Early in IFA signings... I need a future SS, what do you think of this guy?

SS - 18 Yrs, Bats L, Throws R

General & Fielding Ratings
Event	Season	Height	Weight	OV	RA	GL	AS	AA	PC	DU	HE	SP	PA	TP	MK
Current	-	5-8	163	57	65	71	71	71	15	51	64	68	45	58	92
Projected	-	5-10	175	91	71	85	90	84	15	90	69	71	66	54	100

Batting & Pitching Ratings
Event	Season	CN	PW	LH	RH	BE	BR	BU	PP	ST	CT	LH	RH	VE	GB	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5
Current	-	57	54	46	58	66	58	46	52	18	4	7	9	15	21	64	0	0	0	0
Projected	-	88	59	65	93	78	79	66	56	29	8	14	16	15	26	72	0	0	0	0

Not sure.  But 71 range? Looks like a 3B.

yea, if he's a 3B his hitting ratings arent very good

He'll be a third baseman.  But I would happily invest $20mil for this prospect.  A lefty like this who'll end up with a vR somewhere in the high 80s should hit close to .300. 

I'd probably spend.  Here's why:
1)  As he is (tempering his offensive projections some) he's a .280/.360/460 3B with ridiculously good defense, which is probably worth $14M +/- 2.
2)  As an 18 yo Intl his range will probably improve more than 6; that's probably a bad projection, and if his range hits 80 he's well worth the $20M.

There some risk here but it's not huge.

Posted by MikeT23 on 6/18/2011 8:32:00 PM (view original):
No.  1/9th of your budget for a weak-hitting 3B seems insane.

1/9th of your budget on ANYONE is insane.

with 92 makeup this guy will probably be better than his projected ratings, I have 16 M in IFA scouting as well

In bizarro world. 

I think it depends on the world.  Are there 20 teams with $20MM in their prospect budget and a healthy amount in IFA Scouting?  If so, you may want to jump on him while everyone else waits for something better, lest you be left with a truck full of prospect $$ and no good prospects to sign.  Money left in your prospect budget at the end does you no good, and you'd have to give up half of it to use it to sign a free agent (assuming one that's worthy of signing is still available).

But regardless of what percentage of your budget it is, you have to weigh this guy against whatever else you think you can get for that money that's allocated to prospects.  If you think this is the best you can do, go for it.  Also, if you've got a top 10 pick in the amateur draft, I would want to make sure I reserved $4MM in prospect payroll to be able to sign him.

Oh, and if 20 teams have $20MM in prospect budget and are investing in IFA Scouting, it may be time to start directing that money elsewhere.

I had no idea people considered Wade Boggs a "weak-hitting 3B".

Well, Boggs' EYE would've been about 10 points higher than this guy's projected, but this guy's projected PWR is probably a bit higher than Boggs' and he'll steal more bases too.

I've got a guy in HR with very similar ratings to the projected line - basically you just flip the vRH and EYE and drop 10 points in PWR - and he's a career .290/.400/.425 hitter playing in a home park that kills homers. In a neutral park that's probably .300/.410/.450 or so. Flip the vrH and EYE and you're looking at .320/.410/.460 or thereabouts. Boogs' career line was .328/.415/.443.

Given his position, handedness, etc. calling that INTL "Boggs with a bit more power and speed" seems a pretty reasonable comp to me.

Of course that assumes he reaches those projections - 30 points in CON and 35 in vRH might be asking a bit much - but he's 18 and has great Makeup so it's not out of the question.