ratings preference...contact versus eye... Topic

jvford
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Posted by isack24 on 11/10/2010 10:54:00 AM (view original):
What about this guy:

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1858919

Seems like you can survive with 40-50 contact and a huge eye, too.
It's not a question of whether or not a guy like that will be good.

It's a question of whether or not you'd rather have a player with 97 contact and 45 eye, given the other ratings.
11/10/2010 11:16 AM
isack24
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I understand that.  My point is that for every guy someone uses to prove a point, there is one to be fond to prove the opposite.  I didn't post the first example of player, I was simply responding with one.

11/10/2010 11:32 AM
tecwrg
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Posted by jvford on 11/10/2010 11:16:00 AM (view original):
Posted by isack24 on 11/10/2010 10:54:00 AM (view original):
What about this guy:

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1858919

Seems like you can survive with 40-50 contact and a huge eye, too.
It's not a question of whether or not a guy like that will be good.

It's a question of whether or not you'd rather have a player with 97 contact and 45 eye, given the other ratings.
Which is why it all comes down to OPS.  If a guy has an .800+ OPS, he's bringing something good to the plate.  How that OPS is broken down (high/low contact/eye)is less relevant that the fact that it's an above average OPS.
11/10/2010 11:32 AM
isack24
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I just think that's way too simplistic a view.  SLG is massively overvalued in OPS.

Are you really saying you would want a team full of these guys because they have an .800+ OPS (derived almost exclusively from SLG):

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3038397

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2713211

You also need guys to get on base.

At the risk of bringing in a real life example, I'll point out the 2010 NY Yankees.

859 Runs Scored (1st in ML by 41 runs)

.267 BA (8th in ML)

.350 OBP (1st in ML by .009)

.436 SLG (3rd in ML)

.786 OPS (2nd in ML)

By contrast, the Red Sox has the highest OPS and SLG, but had an OBP .011 less than the Yankees, and scored 41 runs less.

Now that is a cherry-picked example, but it's pretty common year in and year out that OBP drives run production, assuming a decent SLG to go with.  The point is, OPS is extremely valuable, but it should be looked at with an eye towards OBP/SLG distribution, too.  Not all OPSes are created equally.
11/10/2010 11:45 AM
seank07
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Posted by MikeT23 on 11/10/2010 6:52:00 AM (view original):
Posted by seank07 on 11/10/2010 12:43:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 11/9/2010 11:29:00 AM (view original):
Some say a hit is not an out.  And a guy with 80/80/80/80 ratings will get some hits.
A guy hitting .350 with an OBP of .380 may not be as valuable as a guy hitting .250 with an OBP of .425.  Simply put, the guy with the higher OBP gets on base more than the guy with a lower one, hence not making as many outs genius.  Many other factors should be taken into consideration as well, such as OPS, which incorporates a hitters ability to get on base with his ability to move runners along with his batted balls.
And he may be more valuable, genius.  Given the choice, I'd take a team of .350/.380 players over a team of .250/.425 players all day.

Which is why I would like to join whatever league you are in.  I would love to play against guys that think the way you do.....would make trading so easy!
11/10/2010 11:48 AM
MikeT23
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OPS includes guys getting on base.

And your cherrypicked example equates to 1 run every 4 games. 

Anyway, back to HBD, OPS is largely determined by power with eye being the secondary factor(which "proves" your point).   Baserunning and speed have virtually no role while contact bounces all over the place.  And, of course, my stats/ratings formula only comes from BL players with BL splits(with a few notable exceptions which proves splits are also important).    If split and contact is 60ish, get a big power guy and you'll have a nice OPS.  The eye is a lot more all over the place whereas the power is constant.
11/10/2010 11:54 AM
MikeT23
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Posted by seank07 on 11/10/2010 11:48:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 11/10/2010 6:52:00 AM (view original):
Posted by seank07 on 11/10/2010 12:43:00 AM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 11/9/2010 11:29:00 AM (view original):
Some say a hit is not an out.  And a guy with 80/80/80/80 ratings will get some hits.
A guy hitting .350 with an OBP of .380 may not be as valuable as a guy hitting .250 with an OBP of .425.  Simply put, the guy with the higher OBP gets on base more than the guy with a lower one, hence not making as many outs genius.  Many other factors should be taken into consideration as well, such as OPS, which incorporates a hitters ability to get on base with his ability to move runners along with his batted balls.
And he may be more valuable, genius.  Given the choice, I'd take a team of .350/.380 players over a team of .250/.425 players all day.

Which is why I would like to join whatever league you are in.  I would love to play against guys that think the way you do.....would make trading so easy!
Get more than 11 games under your belt and then get back to me.   I'll trade you all my 90 eye guys at a premium.
11/10/2010 11:56 AM
jvford
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Posted by isack24 on 11/10/2010 11:46:00 AM (view original):
I just think that's way too simplistic a view.  SLG is massively overvalued in OPS.

Are you really saying you would want a team full of these guys because they have an .800+ OPS (derived almost exclusively from SLG):

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3038397

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2713211

You also need guys to get on base.

At the risk of bringing in a real life example, I'll point out the 2010 NY Yankees.

859 Runs Scored (1st in ML by 41 runs)

.267 BA (8th in ML)

.350 OBP (1st in ML by .009)

.436 SLG (3rd in ML)

.786 OPS (2nd in ML)

By contrast, the Red Sox has the highest OPS and SLG, but had an OBP .011 less than the Yankees, and scored 41 runs less.

Now that is a cherry-picked example, but it's pretty common year in and year out that OBP drives run production, assuming a decent SLG to go with.  The point is, OPS is extremely valuable, but it should be looked at with an eye towards OBP/SLG distribution, too.  Not all OPSes are created equally.

You're right that SLG is overvalued in OPS, and I should have clarified in my post about my formula that I looked at a modified OPS where I weight OBA 80% more than SLG.

So a .400/.400 OBA/SLG is more valuable than a .350/.450

11/10/2010 11:58 AM
tecwrg
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Posted by isack24 on 11/10/2010 11:46:00 AM (view original):
I just think that's way too simplistic a view.  SLG is massively overvalued in OPS.

Are you really saying you would want a team full of these guys because they have an .800+ OPS (derived almost exclusively from SLG):

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3038397

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2713211

You also need guys to get on base.

At the risk of bringing in a real life example, I'll point out the 2010 NY Yankees.

859 Runs Scored (1st in ML by 41 runs)

.267 BA (8th in ML)

.350 OBP (1st in ML by .009)

.436 SLG (3rd in ML)

.786 OPS (2nd in ML)

By contrast, the Red Sox has the highest OPS and SLG, but had an OBP .011 less than the Yankees, and scored 41 runs less.

Now that is a cherry-picked example, but it's pretty common year in and year out that OBP drives run production, assuming a decent SLG to go with.  The point is, OPS is extremely valuable, but it should be looked at with an eye towards OBP/SLG distribution, too.  Not all OPSes are created equally.

I've said all along that you want to have a mix of folks in your lineup.  You don't want to be one-dimensional.

But I'll also stand by what I said about OPS.  If I have a guy who has an .800+ OPS, I'll find a place for him in my lineup (assuming he fit's defensively somewhere on the field).  Whether it's at the top (because of high OBP) or in the middle (high SLG).

11/10/2010 12:05 PM
jvford
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You're right.  But sometimes you only get to choose one of those guys, and I think that's the point of the discussion.
11/10/2010 12:10 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by MikeT23 on 11/9/2010 6:33:00 AM (view original):
The answer to this question is always "It depends on your team".    Too many of either type is not ideal.
Which is why this, the first response, is the answer.
11/10/2010 12:11 PM
isack24
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"OPS includes guys getting on base."

Who said it didn't?  But by its very nature, OBP is undervalued by OPS.

"And your cherrypicked example equates to 1 run every 4 games."

Aside from the fact that 40 runs over the course of a season between the number 1 and 2 teams in baseball is pretty significant, that's not the point.  It's that OBP drives run production as much as one stat.  More than SLG, more than AVG, and in some cases, more than OPS itself.

"Anyway, back to HBD, OPS is largely determined by power with eye being the secondary factor(which "proves" your point).   Baserunning and speed have virtually no role while contact bounces all over the place.  And, of course, my stats/ratings formula only comes from BL players with BL splits(with a few notable exceptions which proves splits are also important).    If split and contact is 60ish, get a big power guy and you'll have a nice OPS.  The eye is a lot more all over the place whereas the power is constant."

I agree.  My point is that just because you have a guy with an .800+ OPS, that doesn't mean he is valuable.  SLG is important, but if you have a .250/.300/.500 guy, that isn't necessarily as likely to produce runs as a .250/.370/.420 guy, despite the lower OPS.
11/10/2010 12:12 PM
isack24
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Interesting discussion, anyway.

11/10/2010 12:13 PM
MikeT23
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Baseball is about getting people on base and moving them around.    OBP and SLG accomplish those things.    I don't really buy "OBP is undervalued and SLG is overvalued" for one simple reason:  A walk is one base, a double is two bases.   One of them gets you halfway to a run, the other gets you a quarter of the way to a run. 

Seasons are played one game at a time.    Statheads don't really like that but they are.   A run every 4 games isn't significant in the grand scheme of things.   As far as "driving run production", I suppose we could argue which one is more importants but I'll refer back to my first point in this post.  A walk, in and of itself, isn't producing a run.   A homerun is.

If you don't think a .800+ OPS guys is valuable, I'd be happy to take that pesky fellow off your hands.  .500 SLG is pretty valuable.

11/10/2010 12:25 PM
robusk
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Posted by MikeT23 on 11/10/2010 10:33:00 AM (view original):

I always think back to this guy when people ramble on about eye.   Essentially 80 POW/CON/VR with 35 eye. 

http://www.whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=563583

Hits .280 and slugs .500 with a .340 OBP.    You can't sell me that low eye is a career killer if the other ratings are where you need them to be.

Like I said earlier, there are always examples that work one way or the other.

Eye not a factor here, but he has abysmal contact and has been a well above average hitter over his career:

www.wisjournal.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx
11/10/2010 12:25 PM
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