Underperformer Topic

dwoolery
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At a glance it seems this guy had his best years in KC throwing to a guy with a PC over 80. Not sure why that would be ruled out as a relevant change.
9/27/2010 8:29 PM
deanod
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Because that should affect his ERA by like 0.10, it's pretty close to negligible.
9/27/2010 8:33 PM
MikeT23
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Sez you.

9/27/2010 8:37 PM
deanod
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I'm actually not sure that PC actually does anything at all.  I wouldn't be surprised if they just put it in there and then never got around to making it functional.

In Regulars World, my C has a 47 PC.  Here are his catcher ERA's over the past 4 seasons:

710 Inn 3.86 ERA
1022 Inn 3.27 ERA
1038 Inn 4.03 ERA
710 Inn 3.88 ERA

I've used various high PC guys as backups, and they have all been in the 84-88 range.  Here are how they have performed:

577 Inn 4.41 ERA
441 Inn 3.74 ERA
441 Inn 4.08 ERA
756 Inn 4.17 ERA

That's definitely a relevant sample size, and the guy who's 40 points worse finished with the better catcher ERA 4 years in a row.  How can a rating be relevant if bad outperforms elite 4 (!) seasons in a row?

9/27/2010 8:46 PM
MikeT23
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That's a small sample size.
9/27/2010 9:19 PM
deanod
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Small enough to not prove anything, but also relevant enough to make you question the power of PC without any other strong evidence in its favor.

There will be a noticeable difference between a 90/90/90/90 D SS compared to an 80/80/80/80 over a full season, and there's no way the latter will outperform the former over a 4 season sample.

I would love to know the precise value of PC, but whenever I look at situations such as these it seems to be rather negligible.
9/27/2010 9:28 PM
MikeT23
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I worked on it a long time ago.  20+ seasons.   It makes a difference.  Not much between 70 and 80.  Pretty big difference between 40 and 80. 
9/27/2010 9:33 PM
dwoolery
Posts: 320 (0)
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Posted by deanod on 9/27/2010 8:33:00 PM (view original):
Because that should affect his ERA by like 0.10, it's pretty close to negligible.
Huh?? In Seasons 5-7 he logged 626 IP with an avg ERA around 3.16 with a primary catcher who had a PC of 81, in a season and a half for Austin he was an ERA of about 5.51 with a primary catcher whose PC is 66. I know the sample size is too small to prove causality, but what's there does not suggest to me that PC is irrelevant.
9/27/2010 9:53 PM
deanod
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Umm, there are other much more important variables in play there.
9/27/2010 10:01 PM
deanod
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Different ballpark, different defense, year to year variance, and any minor engine tweaks over time that might throw off his performance.

My PC comparison was much more ceteris paribus, and a bigger sample size. 
9/27/2010 10:05 PM
strikeout26
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Posted by deanod on 9/27/2010 8:47:00 PM (view original):
I'm actually not sure that PC actually does anything at all.  I wouldn't be surprised if they just put it in there and then never got around to making it functional.

In Regulars World, my C has a 47 PC.  Here are his catcher ERA's over the past 4 seasons:

710 Inn 3.86 ERA
1022 Inn 3.27 ERA
1038 Inn 4.03 ERA
710 Inn 3.88 ERA

I've used various high PC guys as backups, and they have all been in the 84-88 range.  Here are how they have performed:

577 Inn 4.41 ERA
441 Inn 3.74 ERA
441 Inn 4.08 ERA
756 Inn 4.17 ERA

That's definitely a relevant sample size, and the guy who's 40 points worse finished with the better catcher ERA 4 years in a row.  How can a rating be relevant if bad outperforms elite 4 (!) seasons in a row?

In my first season, I played a guy with a pitch calling of 10. Did not understand the ratings. I found out very quickly that pitch calling did make a difference and is relevant.
9/27/2010 11:20 PM
iain
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Posted by deanod on 9/27/2010 8:47:00 PM (view original):
I'm actually not sure that PC actually does anything at all.  I wouldn't be surprised if they just put it in there and then never got around to making it functional.

In Regulars World, my C has a 47 PC.  Here are his catcher ERA's over the past 4 seasons:

710 Inn 3.86 ERA
1022 Inn 3.27 ERA
1038 Inn 4.03 ERA
710 Inn 3.88 ERA

I've used various high PC guys as backups, and they have all been in the 84-88 range.  Here are how they have performed:

577 Inn 4.41 ERA
441 Inn 3.74 ERA
441 Inn 4.08 ERA
756 Inn 4.17 ERA

That's definitely a relevant sample size, and the guy who's 40 points worse finished with the better catcher ERA 4 years in a row.  How can a rating be relevant if bad outperforms elite 4 (!) seasons in a row?

No chance your b/u plays mostly with your mop-up pitcher?

Your better hitter is in there with better pitchers?

cERA has way too much noise to be taken in a vacuum.
9/29/2010 12:33 PM
WiredTiger
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Can you guys please not convince Deanod of the importance of PC? He's in my division and it's been working out for me so far.
9/29/2010 1:56 PM
deanod
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I've considered that iain, but I don't think there's much of a correlation.  I don't use player rest, and while my backup is in for D replacement, I have some pretty damn good relievers for the end of games.  Who knows, maybe by coincidence by 47 PC guy happened to play a greater portion of innings with my best arms, but I would think that it would even out over that sample size.

WT, I got Dustin Hinchliffe especially for my matchups with you.  Against anyone else, I'll take Stairs's enormously better bat even if I'm wrong about PC by a thousand miles.
9/29/2010 2:05 PM
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