I changed my ADV scouting over the rollover to something higher.  I just dont have the inclination to study each player and get detailed ratings increases and projected's on my own, so I will let my ADV work for me and suffer losing the money to it.  I went from something like 12ADV to 18ADV and noticed that projected ratings of the players in my organization changed over rollover (obviously the current ratings stayed the same, or changed due to development).

I noticed with the bump up in ADV, mostly my projected's of my players dropped 3 to 4 OVR points, with the higher ADV giving me a more realistic, accurate projected.  A very few of my prospects went UP in OVR, but only by 1 or 2 points.  

Is it way off line to "guess" that with say an ADV of 15M or so, you can look at younger players and assume subtraction of 3 points and be pretty close to where they may get with proper development?  I know some of them can go up with higher ADV but 80% of those that changed did so to a 3 point drop.  Or is this just SSS and another world/player can get something totally different?

I think its normal for most of your high end prospects to look worse after going up in ADV. There's usually a reason the other team traded him to you, or the other teams passed on him in the draft. I would say IFA's would be more 50/50 since it isnt' a draft process.
So can you assume a 3pt drop? I don't know if that the magic formula, but you might be on to something. At any rate its at least a healthy way to look at players so you aren't  dissapointed when they don't reach.
Personally i like to have a different ADV budget every year. I bounce back and forth between 19 and 20. Two completely different sets of projections, so I can compare. Going back and forth between 14 and 15...same thing.

I used OVR for simplicity, but I do look to see the three point OVR drop or rise wasn't overly wrapped up in patience skyrocketing.

I only mentioned it because some ratings are underprojected with lower ADV.   IOW, you can't use a sweeping -3 for all ratings.

Even if you go with 20 adv scouting every time, you'll get different projections each season.

Posted by shobob on 3/29/2011 4:40:00 PM (view original):
Even if you go with 20 adv scouting every time, you'll get different projections each season.

I have never seen different projections when I use the same ADV budget from season to season.

I might be wrong.  Sounds like something I should test.

When I used ADV, I was keeping track of projections to "figure it out".    Besides helping me figure out I didn't need ADV, I also noticed that the same ADV could change ratings by a point or two.   Nothing major.   A 68 wouldn't suddenly become a 93 but it might be 67.  

The most Ive ever seen a player improve by is 27 points.  So... I look at the current rating, and add 27 points, assuming that's the max any one will get. 

Well, that's a, uh, well, a system.

Posted by tecwrg on 3/29/2011 5:17:00 PM (view original):

Posted by shobob on 3/29/2011 4:40:00 PM (view original):
Even if you go with 20 adv scouting every time, you'll get different projections each season.

I have never seen different projections when I use the same ADV budget from season to season.

me either...