Posted by timf on 1/4/2011 12:24:00 PM (view original):
isack I think you are missing the whole point here. He is going to look him back to see if he has the opportunity for an EASY out at the plate. He isn't going to take the risk on a close play for the reasons you said. But, in this situation, there was no play because the runner didn't attempt to score. Why you are arguing whether or not he would actually throw it to the plate is irrelevant because he had no need. He may or may not have looked the runner back. The ball may or may not have been hit sharply, right at him or one-hopped him making the decision to run home a tough one for the runner. None of this matters because the boxscore doesn't tell us exactly what happened. You are assuming it was a routine play and making a huge deal about it even though you have nothing to go on.
Oh my god. For everyone jumping into the conversation, either read the thread and understand the concessions that I've made - including that it's not a big deal, that it is just a SIM and it's not going to be perfect, that the logic appears to be fine since everyone agrees, that odd things do happen, that stupid people make stupid plays, etc.
But by all means, keep letting me know what "assumptions" I'm making, and how big of a deal I'm currently making it.
This stopped being about HBD and certainly stopped being about this particular HBD play a long time ago.