Is this guy a true #1 SP on a winning team? Trade? Topic

mr_gone
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He was draft #1 out of collage at 21yo. 

   
                                OV           Dur         Hel        Stam        Con        L           R          Pow         GB         1            2            3       

His First Spring    63              33           71           86            67         44        54          81             53         78         53          28

Projected             80               33          73           95             94         57        73         93             61         91         63          39


I am asking because I am not sure about only having three pitches.  Not sure how much that will hold him back.  


My trade offer is two young SP    


Player #1   is 22yo    4 Year Pro     0  ML Prospect 

   
                                        OV             Dur           Hel          Stam          Con         L        R         Pow         GB         1           2           3         4          5   

His  Spring #4               74              29            87               86             82          51      59         84            81         91       66          34        53      36

Projected                       83              29            92                90             94          59      68          89           88         96       72         40        58       40


Player #2   was a 22yo   Int Prospect    Now 23yo   1  Year pro    0  ML  Prospect 

                                         
                                       OV           Dur           Hel            Stam         Con        L            R          Pow          GB           1          2          3           4          

His Spring #1               74             25              94              89              63        74         70           86             53         71        75        56        31

Projected                      81             26              94              94              72         85        76            87            53          82        79        61        33  


I know the two guys are strong but my not be true #1 SP. And that is what I am trying to get.  He is in a win now mode. And I  looking to build. Is the first guy a true #1 SP?

Any input would be great. Thanks













2/9/2011 8:30 PM
hypnotoad
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I'm no expert, but if that guy becomes the best starter you have, you'll be in trouble.
2/9/2011 8:36 PM
mbriese
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Pitcher #2 is the best pitcher listed.
2/9/2011 8:36 PM
iain
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To answer your question, 3 pitches aren't a huge deal.  Having 2nd and 3rd pitches that drop off that badly will lead to inconsistency.

The rest depends a lot more on the first player mentioned vs. "Player #2" .... "Player #1" is irrelevant, since he is finished developing (for the most part) by now.

Based on your projections alone (assuming they're reasonably accurate), I'm not sure I'd rather the first guy over "Player #2".  They're both guys I'd be content to start a playoff game with, but I think the last guy will be more consistent over the course of season, with more quality pitches and more balanced splits.

With only 4 seasons under your belt, I might also consider the experience of the other "win now" owner.  If he's eager to make this move, and has more experience, you're probably getting screwed.
2/9/2011 8:42 PM
mr_gone
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The one thing that I have to think about is that SP #2 is a 22yo international FA. And some say that he will not go up from there. He is for the most part what he is. 
2/9/2011 9:16 PM
mbriese
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Posted by mr_gone on 2/9/2011 9:16:00 PM (view original):
The one thing that I have to think about is that SP #2 is a 22yo international FA. And some say that he will not go up from there. He is for the most part what he is. 
What's his make-up, what kind of coaching will  he have and will he be pitching a lot of innings? If he was to even go up a little I'd probably still prefer him over chancing it with the #1 pick. There's a strong chance that his vR will not even get above 70, and while he'll have great control and a good pitch, I personally would prefer the balance of the IFA.
2/9/2011 9:31 PM
mr_gone
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I think I am going to hold on to the two SP. I would like to get younger. My plan from the start was to win seasons 5-7. But being new I stepped in **** every move I made. Like 35mill unspent one season. I have a draft were I may not get an impact player out of. And I was the #7 pick overall. So I am trying to turn the clock back with my guys. And make my run seasons 7-9. I guess i will have a lot of time to move them. Thanks


2/9/2011 9:58 PM
moethedog
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#2 is a major league pitcher right now.  If he has any make-up at all...then he'll progress for 3 more years.  He'll be quite nice.

2/9/2011 10:02 PM
mr_gone
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I have one more question for you. let me get the number I need. brb
2/9/2011 10:03 PM
mr_gone
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What about a 20yo first season out of collage draft pick.   My 20mill in scouting says he will top out at. 

     Starting with Stam  63  95  72  75   48  98      Pitches 80  80  61  55  61 

He has great control good L and R splits. keeps the ball on the ground with a 98.  And good pitches 

But how much does the 63 Stam hurt him? 

And his Dur is a 24. How many IP would I get out of a guy like this?

And there is a second guy almost the same with the Dur of 33. How much of a diff would that make?

Thanks
2/9/2011 10:17 PM
mr_gone
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Posted by mr_gone on 2/9/2011 10:17:00 PM (view original):
What about a 20yo first season out of collage draft pick.   My 20mill in scouting says he will top out at. 

     Starting with Stam  63  95  72  75   48  98      Pitches 80  80  61  55  61 

He has great control good L and R splits. keeps the ball on the ground with a 98.  And good pitches 

But how much does the 63 Stam hurt him? 

And his Dur is a 24. How many IP would I get out of a guy like this?

And there is a second guy almost the same with the Dur of 33. How much of a diff would that make?

Thanks
Lots of lookers.... And no one has any feed back on these guys.  And feed back would be great. Thanks
2/9/2011 11:12 PM
hypnotoad
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63 is low STAM  for a SP but not too low to use him - probably get 5-6 good innings. He's no Cy Young candidate though. I would think 150 innings, give or take.
The 33 DUR guy will be able to bounce back better.
2/10/2011 6:44 AM
iain
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Posted by mr_gone on 2/9/2011 9:16:00 PM (view original):
The one thing that I have to think about is that SP #2 is a 22yo international FA. And some say that he will not go up from there. He is for the most part what he is. 
Assuming he gets to throw plenty of innings, and with even passable coaching, "some" are flat wrong.  He'll progress all kinds for another 2-4 seasons.
2/10/2011 8:31 AM
iain
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Posted by mr_gone on 2/9/2011 10:17:00 PM (view original):
What about a 20yo first season out of collage draft pick.   My 20mill in scouting says he will top out at. 

     Starting with Stam  63  95  72  75   48  98      Pitches 80  80  61  55  61 

He has great control good L and R splits. keeps the ball on the ground with a 98.  And good pitches 

But how much does the 63 Stam hurt him? 

And his Dur is a 24. How many IP would I get out of a guy like this?

And there is a second guy almost the same with the Dur of 33. How much of a diff would that make?

Thanks

Anywhere in the 60s is entirely useful as an SP.  You'll get 5-6 good innings every time out (maybe more if he's throwing well and keeping his pitch count down), and I'd always go for quality over quantity... who cares if he can throw 10 innings, if he won't be effective, right?  For a guy with bigtime splits, control, and pitches even down into the mid-50s is fine by me for a starter... remember that the better he is, the fewer pitches he'll likely have to throw per inning.

Rule of thumb: DUR = number of % he regains every cycle between starts.  Dur in the 30s typically means he can go every 4th day, almost no matter what.  Mid-20s, and you can go 4 or 5-man rotation, depending on pitch counts, of course.  With a staff of guys in the low 20s/teens you'd likely need 5 or even 6 reliable starters.

2/10/2011 8:36 AM
torrone
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I would definitely NOT trade the 2 guys listed in the first post for that #1 DP. He's no where near a #1 SP in my book.
2/10/2011 11:50 AM
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