Temporary Ratings Changes Topic

opie100
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Are particularly good games by mediocre players partial evidence that the engine temporarily bumps players up or down before individual games (in a fashion that smooths over the course of a season)?  Additionally, given how player performance can swing wildly from season to season, is there any evidence that there are temporary "season-long" behind-the-scenes effects?
1/28/2011 2:07 PM (edited)
taz21
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no
1/28/2011 2:08 PM
98greenc5
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maybe it will help you to think of ratings like a coin flipping exercise. A coin flip will come up heads half the time, and tails half the time.

If you flip a coin 100 times, you would expect 50 heads. But in any given 100 coin flips, you might get 45 heads or 55 heads. That is the nature of variance. Doesn't mean that the coin somehow changed its rating from 50% heads, just that you are seeing the variance that comes naturally from the statistics

Go to 1,000 flips instead of 100, you are less likely to have 450 or 550 heads, but you are also not guaranteed to have 500. Flip a coin 10,000,000,000 times and I'm virtually certain you won't have 5,000,000 heads. You will likely be closer to 50% heads than you would from one observation of 100 flips, but there is an expected distribution of results in a bell curve around 50%.

A "season" of HBD stats certainly ins't "long term" enough that every season so be virtually identical (i.e. every season won't be consistent with the "expectations" given the underlying ratings)
1/28/2011 2:25 PM
opie100
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I'm down with probably theory - and am not suggesting the phenomena we all witness cannot "naturally" be accounted for.  Just wondering if there is any chance that players are randomly bumped up or down going into a given game throughout the season.
1/28/2011 2:29 PM
iain
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That's quite the conspiracy theory you have there.

Think of Mark Whiten.  These things happen when you play 1000s upon 1000s of games.

1/28/2011 2:52 PM
98greenc5
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The only one I believe in slightly (just from random oobservation which is notoriously unreliable) is that I think there could be a behind-the-scenes trigger where a guy sometimes gets "hurt" (ratings wise) before his injury shows up

For example, a good picher will have a handful of bad starts, then he shows up with a shoulder injury for 60 days. Almost like he got hurt a while ago, but only got "diagnosed" with the injury after a few bad starts. Again, it might be that I only "notice" this pattern when it happens, and discount all the times a pitcher is lights out before getting the same injury. And obviously that wouldn't apply to "in-game" injuries like injuries while fielding or running or whatnot.

That is my only ratings conspiracy theory
1/28/2011 2:53 PM
MikeT23
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I like to believe WifS does this to me during the playoffs:

1/28/2011 3:03 PM
dwoolery
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I'm probably too superstitious, and i get the probability stuff, but i also haven't seen anything in the dev chats specifically denying that the code doesn't include some element to give temporary modifiers at the individual or player level for short or long periods of time. For practical purposes it would only seem to be relevant when deciding to go with the hot hand or minimizing use of someone in a "slump". I'll tinker with that a third of the way into the season, and i'm more satisfied with the outcomes than not.
1/28/2011 3:09 PM
MikeT23
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A non-denial is not the same as a confirmation.
1/28/2011 3:17 PM
dwoolery
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I do not deny that is true.
1/28/2011 3:30 PM
MikeT23
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I adjust my line-ups after 40 games and pitching staff about 3 times thru the rotation.   That doesn't mean I believe their are performance modifiers, hidden ratings or hot streaks.   Just means I'm not going to plunk down my money and do nothing if I don't like the results.    I always tell people who complain that they're not winning to do something.   If you're last in the in runs scored, sitting around complaining that you can't score runs isn't going to create an offensive explosion.
1/28/2011 3:35 PM
dwoolery
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Actually, the only point i was trying to make was that unless someone can point me to something i haven't seen, there's no way to know for certain the answer to the question. Last i heard (and this was awhile ago) programming can't generate a truly random series, so algorithms are created to simulate that as closely as possible. Whether or not someone added another layer of design to modify that can only be answered by the programmer . . . Going with the hot hand is, within reason, a reasonable approach - as is going with the ratings in every case.
1/28/2011 3:35 PM
dwoolery
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Posted by MikeT23 on 1/28/2011 3:35:00 PM (view original):
I adjust my line-ups after 40 games and pitching staff about 3 times thru the rotation.   That doesn't mean I believe their are performance modifiers, hidden ratings or hot streaks.   Just means I'm not going to plunk down my money and do nothing if I don't like the results.    I always tell people who complain that they're not winning to do something.   If you're last in the in runs scored, sitting around complaining that you can't score runs isn't going to create an offensive explosion.
I just tell them there's no crying in baseball. Which of course just illicits more tears.
1/28/2011 3:39 PM
zbrent716
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Posted by dwoolery on 1/28/2011 3:36:00 PM (view original):
Actually, the only point i was trying to make was that unless someone can point me to something i haven't seen, there's no way to know for certain the answer to the question. Last i heard (and this was awhile ago) programming can't generate a truly random series, so algorithms are created to simulate that as closely as possible. Whether or not someone added another layer of design to modify that can only be answered by the programmer . . . Going with the hot hand is, within reason, a reasonable approach - as is going with the ratings in every case.

In Sim baseball, does it hurt your team at all (other than RS record) to rest them at the end of the season before the playoffs? It seems like some players "lose their focus". Are hitting streaks completely random events (what I mean is, is there something programmed for a player to go hot or cold)? (dontrellew - All-Star - 4:48 PM)

hot/cold and streaks are purely random.

http://www.whatifsports.com/devchat/devchat.asp?chatid=28

Remember, the HBD engine is the one imported from Sim baseball.
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are streaks a hidden factor? i have a RP that was lights out for the first 40 games or so, but lately he hasn't gotten anyone out, with 100% energy and the same defense behind him (ianrmalcolm - Hall of Famer - 3:22 PM)

No. We don't have any streak code in the game. Any streak is just a byproduct of the probability and statistics used in the game.

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Going with the "hot hand" may make sense if the *different* combination of ratings allows for the possibility that you mis-read the ratings in the first place.

Going with the "hot hand" despite inferior ratings across the board will decrease your long-term success, but get you invited to plenty of home poker games.

1/28/2011 3:42 PM
MikeT23
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Are you hitting on chuck's boy?  
1/28/2011 3:48 PM
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