The Predicament Topic

MikeT23
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Injuries happen.  When they do, it usually means you find a fill-in and wait it out.  But what happens when the fill-in exceeds your expectations?  

Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Hector Arias was acquired in the off-season to play 1B.  Went down after 26 games and was hitting about what I expected.   I signed Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Max Colome to fill in vs righties.   As an added bonus, he has options so I figured he'd go down to AAA until roster expansion when Arias came back.  Well, Colome is giving me 1.107 in OPS VR.  Sending him to AAA seems insane.   Arias could play LF but Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Vicente Fuentes is also destroying the ball.

The "right" play is to go back to Plan A.  But, when something is working, is the "smart" play to not fix something that isn't broken?
3/14/2011 10:29 AM
shobob
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What about your RF?  Arias could play there in a pinch
3/14/2011 10:33 AM
silentpadna
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Mike you know what I'd say, but I'll say it anyway (you preach this all the time):  there are three things I base this decision on.  1.  Ratings.  2.  Ratings.  3.  Ratings.

I'd be happy Colome has given you (not is giving, but has given) the 1.107 OPS.  Put the two players next to each other without the past and you know who to pick.  Make him a trade chip.  He has no better chance of continuing that trend that he did of establishing it in the first place, in fact I'd bet a lot on the under.

To me the "smart" play is always to fix what isn't broken by improving it. 

3/14/2011 10:41 AM
MikeT23
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Yeah, I've been thinking about that but my pitching would qualify as medicore and I need the D.   Not that Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Slick Weaver is winning a GG but I worry about that 9 point loss in range.  And Weaver is hitting pretty well also.   I'm leaning towards leaving LF alone, using Arias at 1B VL/RF VR, Colome at 1B VR and Weaver in RF VL.   I guess I shouldn't worry so much about RF D as Weaver does have 6 negative plays.   How much worse can Arias be out there?
3/14/2011 10:42 AM
moosep
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Since Arias is 33 and has a 46 health rating, I would consider trading him.
3/14/2011 10:43 AM
MikeT23
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Colome was unsigned 26 games into the season.   I expect his trade value to be non-existent.    The minor league options is why I chose him over a couple of other options.
3/14/2011 10:44 AM
MikeT23
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I acquired Arias this off-season.   I won't be trading him.    I fully understood the chance I was taking on his health.   I had 4 COF so I knew replacing him in the field wouldn't be a problem.   I just didn't expect his fill-in to hit as well as he did.
3/14/2011 10:46 AM
silentpadna
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The option is a value then obviously.  Of course if he gives you more runs with his bat than he gives up with his D for the player he's replacing, you gotta keep in the lineup.  It's just too bad it's much harder to define or measure a run saved versus a run created...
3/14/2011 10:47 AM
MikeT23
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For the record, there's no question that Arias plays full-time.  His ratings are superior in almost every major hitting category to any of the other players I've listed(Fuentes has better splits).  I just find it difficult to say "Colome goes to AAA" because that was the plan when I signed him.
3/14/2011 11:09 AM
taz21
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Ratings, ratings, ratings, as mentioned above.

If his OPS vR holds up over the next 86 days of Arais' injury, then move Arias to RF vs Righties, but you've got a lot of time to see if that 1.000+ OPS vR is legit or a "hot streak"

3/14/2011 11:11 AM
MikeT23
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Despite 70+ seasons, I still mis-read a rating here and there with varying results.   50ish contact with 70ish power/split/eye is still a solid player in my mind.   But he was passed over in FA.   Maybe there's something about him I don't get.
3/14/2011 11:13 AM
MikeT23
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DL time doesn't translate in links.   Arias has 11 more days on the DL.

3/14/2011 11:14 AM
taz21
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Posted by MikeT23 on 3/14/2011 11:14:00 AM (view original):

DL time doesn't translate in links.   Arias has 11 more days on the DL.

Oh, didn't realize that.  How many days until roster expansion?  Do you have any other options to send down so you can try out the 1b/RF platoon situation?
3/14/2011 11:17 AM
tecwrg
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Many years ago, when one of my buddies had his private pilot's license, we used to take day trips every once in a while (this was before wives and kids).  One Saturday we flew down to Atlantic City to the casinos.  Not big gamblers by any stretch, we ended up playing the quarter slots at Caesar's on the Boardwalk.  He got hot and won a shitload of quarters.  It was getting close to the time we wanted to leave, but he felt compelled to keep feeding his quarters back into the slots, to give it all back.  I told him "You know, you can cash those in and walk out of here with a profit.  That's allowed."  He responded by handing me handfuls of quarters so that I could feed them into another slot machine to speed up the "giving it back to the house" process.

Colome is not a 1.000+ OPS player over the long run.  You know that.  His true value is going to be closer to the low .800 range at best.  So, back to my analogy, you're playing with house money right now.  You can walk away from him now when Arias comes off the DL and put the extra .250 or so OPS in your pocket as an unexpected profit that's due to eventually run dry if you keep pushing it.
3/14/2011 11:35 AM (edited)
MikeT23
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We haven't reached the A/S break.    It "feels" like I'm carrying an extra pitcher but, as I said, my pitching is mediocre.   If I demote one of them, I know I'll need one almost immediately.   I'm carrying two RF and Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Napoleon Mulder isn't performing.   He'll likely get sent down as he has options.

3/14/2011 11:30 AM
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