Not that I make many prospect trades anyway. 
9/1/2010 6:48 AM
bigal888
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Posted by csherwood on 8/31/2010 9:43:00 AM (view original):
I dont agree with TZ - I have 14m in AS and have run the estimates using this formula on tons of players while ignoring my projected ratings, then looking at my projected and been in the ballpark over 90% of the time. But if TZ's word is a statement that WIS wil not be changing the system, then I am going to start dropping all my AS down to 0 too. Why put myself at a 14 million dollar disadvantage to the rest of the league?

As to bigal's post - 18 million in AS doesnt get the guys to their ratings - that requires playing time, coaching, playing time, avoiding injuries, and playing time (guess which one I consider the most important?).
I understand that, maybe I stated it poorly.  My point is that adv scouting will show a ceiling that is unattainable 90% of the time - so what good is it?
9/1/2010 9:51 AM
sergei91
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absolutely nothin
9/1/2010 9:53 AM
trsnoke
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Say it again
9/1/2010 1:12 PM
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A free ~$18M in Advance Scouting Topic
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