Working the numbers without ADV Scouting? Topic

mr_gone
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Ok to keep this as simple as I can i will keep to one set of number VR hitting.

This is player #1 and if we had 20mill in ADV Scouting.  Lets leave Make Up out of this for now.

Current  58        Projection  83

Please give an example of his progression from 58-83

This is my guess (I just ended my 4th season)

Year  #1  58        #2  65      #3  72      #4 76     #5  83        #6            #7

My goal for this is to be able to read players and project them after 1-3 seasons.  Without needing AVD Scouting.


Part #2   Player #2  Current 58     Projection  72

Year  #1  58       #2  65      #3   72      #4         #5         #6        #7  

Is there a chance he follows the same patterns to start. And just stops developing a lot sooner?  

Or will his numbers be more spread out like this.

Year  #1 58       #2  62      #3  66     #4   70     #5  72       #6        #7    

This is a vary important part. I want to know and feel safe that if I see the numbers jump +6  +7 per season. That I can feel safe knowing he will put on and extra 10-12 more points over the next few seasons.

*Extra Credit

At what point do you look at Make Up and think "This Guy will never hit his numbers with a Make Up this low" is there a cut off points?

Thanks
4/19/2011 7:29 PM
MikeT23
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0 ADV doesn't work that way.  At least not for me.  You have to have some development before projecting what he'll be.  

4/19/2011 7:37 PM
mr_gone
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Posted by MikeT23 on 4/19/2011 7:37:00 PM (view original):

0 ADV doesn't work that way.  At least not for me.  You have to have some development before projecting what he'll be.  

If that is the case there is no diffrence between 0 and 20mill in Adv Scouting. We pay for the Adv Scouting so we can see the projections. If you have 20mill in Adv Scouting it gives you a good base of a players starting and ending numbers. So there would have to be a typical way for a player to go from current to projected numbers. We are basing this off of knowing all the info ahead of time --> 20mill spent in Adv Scouting.
4/19/2011 7:47 PM
plague
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Personally I cant tell from the little info you gave, I need to see the players card and the finances of the person who drafted the player. Things that you are not listing are important like age when drafted.. When I project I just project approx overall numbers. Its not exact science and its not as good as having 20 advanced scouting, but in my opinion its worth using the extra 20 in advanced scouting elsewhere.
4/19/2011 8:24 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by mr_gone on 4/19/2011 7:47:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 4/19/2011 7:37:00 PM (view original):

0 ADV doesn't work that way.  At least not for me.  You have to have some development before projecting what he'll be.  

If that is the case there is no diffrence between 0 and 20mill in Adv Scouting. We pay for the Adv Scouting so we can see the projections. If you have 20mill in Adv Scouting it gives you a good base of a players starting and ending numbers. So there would have to be a typical way for a player to go from current to projected numbers. We are basing this off of knowing all the info ahead of time --> 20mill spent in Adv Scouting.
Good luck getting a correct answer on the data you provided.
4/19/2011 8:44 PM
nauds3000
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Posted by mr_gone on 4/19/2011 7:47:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 4/19/2011 7:37:00 PM (view original):

0 ADV doesn't work that way.  At least not for me.  You have to have some development before projecting what he'll be.  

If that is the case there is no diffrence between 0 and 20mill in Adv Scouting. We pay for the Adv Scouting so we can see the projections. If you have 20mill in Adv Scouting it gives you a good base of a players starting and ending numbers. So there would have to be a typical way for a player to go from current to projected numbers. We are basing this off of knowing all the info ahead of time --> 20mill spent in Adv Scouting.
You dont need 20 Adv scouting to get an accurate current rating
4/19/2011 8:59 PM
MikeT23
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Actually, I'm not going to stop there.  

 

Here's the problem with threads like these:  OP asks a question.  People say "Can't really answer that with the info given."   OP doesn't accept that answer and insists there is another answer that he'll find acceptable.

So, here you go....He'll go 58, 67, 73, 78, 81, 83.     Better?
 

4/19/2011 9:00 PM
mr_gone
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Posted by MikeT23 on 4/19/2011 9:00:00 PM (view original):
Actually, I'm not going to stop there.  

 

Here's the problem with threads like these:  OP asks a question.  People say "Can't really answer that with the info given."   OP doesn't accept that answer and insists there is another answer that he'll find acceptable.

So, here you go....He'll go 58, 67, 73, 78, 81, 83.     Better?
 

You would think with 12K games played it would have been easier to ball park some number. There is a formula for winning in this game. And it is safe to say that in any given league more then half the team on following it. Take out the extreme top and bottom. And still more then half the team would be able to give typical results.
4/19/2011 9:38 PM
MikeT23
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Did you want a correct answer or just one that made you happy?    There's a lot that goes into using 0 ADV correctly.   Just throwing out some random numbers and asking "What's the answer?" isn't going to give you any insight. 
4/19/2011 9:40 PM
a_ersberg
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If X amount of adv scouting dollars gave you a definite answer, we would all budget X dollars and the game would be a little easier.  Since you won't see the exact projections of every single player, with 0 or 20 mil... what's the point? 
4/19/2011 10:18 PM
boogerlips
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I'm confused
4/20/2011 5:11 AM
Crump123
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Posted by a_ersberg on 4/19/2011 10:18:00 PM (view original):
If X amount of adv scouting dollars gave you a definite answer, we would all budget X dollars and the game would be a little easier.  Since you won't see the exact projections of every single player, with 0 or 20 mil... what's the point? 
X amount does give you a definite answer, it's just +/- from the actual depending on how much you spend.
4/20/2011 5:40 AM
travisg
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I use 0 adv for all my teams, and the first thing you've got to do is get over worrying too much about projections and pay more attention to current ratings (even for younger players).

If I really need to closely assess where a player might end up when he's fully developed (e.g., when you're making a trade), I find some ML players whose current ratings are similar to the younger player's projections and look to see where the older players' ratings were at the same age. That gives you a pretty good idea if the prospect stands a chance of coming close (repeat: close) to those projections. Of course, you can't control for coaching, playing time, injuries, promotion, defensive placement, etc., for players on other teams, so this is still an inexact science.
4/20/2011 8:20 AM (edited)
MikeT23
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Yeah, I was just coming back to say that I think I see the disconnect.   Owners using 0 ADV aren't that concerned with "projections".   We tend to worry with current and development.    Every owner doesn't develop players the same so it's difficult to judge a player you didn't sign.  You have to look at how that particular owner has drafted, signed and developed players to figure out if he's doing a good job with young players when considering a trade.  That's why the original question can't be answered with any accuracy.

4/20/2011 9:01 AM (edited)
jtrinsey
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Posted by MikeT23 on 4/20/2011 9:01:00 AM (view original):
Yeah, I was just coming back to say that I think I see the disconnect.   Owners using 0 ADV aren't that concerned with "projections".   We tend to worry with current and development.    Every owner doesn't develop players the same so it's difficult to judge a player you didn't sign.  You have to look at how that particular owner has drafted, signed and developed players to figure out if he's doing a good job with young players when considering a trade.  That's why the original question can't be answered with any accuracy.

Agreed. Also, and I could be a little bit different from other owners, but I'm not even that concerned with trying to figure out exact projections. It's more of, is this guy going to be:

(1) A star
(2) A solid starter who is an acceptable fill-in for a position that will open up in 2-3 years
(3) A useful bench player

Now, there obviously gets to be some fuzzines between the two categories, but, for the most part, whether a guy gets to 85 or 87 control really isn't going to make or break him. Generally speaking, you aren't going to be trading for "stars" anyway, because every owner overvalues star (and even non-star) prospects. So the price you would have to pay isn't worth it.

So it's really a question of, "is this guy going to be a starter or middling bench player?" Generally speaking, it's pretty easy to tell. If you aren't sure, he probably won't be a starter and you will be better off just leaving that spot to a cheap FA that year.
4/20/2011 9:19 AM
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